Siegel Center · at VCU · Conference game
Closing line
VCU -8.5✓ VCU covered by 17.5
VCU -8.5✓ VCU covered by 17.5Closing total147.5Over by 24.5
 DAY | This season | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| 15-8 | Record | 17-6 |
| 9-14 | ATS | 10-13 |
| 9-14 | O/U | 12-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DAY 73–78 VCU · ✓ VCU (68%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAY | 27 | 46 | 73 |
| VCU | 50 | 49 | 99 |
1st half: DAY 27, VCU 50 (VCU by 23). The model had VCU by 3.1 and a total of 70.8 (actual 77).
Team stats
| DAY | VCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-65 37% | Field goals | 30-64 47% |
| 7-19 37% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 18-30 60% | Free throws | 31-38 82% |
| 41 13 off | Rebounds | 44 11 off |
| 9 | Assists | 15 |
| 6 | Steals | 11 |
| 3 | Blocks | 7 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 28 | Fouls | 24 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 30 |
Players
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 35 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 6-16 | 1-6 |
| Keonte Jones G | 33 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 31 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Derkack G | 29 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 3-13 | 1-2 |
| Jacob Conner F | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bryce Heard G | 25 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-2 |
| Damon Friery F | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Sean Pouedet G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey, De'Shayne Montgomery, Adam Njie, Jaron McKie
| VCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadrian Tracey G | 30 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 9-12 | 6-9 |
| Lazar Djokovic F | 26 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Brandon Jennings G | 24 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-9 | 0-1 |
| Nyk Lewis G | 18 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Barry Evans F | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrence Hill Jr. G | 28 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-4 |
| Michael Belle F | 22 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Tyrell Ward G | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Ahmad Nowell G | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Keyshawn Mitchell F | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Tillery G | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jordann Dumont F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Obinnaya Okafor, Christian Fermin
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVCU -8.5
ModelVCU -5.4
Model edgeDAY +3.1
L VCU covered
Total
Market147.5
Model151.3
Model edgeOver 3.8
W Over
Projected score
DAY 72.9 · VCU 78.3
DAY 73 · VCU 99
Win probability
VCU 68%
1st half
Spread
VCU -3.1
VCU -23.0
Total
70.8
77 points
Projected score
DAY 33.8 · VCU 36.9
DAY 27 · VCU 50
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVCU -6.5
2 → VCU
CloseVCU -8.5
2 pts toward VCU
Total
Open148.5
▼ 1
Close147.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
DAY +310 · VCU -395
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VCU -6.5 · closed VCU -8.5 · moved 2 toward VCUmodel VCU -5.5
model VCU -5.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 1 downmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAY | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| VCU | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
DAY 4–5 VCUVCU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · DAY 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | DAY 79 @ VCU 76 | VCU -9.5 | DAY W |
| Feb 7, 2024-25 | VCU 73 @ DAY 68 | DAY +0.5 | VCU W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | VCU 86 @ DAY 91 | DAY -8.5 | VCU W |
| Feb 9, 2023-24 | DAY 47 @ VCU 49 | VCU +2.5 | VCU W |
| Mar 12, 2022-23 | DAY 56 vs VCU 68 | VCU -1.5 | VCU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Dayton
23 games played
Straight up
15-8
65% wins
Against the spread
9-14
39% covers · avg −3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-14
39% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | vs FSU | W 97-69 | -6.5 | W +21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 20 | vs LIB | L 61-64 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vs FOR | W 63-56 | -16.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 3 | @ LUC | W 70-68 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 6 | vs GW | W 79-72 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 13 | @ DUQ | W 71-65 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 16 | vsLUC | W 78-51 | -16.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 21 | @ LAS | L 64-67 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 24 | @ JOES | L 74-81 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 139.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 27 | vs URI | L 76-81 | -9.5 | L −14.5 | 138.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 30 | @ SLU | L 71-102 | +9.5 | L −21.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 3 | vs SBU | W 72-70 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+21.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−12.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−9.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−5.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
+4.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
+3.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
+10.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−12.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
−13.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
−14.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
−21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−5.5
covered 9didn’t cover 14avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+3.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−17.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−20.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−2.5
6
vsGW
GWW 79-72
−3.5
13
@DUQ
DUQW 71-65
−16.5
16
vsLUC
LUCW 78-51
−12.5
21
@LAS
LASL 64-67
−6.5
24
@JOES
JOESL 74-81
+15.5
27
vsURI
URIL 76-81
+18.5
30
@SLU
SLUL 71-102
+21.5
3
vsSBU
SBUW 72-70
−2.5
over 9under 14avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
VCU
23 games played
Straight up
17-6
74% wins
Against the spread
10-13
43% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-11
52% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WAG | W 103-74 | -25.5 | W +3.5 | 133.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 7 | vs USU | L 77-80 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs SPU | W 78-61 | -20.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 17 | @ NCSU | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs COPP | W 101-58 | -32.5 | W +10.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 26 | vs USF | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs VAN | L 74-89 | +6.5 | L −8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs VT | W 86-68 | -2.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 5 | vs SAM | W 83-57 | -19.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs UNM | L 78-81 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 15 | vs NIA | W 84-58 | -30.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 18 | vs AMER | W 105-83 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 22 | vs RID | W 100-79 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 145.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 31 | vsSBU | W 89-82 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 3 | @DUQ | W 93-80 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 7 | vsSLU | L 62-71 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @ GMU | L 80-86 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 14 | @URI | W 84-75 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 19 | vsJOES | W 79-72 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 24 | @ DAV | W 75-69 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 27 | vs RICH | W 77-69 | -12.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 30 | vsLUC | W 89-75 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 3 | @FOR | W 63-59 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+3.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−0.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−3.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
+5.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+10.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
+10.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
−8.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+15.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
+6.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
−11.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−4.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+2.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
−9.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
−2.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−10.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
−7.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+5.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−7.5
24
@DAV
DAVW 75-69
+0.5
27
vsRICH
RICHW 77-69
−4.5
30
vsLUC
LUCW 89-75
−4.5
3
@FOR
FORW 63-59
−3.5
covered 10didn’t cover 13avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+43.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−6.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−8.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
−0.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+7.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
−28.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
+1.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+0.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
−14.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
+1.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−1.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+33.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
+33.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
+13.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−38.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
+21.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+11.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−0.5
24
@DAV
DAVW 75-69
−4.5
27
vsRICH
RICHW 77-69
−9.5
30
vsLUC
LUCW 89-75
+13.5
3
@FOR
FORW 63-59
−24.5
over 12under 11avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Dayton
15-8 overall · 6-4 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs St Bonaventure72–70
- L@ Saint Louis71–102
- Lvs Rhode Island76–81
- L@ Saint Joseph's74–81
- L@ La Salle64–67
3 days since their last game.
VCU
17-6 overall · 8-2 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Fordham63–59
- Wvs Loyola Chicago89–75
- Wvs Richmond77–69
- W@ Davidson75–69
- Wvs Saint Joseph's79–72
3 days since their last game.