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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

42 games · 2023 · Postseason round 16 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games42100%By halftime00%In Q337%In Q41945%In OT12%Stayed under1945%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands410%Over cashed512%Leader lost the game614%
55% went over. Of the 23 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.

All 42 games

2023 · Postseason round 16 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -5.5 56 17273347 U MICH Q1 13–34
2023 · Postseason
 TEX -3.5 61.5 14425268 Q4 WASH Q1 31–37
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Postseason
 ORE -18.5 71 9374451 U ORE Q2 6–45
2023 · Postseason
 TENN -5 37 0142135 U TENN Q2 0–35
2023 · Postseason
 LSU -9.5 60 14355966 Q4 WIS Q1
Late over Lead lost
 31–35
2023 · Postseason
 WYO -5.5 44 3162131 U TOL Q1
Lead lost
 15–16
2023 · Postseason
 UGA -23.5 47 7455966 Q3 UGA Q2 63–3
2023 · Postseason
 AUB -4.5 48 21313844 U MD Q1 13–31
2023 · Postseason
 PSU -5.5 53 13374863 Q4 MISS Q1 38–25
2023 · Postseason
 OSU -4 50.5 33317 U MIZ Q1 14–3
2023 · Postseason
 MEM -10 58 19355662 Q4 Push 26–36
2023 · Postseason
 ND -5.5 40.5 7142448 Q4 ND Q1 8–40
2023 · Postseason
 CLEM -3.5 44 10243173 Q4 UK Q1
Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 ARIZ -2.5 60 10274562 Q4 ARIZ Q4
Late over
 38–24
2023 · Postseason
 KSU -3 49 7314047 U KSU Q4
Late cover flip
 19–28
2023 · Postseason
 RUTG -2.5 41.5 7243855 Q4 RUTG Q1 31–24
2023 · Postseason
 SMU -13.5 49.5 3242437 U BC Q1 14–23
2023 · Postseason
 OKST -4 56 13305154 U OKST Q1 23–31
2023 · Postseason
 LOU -5 58 14425670 Q4 USC Q1 28–42
2023 · Postseason
 WVU -4.5 62 7273040 U WVU Q1 10–30
2023 · Postseason
 VT -13 43.5 17274461 Q3 VT Q4 41–20
2023 · Postseason
 KU -7.5 65 14385285 Q4 KU Q4 49–36
2023 · Postseason
 TXST -3.5 59.5 21455966 Q4 TXST Q3
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Postseason
 MINN -2.5 44.5 13193354 Q4 MINN Q3 24–30
2023 · Postseason
 SJSU -7.5 48 771438 U CCU Q1 24–14
2023 · Postseason
 UTAH -7 44 07721 U NU Q1 7–14
2023 · Postseason
 EMU -17.5 42.5 17416269 Q3 USA Q1 10–59
2023 · Postseason
 AFA -2.5 44 14284252 Q4 AFA Q2 21–31
2023 · Postseason
 USU -2.5 58.5 35455267 Q4 GAST Q1 45–22
2023 · Postseason
 TROY -6.5 44.5 8141727 U DUKE Q1 10–17
2023 · Postseason
 ARST -2.5 53.5 20343440 U NIU Q1 19–21
2023 · Postseason
 UCF -6 66 14343747 U GT Q2 30–17
2023 · Postseason
 SYR -3 55.5 14313845 U USF Q1 45–0
2023 · Postseason
 UTSA -7 47 7384552 Q4 UTSA Q3 35–17
2023 · Postseason
 ODU -4.5 49.5 2135497073 Q4 WKU Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 38–35
2023 · Postseason
 TTU -3.5 54.5 21384548 U TTU Q2 14–34
2023 · Postseason
 UCLA -6.5 46 13234457 Q4 UCLA Q3 35–22
2023 · Postseason
 NMSU -3 52 10203047 U FRES Q1 10–37
2023 · Postseason
 APP -6.5 41 692222 U M-OH Q1 9–13
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Postseason
 GASO -2 48.5 3204862 Q4 OHIO Q1 21–41
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 57% 24
Q2 14% 6
Q3 10% 4
Q4 12% 5
OT 2% 1
Push 5% 2
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 79% of 39 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 83% of 42 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over3100% 3
1–39100% 9
4–7475% 3
8–10333% 1
11–14475% 3
15–17475% 3
18–2130% 0
22+128% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.