Stegeman Coliseum · at Georgia · Conference game
Closing line
UGA -10.5✓ MISS covered by 12.5
UGA -10.5✓ MISS covered by 12.5Closing total158.5Over by 33.5
 MISS | This season | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| 9-7 | Record | 14-2 |
| 4-12 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 10-6 | O/U | 9-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MISS 75–87 UGA · ✗ UGA (85%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 35 | 52 | 10 | 97 |
| UGA | 40 | 47 | 8 | 95 |
1st half: MISS 35, UGA 40 (UGA by 5). The model had UGA by 6.8 and a total of 75.8 (actual 75).
Team stats
| MISS | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-70 51% | Field goals | 27-72 38% |
| 11-24 46% | 3-pointers | 15-35 43% |
| 14-19 74% | Free throws | 26-34 76% |
| 37 12 off | Rebounds | 42 21 off |
| 15 | Assists | 16 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 24 | Fouls | 17 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patton Pinkins G | 40 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 7-9 | 3-3 |
| Ilias Kamardine G | 30 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Malik Dia F | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| James Scott F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Eduardo Klafke G | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Storr G | 38 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 11-22 | 2-6 |
| Corey Chest F | 33 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Kezza Giffa G | 21 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Travis Perry G | 18 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Koren Johnson G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Hobert Grayson IV, Zach Day, Max Smith, Niko Bundalo, Tylis Jordan
| UGA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wilkinson G | 40 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 9-19 | 6-12 |
| Kanon Catchings F | 33 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 5-11 | 4-5 |
| Jordan Ross G | 31 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Somto Cyril C | 30 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Blue Cain G | 21 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0-7 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Marcus Millender G | 29 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4-12 | 3-7 |
| Dylan James F | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Justin Bailey G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Justin Abson F | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jake Wilkins F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kareem Stagg F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaden Newell, Markel Jennings, Jackson McVey, Brandon Klatsky
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUGA -10.5
ModelUGA -11.6
Model edgeUGA +1.1
L MISS covered
Total
Market158.5
Model161.8
Model edgeOver 3.3
W Over
Projected score
MISS 75.1 · UGA 86.7
MISS 97 · UGA 95
Win probability
UGA 85%
1st half
Spread
UGA -6.8
UGA -5.0
Total
75.8
75 points
Projected score
MISS 34.5 · UGA 41.3
MISS 35 · UGA 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUGA -10.5
no move
CloseUGA -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open158.5
no move
Close158.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MISS +490 · UGA -675
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UGA -10.5 · unchangedmodel UGA -11.5
model UGA -11.5
Opened 158.5 · unchangedmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| UGA | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MISS 3–2 UGAMISS leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MISS 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | UGA 51 @ MISS 63 | MISS -4.5 | MISS W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | MISS 66 @ UGA 69 | UGA -1.5 | UGA W |
| Feb 7, 2022-23 | MISS 78 @ UGA 74 | UGA +1.5 | MISS W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | UGA 62 @ MISS 58 | MISS -5.5 | UGA W |
| Feb 19, 2021-22 | MISS 85 @ UGA 68 | UGA +1.5 | MISS W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ole Miss
16 games played
Straight up
9-7
56% wins
Against the spread
4-12
25% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-6
63% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs MEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs UTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIA | L 66-75 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | @ SJU | L 58-63 | +13.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs USM | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs AAMU | W 80-66 | -20.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 21 | vs NCSU | L 62-76 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALCN | W 79-43 | -28.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 3 | @ OU | L 70-86 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 7 | vs ARK | L 87-94 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | vs MIZ | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−10.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
+8.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−8.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
−6.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
+7.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
−3.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 12avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
−30.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−0.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
+10.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−10.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
−26.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
+9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
+27.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+1.5
over 10under 6avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Georgia
16 games played
Straight up
14-2
88% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BELL | W 104-59 | -23.5 | W +21.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 5 | vs UMES | W 94-29 | -33.5 | W +31.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 9 | vs MORE | W 120-81 | -28.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 201 |
| Nov 14 | vs GT | W 92-87 | -15.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 17 | vs FAMU | W 87-57 | -40.5 | L −10.5 | 170.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs XAV | W 78-77 | -10.5 | L −9.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 23 | vs CLEM | L 94-97 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 29 | vs TNTC | W 123-81 | -34.5 | W +7.5 | 160.5 | O 204 |
| Dec 2 | @ FSU | W 107-73 | +1.5 | W +35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 13 | vs CIN | W 84-65 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 18 | vs WCU | W 112-82 | -32.5 | L −2.5 | 167.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 22 | vs WGA | W 103-74 | -36.5 | L −7.5 | 173.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 29 | vs LIU | W 89-74 | -30.5 | L −15.5 | 179.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 3 | vs AUB | W 104-100 | -6.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | @ FLA | L 77-92 | +9.5 | L −5.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Jan 10 | @ SC | W 75-70 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBELL
BELLW 104-59
+21.5
5
vsUMES
UMESW 94-29
+31.5
9
vsMORE
MOREW 120-81
+10.5
14
vsGT
GTW 92-87
−10.5
17
vsFAMU
FAMUW 87-57
−10.5
21
vsXAV
XAVW 78-77
−9.5
23
vsCLEM
CLEML 94-97
−1.5
29
vsTNTC
TNTCW 123-81
+7.5
2
@FSU
FSUW 107-73
+35.5
13
vsCIN
CINW 84-65
+13.5
18
vsWCU
WCUW 112-82
−2.5
22
vsWGA
WGAW 103-74
−7.5
29
vsLIU
LIUW 89-74
−15.5
3
vsAUB
AUBW 104-100
−2.5
6
@FLA
FLAL 77-92
−5.5
10
@SC
SCW 75-70
+0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBELL
BELLW 104-59
+12.5
5
vsUMES
UMESW 94-29
−19.5
9
vsMORE
MOREW 120-81
+50.5
14
vsGT
GTW 92-87
+23.5
17
vsFAMU
FAMUW 87-57
−26.5
21
vsXAV
XAVW 78-77
−10.5
23
vsCLEM
CLEML 94-97
+38.5
29
vsTNTC
TNTCW 123-81
+43.5
2
@FSU
FSUW 107-73
+3.5
13
vsCIN
CINW 84-65
−8.5
18
vsWCU
WCUW 112-82
+26.5
22
vsWGA
WGAW 103-74
+3.5
29
vsLIU
LIUW 89-74
−16.5
3
vsAUB
AUBW 104-100
+30.5
6
@FLA
FLAL 77-92
−3.5
10
@SC
SCW 75-70
−18.5
over 9under 7avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ole Miss
9-7 overall · 1-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Missouri76–69
- Lvs Arkansas87–94
- L@ Oklahoma70–86
- Wvs Alcorn St79–43
- Lvs NC State62–76
4 days since their last game.
Georgia
14-2 overall · 2-1 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ South Carolina75–70
- L@ Florida77–92
- Wvs Auburn104–100
- Wvs Long Island89–74
- Wvs West Georgia103–74
4 days since their last game.