KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville · Conference game
Closing line
LOU -14.5✓ VT covered by 0.5
LOU -14.5✓ VT covered by 0.5Closing total160.5Under by 4.5
 VT | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15-5 | Record | 13-5 |
| 12-8 | ATS | 10-8 |
| 11-9 | O/U | 8-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VT 74–88 LOU · ✓ LOU (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 22 | 49 | 71 |
| LOU | 37 | 48 | 85 |
1st half: VT 22, LOU 37 (LOU by 15). The model had LOU by 8.3 and a total of 75.8 (actual 59).
Team stats
| VT | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-62 40% | Field goals | 31-66 47% |
| 16-30 53% | 3-pointers | 13-33 39% |
| 5-8 63% | Free throws | 10-13 77% |
| 31 9 off | Rebounds | 44 15 off |
| 16 | Assists | 17 |
| 5 | Steals | 8 |
| 7 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 14 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| VT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hammond G | 36 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 6-11 | 4-5 |
| Jailen Bedford G | 35 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 8-15 | 6-8 |
| Amani Hansberry F | 32 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 4-12 | 3-6 |
| Neo Avdalas G | 23 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1-8 | 0-2 |
| Christian Gurdak C | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tobi Lawal F | 30 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Jaden Schutt G | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Izaiah Pasha G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Antonio Dorn C | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tyler Johnson, Sin'Cere Jones, Brett Freeman, Shamarius Peterkin, Solomon Davis
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 32 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 32 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 5-14 | 4-11 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 29 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 7-11 | 3-6 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 28 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-7 |
| Sananda Fru F | 27 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrian Wooley G | 21 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mouhamed Camara, Khani Rooths, Will Hanke, Kasean Pryor
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -14.5
ModelLOU -14.1
Model edgeVT +0.4
W VT covered
Total
Market160.5
Model162.0
Model edgeOver 1.5
L Under
Projected score
VT 74 · LOU 88
VT 71 · LOU 85
Win probability
LOU 89%
1st half
Spread
LOU -8.3
LOU -15.0
Total
75.8
59 points
Projected score
VT 33.8 · LOU 42
VT 22 · LOU 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -11.5
3 → LOU
CloseLOU -14.5
3 pts toward LOU
Total
Open159.5
▲ 1
Close160.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
VT +800 · LOU -1350
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -11.5 · closed LOU -14.5 · moved 3 toward LOUmodel LOU -14
model LOU -14
Opened 159.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 1 upmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VT | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
VT 4–1 LOUVT leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · VT 4-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | LOU 71 @ VT 66 | VT +10.5 | VT W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | VT 80 @ LOU 64 | LOU +7.5 | VT W |
| Dec 3, 2023-24 | LOU 68 @ VT 75 | VT -13.5 | LOU W |
| Feb 28, 2022-23 | VT 71 @ LOU 54 | LOU +10.5 | VT W |
| Mar 1, 2021-22 | LOU 43 @ VT 75 | VT -10.5 | VT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Virginia Tech
20 games played
Straight up
15-5
75% wins
Against the spread
12-8
60% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-9
55% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CHSO | W 98-67 | -18.5 | W +12.5 | 146.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 8 | vs PROV | W 107-101 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 12 | vs JOES | W 94-59 | -12.5 | W +22.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 16 | vs CLT | W 84-76 | -18.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 19 | vs BRY | W 78-61 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 26 | vs CSU | W 66-64 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 27 | vs SMC | L 66-77 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 28 | vs VCU | L 68-86 | +2.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 2 | @ SC | W 86-83 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs GMU | W 73-62 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 11 | vs WCU | W 96-74 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 14 | vs UMES | W 82-53 | -27.5 | W +1.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs ELON | W 82-81 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 158.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs UVA | W 95-85 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ WAKE | L 78-81 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 7 | vs STAN | L 68-69 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 10 | vs CAL | W 78-75 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 14 | @ SMU | L 76-77 | +8.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 17 | vs ND | W 89-76 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | @ SYR | W 76-74 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCHSO
CHSOW 98-67
+12.5
8
vsPROV
PROVW 107-101
+8.5
12
vsJOES
JOESW 94-59
+22.5
16
vsCLT
CLTW 84-76
−10.5
19
vsBRY
BRYW 78-61
−7.5
26
vsCSU
CSUW 66-64
−2.5
27
vsSMC
SMCL 66-77
−5.5
28
vsVCU
VCUL 68-86
−15.5
2
@SC
SCW 86-83
+5.5
6
vsGMU
GMUW 73-62
+6.5
11
vsWCU
WCUW 96-74
+1.5
14
vsUMES
UMESW 82-53
+1.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 82-81
−11.5
31
vsUVA
UVAW 95-85
+15.5
3
@WAKE
WAKEL 78-81
+2.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 68-69
−4.5
10
vsCAL
CALW 78-75
−2.5
14
@SMU
SMUL 76-77
+7.5
17
vsND
NDW 89-76
+6.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 76-74
+5.5
covered 12didn’t cover 8avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCHSO
CHSOW 98-67
+18.5
8
vsPROV
PROVW 107-101
+50.5
12
vsJOES
JOESW 94-59
−5.5
16
vsCLT
CLTW 84-76
+14.5
19
vsBRY
BRYW 78-61
−12.5
26
vsCSU
CSUW 66-64
−23.5
27
vsSMC
SMCL 66-77
−1.5
28
vsVCU
VCUL 68-86
+0.5
2
@SC
SCW 86-83
+19.5
6
vsGMU
GMUW 73-62
−9.5
11
vsWCU
WCUW 96-74
+17.5
14
vsUMES
UMESW 82-53
−4.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 82-81
+4.5
31
vsUVA
UVAW 95-85
+26.5
3
@WAKE
WAKEL 78-81
+5.5
7
vsSTAN
STANL 68-69
−11.5
10
vsCAL
CALW 78-75
+4.5
14
@SMU
SMUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsND
NDW 89-76
+21.5
21
@SYR
SYRW 76-74
−2.5
over 11under 9avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
18 games played
Straight up
13-5
72% wins
Against the spread
10-8
56% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-10
44% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs MEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vsUVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
covered 10didn’t cover 8avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
over 8under 10avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Virginia Tech
15-5 overall · 4-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Syracuse76–74
- Wvs Notre Dame89–76
- L@ SMU76–77
- Wvs California78–75
- Lvs Stanford68–69
3 days since their last game.
Louisville
13-5 overall · 3-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Pitt100–59
- Lvs Virginia70–79
- Wvs Boston College75–62
- Lvs Duke73–84
- L@ Stanford76–80
A week or more of rest.