Pinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska · Conference game
Closing line
NEB -2.5✓ MSU covered by 0.5
NEB -2.5✓ MSU covered by 0.5Closing total146.5Under by 32.5
 MSU | This season | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| 12-1 | Record | 13-0 |
| 5-8 | ATS | 7-6 |
| 5-8 | O/U | 5-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 72–73 NEB · ✓ NEB (50%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 33 | 23 | 56 |
| NEB | 33 | 25 | 58 |
1st half: MSU 33, NEB 33 (tied). The model had MSU by 0.1 and a total of 67.9 (actual 66).
Team stats
| MSU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-50 34% | Field goals | 18-57 32% |
| 10-28 36% | 3-pointers | 13-37 35% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 9-13 69% |
| 45 11 off | Rebounds | 30 8 off |
| 12 | Assists | 15 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 21 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 10 | Points in paint | 10 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 35 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 2-8 | 0-4 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 32 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7-10 | 5-6 |
| Carson Cooper C | 31 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Coen Carr F | 30 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Kur Teng G | 28 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4-15 | 4-12 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Scott F | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cam Ward F | 13 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Sanders, Divine Ugochukwu, Brennan Walton, Colin Walton, Kaleb Glenn
| NEB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rienk Mast F | 36 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 6-15 | 6-13 |
| Jamarques Lawrence G | 33 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Sam Hoiberg G | 32 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Berke Buyuktuncel C | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Pryce Sandfort F | 21 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5-13 | 3-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Braden Frager F | 30 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 3-8 | 3-5 |
| Cale Jacobsen G | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jared Garcia F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Henry Burt, Connor Essegian, Ugnius Jarusevicius, Kendall Blue, Justin Bolis, Will Cooper, Quentin Rhymes, Leo Curtis
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNEB -2.5
ModelNEB -0.1
Model edgeMSU +2.4
W MSU covered
Total
Market146.5
Model144.9
Model edgeUnder 1.6
W Under
Projected score
MSU 72.4 · NEB 72.5
MSU 56 · NEB 58
Win probability
NEB 50%
1st half
Spread
MSU -0.1
tied
Total
67.9
66 points
Projected score
MSU 34 · NEB 33.9
MSU 33 · NEB 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEB -1.5
1 → NEB
CloseNEB -2.5
1 pt toward NEB
Total
Open145.5
▲ 1
Close146.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MSU +114 · NEB -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEB -1.5 · closed NEB -2.5 · moved 1 toward NEBmodel NEB -0
model NEB -0
Opened 145.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 1 upmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| NEB | 10-0 100% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSU 4–1 NEBMSU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MSU 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | NEB 52 @ MSU 89 | MSU -6.5 | MSU W |
| Dec 10, 2023-24 | MSU 70 @ NEB 77 | NEB +3.5 | NEB W |
| Feb 28, 2022-23 | MSU 80 @ NEB 67 | NEB +4.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | NEB 56 @ MSU 74 | MSU -7.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 5, 2021-22 | NEB 67 @ MSU 79 | MSU -15 | NEB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
13 games played
Straight up
12-1
92% wins
Against the spread
5-8
38% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
covered 5didn’t cover 8avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
over 5under 8avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Nebraska
13 games played
Straight up
13-0
100% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WGA | W 86-53 | -24.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 8 | vs FIU | W 96-66 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs UMES | W 69-50 | -35.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 15 | vs OU | W 105-99 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 20 | vs UNM | W 84-72 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 21 | vs KSU | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs WIN | W 80-73 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 166.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 29 | vs UPST | W 72-63 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 7 | vs CREI | W 71-50 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 10 | vs WIS | W 90-60 | -1.5 | W +28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ ILL | W 83-80 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs UND | W 78-55 | -29.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 30 | vs UNH | W 86-55 | -31.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
+8.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+8.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−16.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+4.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+3.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
−0.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−7.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−16.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
+15.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
+28.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+12.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−6.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
−14.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+5.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−27.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+40.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+4.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
+2.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−13.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−22.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
−34.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
−8.5
13
@ILL
ILLW 83-80
+6.5
21
vsUND
UNDW 78-55
−18.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 86-55
−5.5
over 5under 8avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
12-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Cornell114–97
- Wvs Oakland79–70
- Wvs Toledo92–69
- W@ Penn State76–72
- Lvs Duke60–66
4 days since their last game.
Nebraska
13-0 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs New Hampshire86–55
- Wvs North Dakota78–55
- W@ Illinois83–80
- Wvs Wisconsin90–60
- Wvs Creighton71–50
3 days since their last game.