Stephen C. O'Connell Center · at Florida · Conference game
Closing line
FLA -4.5✓ FLA covered by 19.5
FLA -4.5✓ FLA covered by 19.5Closing total151.5Over by 6.5
 TENN | This season | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 11-4 | Record | 10-5 |
| 6-9 | ATS | 5-10 |
| 9-6 | O/U | 5-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TENN 73–79 FLA · ✓ FLA (73%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 28 | 39 | 67 |
| FLA | 41 | 50 | 91 |
1st half: TENN 28, FLA 41 (FLA by 13). The model had FLA by 4.0 and a total of 71.1 (actual 69).
Team stats
| TENN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-49 43% | Field goals | 31-64 48% |
| 6-15 40% | 3-pointers | 9-30 30% |
| 19-29 66% | Free throws | 20-25 80% |
| 30 6 off | Rebounds | 41 12 off |
| 8 | Assists | 14 |
| 7 | Steals | 13 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 37 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Nate Ament F | 27 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Felix Okpara F | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 21 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 19 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Carey F | 24 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Amari Evans G | 20 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Amaree Abram G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Troy Henderson G | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Ethan Burg G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Clarence Massamba, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Grant Hurst, Cade Phillips
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Haugh F | 37 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-5 |
| Alex Condon F | 32 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4-11 | 0-3 |
| Boogie Fland G | 31 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 9-13 | 3-6 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 25 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 8-12 | 0-0 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 21 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Urban Klavzar G | 28 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-9 |
| Micah Handlogten C | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Brown G | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Alex Kovatchev, Olivier Rioux, Cooper Josefsberg, CJ Ingram, AJ Brown, Alex Lloyd, Viktor Mikic
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFLA -4.5
ModelFLA -6.9
Model edgeFLA +2.4
W FLA covered
Total
Market151.5
Model151.9
Model edgeOver 0.4
W Over
Projected score
TENN 72.5 · FLA 79.4
TENN 67 · FLA 91
Win probability
FLA 73%
1st half
Spread
FLA -4.0
FLA -13.0
Total
71.1
69 points
Projected score
TENN 33.6 · FLA 37.6
TENN 28 · FLA 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -3.5
1 → FLA
CloseFLA -4.5
1 pt toward FLA
Total
Open150.5
▲ 1
Close151.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
TENN +180 · FLA -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -3.5 · closed FLA -4.5 · moved 1 toward FLAmodel FLA -7
model FLA -7
Opened 150.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 upmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| FLA | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
TENN 3–3 FLASeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · TENN 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024-25 | TENN 77 vs FLA 86 | FLA -4.5 | FLA W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | FLA 44 @ TENN 64 | TENN -2.5 | TENN W |
| Jan 7, 2024-25 | TENN 43 @ FLA 73 | FLA -3.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | FLA 66 @ TENN 85 | TENN -9.5 | TENN W |
| Feb 1, 2022-23 | TENN 54 @ FLA 67 | FLA +4.5 | FLA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee
15 games played
Straight up
11-4
73% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-6
60% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
over 9under 6avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
5-10
33% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-10
33% overs · avg −6.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARIZ | L 87-93 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 6 | vsUNF | W 104-64 | -43.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs FSU | W 78-76 | -17.5 | L −15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | vs MIA | W 82-68 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 21 | vs MRMK | W 80-45 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 27 | vs TCU | L 80-84 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs PROV | W 90-78 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUKE | L 66-67 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 9 | vs CONN | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs GW | W 80-70 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 17 | vs SFPA | W 102-61 | -44.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLG | W 90-60 | -27.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs DART | W 94-72 | -35.5 | L −13.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 3 | @ MIZ | L 74-76 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 6 | vs UGA | W 92-77 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
−15.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−0.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
+8.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+0.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−4.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
−3.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
+2.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
−13.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−9.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
+5.5
covered 5didn’t cover 10avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
+8.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−1.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
−24.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+4.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−12.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
+6.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
−6.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
+5.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−4.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
−3.5
over 5under 10avg −6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee
11-4 overall · 1-1 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas85–71
- L@ Arkansas75–86
- Wvs SC State105–54
- Wvs Gardner-Webb94–52
- Wvs Louisville83–62
4 days since their last game.
Florida
10-5 overall · 1-1 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia92–77
- L@ Missouri74–76
- Wvs Dartmouth94–72
- Wvs Colgate90–60
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves102–61
4 days since their last game.