Matthew Knight Arena · at Oregon · Conference game
Closing line
IOWA -9.5✓ IOWA covered by 8.5
IOWA -9.5✓ IOWA covered by 8.5Closing total133.5Over by 16.5
| IOWA | This season | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| 15-5 | Record | 8-13 |
| 13-7 | ATS | 6-15 |
| 11-9 | O/U | 9-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: IOWA 73–68 ORE · ✓ IOWA (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 35 | 49 | 84 |
| ORE | 26 | 40 | 66 |
1st half: IOWA 35, ORE 26 (IOWA by 9). The model had IOWA by 3.4 and a total of 66.2 (actual 61).
Team stats
| IOWA | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-56 59% | Field goals | 23-56 41% |
| 10-22 45% | 3-pointers | 6-25 24% |
| 8-10 80% | Free throws | 14-16 88% |
| 26 7 off | Rebounds | 31 13 off |
| 18 | Assists | 11 |
| 8 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz G | 38 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 12-15 | 4-6 |
| Cooper Koch F | 30 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Kael Combs G | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Tavion Banks G | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 28 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 6-9 | 1-3 |
| Isaia Howard G | 27 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Brendan Hausen G | 16 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4-7 | 3-6 |
| Tate Sage G | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jacob Koch G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joey Matteoni F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Trevin Jirak C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Peyton McCollum, Trey Thompson
| ORE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwame Evans Jr. F | 37 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 6-14 | 1-7 |
| Takai Simpkins G | 31 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-3 |
| Sean Stewart F | 27 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Dez Lindsay F | 27 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Drew Carter G | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamari Phillips G | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-6 |
| Oleksandr Kobzystyi F | 17 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Wei Lin G | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Efe Vatan F | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Luke Johnson F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Devon Pryor, Miles Stewart, Jackson Shelstad, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Ege Demir, Nate Bittle
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketIOWA -9.5
ModelIOWA -5.5
Model edgeORE +4.0
L IOWA covered
Total
Market133.5
Model141.3
Model edgeOver 7.8
W Over
Projected score
IOWA 73.4 · ORE 67.9
IOWA 84 · ORE 66
Win probability
IOWA 69%
1st half
Spread
IOWA -3.4
IOWA -9.0
Total
66.2
61 points
Projected score
IOWA 34.8 · ORE 31.4
IOWA 35 · ORE 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIOWA -9.5
no move
CloseIOWA -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open134.5
▼ 1
Close133.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
IOWA -575 · ORE +425
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IOWA -9.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -5.5
model IOWA -5.5
Opened 134.5 · closed 133.5 · moved 1 downmodel 141.5
model 141.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| ORE | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
IOWA 0–1 OREORE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · IOWA 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | ORE 80 @ IOWA 78 | IOWA +2.5 | IOWA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa
20 games played
Straight up
15-5
75% wins
Against the spread
13-7
65% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-9
55% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs RMU | W 101-69 | -22.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIU | W 77-58 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 14 | vs XAV | W 81-62 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs SEMO | W 99-70 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 20 | vs CHST | W 93-54 | -31.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | vs MISS | W 74-69 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs GCU | W 59-46 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 105 |
| Dec 2 | @ MSU | L 52-71 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs MD | W 83-64 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 11 | @ ISU | L 62-66 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs WMU | W 91-51 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUCK | W 94-39 | -25.5 | W +29.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs UML | W 90-62 | -33.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 3 | vs UCLA | W 74-61 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @ MINN | L 67-70 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 11 | vs ILL | L 69-75 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ PUR | L 72-79 | +10.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ IU | W 74-57 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 20 | vs RUTG | W 68-62 | -17.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 28 | vs USC | W 73-72 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
+3.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+5.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+7.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+0.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
+4.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−13.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+8.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
+7.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+14.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
+29.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
−5.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
+6.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
−7.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
−4.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+3.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
+20.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−11.5
28
vsUSC
USCW 73-72
−8.5
covered 13didn’t cover 7avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
−0.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+21.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+4.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+2.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
−38.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−10.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+9.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
−13.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
−0.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
+6.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
−5.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
+6.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
+1.5
14
@PUR
PURL 72-79
+5.5
17
@IU
IUW 74-57
−15.5
20
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-62
−10.5
28
vsUSC
USCW 73-72
+3.5
over 11under 9avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Oregon
21 games played
Straight up
8-13
38% wins
Against the spread
6-15
29% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-12
43% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs HAW | W 60-59 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 7 | vs RICE | W 67-63 | -15.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs SDST | W 83-69 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 17 | vs ORST | W 87-75 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 24 | vs AUB | L 73-84 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs SDSU | L 80-97 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 141.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 27 | vs CREI | L 66-76 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 2 | vsUSC | L 77-82 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @UCLA | L 63-74 | +8.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 13 | vs UCD | W 104-62 | -13.5 | W +28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vs PORT | W 94-69 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs GONZ | L 82-91 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 155.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 28 | vs OMA | W 80-57 | -21.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 2 | @MD | W 64-54 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 118 |
| Jan 5 | @RUTG | L 85-88 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 8 | vs OSU | L 62-72 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 13 | @ NEB | L 55-90 | +10.5 | L −24.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs MICH | L 71-81 | +18.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vsMSU | L 52-68 | +10.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 25 | @ WASH | L 57-72 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 28 | vsUCLA | L 57-73 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−10.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−11.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
−2.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
−1.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
−6.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
−19.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−7.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
−2.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−2.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+28.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+5.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+3.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
+1.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
+8.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
−7.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−11.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−24.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
+8.5
20
vsMSU
MSUL 52-68
−5.5
25
@WASH
WASHL 57-72
−7.5
28
vsUCLA
UCLAL 57-73
−11.5
covered 6didn’t cover 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−25.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−15.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
+6.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
+20.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
+1.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
+35.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−8.5
2
vsUSC
USCL 77-82
+4.5
6
@UCLA
UCLAL 63-74
−9.5
13
vsUCD
UCDW 104-62
+19.5
17
vsPORT
PORTW 94-69
+8.5
21
vsGONZ
GONZL 82-91
+17.5
28
vsOMA
OMAW 80-57
−14.5
2
@MD
MDW 64-54
−28.5
5
@RUTG
RUTGL 85-88
+33.5
8
vsOSU
OSUL 62-72
−18.5
13
@NEB
NEBL 55-90
−1.5
17
vsMICH
MICHL 71-81
−5.5
20
vsMSU
MSUL 52-68
−19.5
25
@WASH
WASHL 57-72
−14.5
28
vsUCLA
UCLAL 57-73
−6.5
over 9under 12avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa
15-5 overall · 5-4 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs USC73–72
- Wvs Rutgers68–62
- W@ Indiana74–57
- L@ Purdue72–79
- Lvs Illinois69–75
4 days since their last game.
Oregon
8-13 overall · 1-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UCLA57–73
- L@ Washington57–72
- Lvs Michigan St52–68
- Lvs Michigan71–81
- L@ Nebraska55–90
4 days since their last game.