The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota · Conference game
Closing line
MINN -3.5✓ USC covered by 4.5
MINN -3.5✓ USC covered by 4.5Closing total147.5Under by 8.5
 USC | This season | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3 | Record | 10-5 |
| 6-8 | ATS | 6-9 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 4-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 75–76 MINN · ✗ MINN (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 35 | 28 | 7 | 70 |
| MINN | 30 | 33 | 6 | 69 |
1st half: USC 35, MINN 30 (USC by 5). The model had MINN by 0.4 and a total of 70.7 (actual 65).
Team stats
| USC | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-57 44% | Field goals | 24-62 39% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 12-35 34% |
| 14-17 82% | Free throws | 9-15 60% |
| 42 15 off | Rebounds | 33 15 off |
| 18 | Assists | 19 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 6 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam Woods G | 44 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2-10 | 0-4 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 42 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 40 | 29 | 2 | 8 | 9-20 | 4-10 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 28 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gabe Dynes C | 37 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Rodney Rice, Alijah Arenas
| MINN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Durkin F | 45 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-6 |
| Cade Tyson G | 45 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 5-16 | 3-9 |
| Isaac Asuma G | 33 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Langston Reynolds G | 31 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 5-11 | 1-4 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F | 30 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kai Shinholster G | 23 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Grayson Grove F | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
Did not play: RJ Spencer, Maximus Gizzi, Max Lorenson, Chansey Willis Jr., Nehemiah Turner, BJ Omot, Chance Stephens, Robert Vaihola
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMINN -3.5
ModelMINN -0.9
Model edgeUSC +2.6
W USC covered
Total
Market147.5
Model150.9
Model edgeOver 3.4
L Under
Projected score
USC 75 · MINN 75.9
USC 70 · MINN 69
Win probability
MINN 53%
1st half
Spread
MINN -0.4
USC -5.0
Total
70.7
65 points
Projected score
USC 35.1 · MINN 35.5
USC 35 · MINN 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMINN -2.5
1 → MINN
CloseMINN -3.5
1 pt toward MINN
Total
Open145.5
▲ 2
Close147.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
USC +142 · MINN -170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MINN -2.5 · closed MINN -3.5 · moved 1 toward MINNmodel MINN -1
model MINN -1
Opened 145.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 2 upmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| MINN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USC 0–1 MINNMINN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USC 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | MINN 69 @ USC 66 | USC -7.5 | MINN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 2 | @ MICH | L 66-96 | +22.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 5 | @ MSU | L 51-80 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−7.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−17.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
2
@MICH
MICHL 66-96
−11.5
5
@MSU
MSUL 51-80
−20.5
over 8under 6avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Minnesota
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-11
27% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs GWEB | W 87-60 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 8 | vs ALCN | W 95-50 | -31.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 12 | @ MIZ | L 60-83 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | vs GB | W 72-65 | -25.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 18 | vs CHST | W 66-54 | -27.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 22 | vs SF | L 65-77 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs STAN | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SCU | L 75-86 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 3 | vs IU | W 73-64 | +7.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 10 | @ PUR | L 57-85 | +19.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 14 | vs TXSO | W 89-53 | -21.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 21 | vs CAM | W 78-50 | -13.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 29 | vs FDU | W 60-43 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 103 |
| Jan 3 | @ NU | W 84-78 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs IOWA | W 70-67 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
+13.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−18.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−15.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
−13.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−1.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
−5.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
+16.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−8.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
+14.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
+14.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−8.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+10.5
6
vsIOWA
IOWAW 70-67
+7.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
−7.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−9.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−24.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
+1.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−2.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
+22.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
−7.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−1.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
−2.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
−17.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−36.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+23.5
6
vsIOWA
IOWAW 70-67
+6.5
over 4under 11avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
11-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Michigan St51–80
- L@ Michigan66–96
- Wvs UTSA97–70
- Wvs Washington St68–61
- W@ San Diego94–81
4 days since their last game.
Minnesota
10-5 overall · 3-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Iowa70–67
- W@ Northwestern84–78
- Wvs FDU60–43
- Wvs Campbell78–50
- Wvs Texas Southern89–53
3 days since their last game.