Hulman Center · at Indiana St · Conference game
Closing line
ILST -6.5✓ INST covered by 11.5
ILST -6.5✓ INST covered by 11.5Closing total148.5Over by 34.5
| ILST | This season | INST |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | Record | 6-9 |
| 10-6 | ATS | 9-6 |
| 6-10 | O/U | 6-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILST 78–72 INST · ✗ ILST (72%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 42 | 47 | 89 |
| INST | 51 | 43 | 94 |
1st half: ILST 42, INST 51 (INST by 9). The model had ILST by 4.0 and a total of 70.0 (actual 93).
Team stats
| ILST | INST | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-56 55% | Field goals | 32-57 56% |
| 9-21 43% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 18-24 75% | Free throws | 22-30 73% |
| 28 7 off | Rebounds | 30 8 off |
| 10 | Assists | 26 |
| 4 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| ILST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger G | 35 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-11 | 0-4 |
| Boden Skunberg G | 27 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman G | 27 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Chase Walker F | 27 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Ty Pence G | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Landon Wolf G | 24 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Landon Moore G | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Mason Klabo G | 12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Brandon Lieb F | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jack Daugherty F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cameron Barnes F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Allen, Isaac Ericksen, Ty Blake
| INST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Scott F | 31 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Camp Wagner G | 27 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1-10 | 1-8 |
| Sterling Young G | 26 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 5-7 | 1-3 |
| Xavier Hall G | 25 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 5-8 | 2-5 |
| Derek Vorst C | 21 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bruno Alocen G | 23 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Enel St. Bernard F | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Jo Van Buggenhout G | 16 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Sivert Waerstad Nordheim G | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Martin Kaupanger, Caden Huttenlocker, Jayan Walker, Cooper Bean, Hunter Harding, Zyair Greene, Markus Harding
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILST -6.5
ModelILST -6.5
Model edge—
INST covered
Total
Market148.5
Model149.5
Model edgeOver 1.0
W Over
Projected score
ILST 78 · INST 71.5
ILST 89 · INST 94
Win probability
ILST 72%
1st half
Spread
ILST -4.0
INST -9.0
Total
70.0
93 points
Projected score
ILST 37 · INST 33
ILST 42 · INST 51
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILST -5.5
1 → ILST
CloseILST -6.5
1 pt toward ILST
Total
Open144.5
▲ 4
Close148.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
ILST -270 · INST +220
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILST -5.5 · closed ILST -6.5 · moved 1 toward ILSTmodel ILST -6.5 matches the line
model ILST -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 144.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 4 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| INST | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
ILST 5–4 INSTILST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ILST 4-4-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025-26 | INST 65 @ ILST 85 | ILST -13.5 | ILST W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | ILST 76 @ INST 85 | INST +0.5 | INST W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | INST 81 @ ILST 85 | ILST -6.5 | INST W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | ILST 80 @ INST 67 | INST -17.5 | ILST W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | ILST 64 @ INST 80 | INST -14.5 | INST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois St
16 games played
Straight up
11-5
69% wins
Against the spread
10-6
63% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ OHIO | L 68-72 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 9 | vs COR | W 76-65 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs USC | L 67-87 | +15.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ LBSU | W 82-80 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 23 | vs CCU | W 94-42 | -12.5 | W +39.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 27 | vs CLT | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs FUR | W 72-65 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs EKU | W 89-78 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 6 | vs CHST | W 95-53 | -20.5 | W +21.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 13 | vs USU | L 78-83 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 18 | @ SIU | W 75-68 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 21 | vsINST | W 85-65 | -13.5 | W +6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | @ DRKE | W 73-56 | -4.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 1 | vs EVAN | W 73-47 | -12.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 7 | @ VAL | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | vs UIC | L 59-63 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−2.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
+4.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−4.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
−6.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
+39.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+4.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
+3.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
−1.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+21.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+3.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
+8.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
+6.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
+12.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
+13.5
7
@VAL
VALL 71-77
−12.5
10
vsUIC
UICL 59-63
−14.5
covered 10didn’t cover 6avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−21.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
−23.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−1.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
+20.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
−10.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+8.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
−8.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
+12.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+3.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+12.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
−10.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
−2.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
−16.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
−24.5
7
@VAL
VALL 71-77
+9.5
10
vsUIC
UICL 59-63
−19.5
over 6under 10avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Indiana St
15 games played
Straight up
6-9
40% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg −5.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @CLT | L 76-92 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 10 | @ SIUE | W 64-55 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 14 | @ DUKE | L 62-100 | +37.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 19 | vs LT | W 60-51 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 22 | vs BALL | W 70-52 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 26 | @LT | L 73-75 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs ALCN | L 74-81 | -12.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | vs USI | W 77-55 | -11.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ MILW | W 70-68 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs BRAD | L 99-108 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | O 207 |
| Dec 21 | @ILST | L 65-85 | +13.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs BEL | W 81-80 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 1 | @ UNI | L 66-75 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 4 | @DRKE | L 72-74 | +6.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vsEVAN | L 69-72 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
−11.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
+11.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−0.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
+5.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
+10.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+0.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
−19.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
+10.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
+4.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
−3.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−6.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+8.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+1.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
+4.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−10.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
+15.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
−40.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−1.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
−36.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
−32.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+6.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
+2.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
−26.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
−21.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
+56.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 65-85
−2.5
29
vsBEL
BELW 81-80
+1.5
1
@UNI
UNIL 66-75
+5.5
4
@DRKE
DRKEL 72-74
−3.5
10
vsEVAN
EVANL 69-72
−4.5
over 6under 9avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois St
11-5 overall · 4-2 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UIC59–63
- L@ Valparaiso71–77
- Wvs Evansville73–47
- W@ Drake73–56
- Wvs Indiana St85–65
4 days since their last game.
Indiana St
6-9 overall · 1-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Evansville69–72
- L@ Drake72–74
- L@ Northern Iowa66–75
- Wvs Belmont81–80
- L@ Illinois St65–85
4 days since their last game.