Stroh Center · at Bowling Green · Conference game
Closing line
BGSU -3.5✓ BGSU covered by 6.5
BGSU -3.5✓ BGSU covered by 6.5Closing total150.5Under by 0.5
 TOL | This season | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| 11-12 | Record | 12-10 |
| 13-10 | ATS | 10-12 |
| 10-13 | O/U | 7-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 75–78 BGSU · ✓ BGSU (61%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 35 | 35 | 70 |
| BGSU | 37 | 43 | 80 |
1st half: TOL 35, BGSU 37 (BGSU by 2). The model had BGSU by 1.9 and a total of 71.4 (actual 72).
Team stats
| TOL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-64 39% | Field goals | 28-59 47% |
| 10-24 42% | 3-pointers | 11-21 52% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 13-19 68% |
| 40 14 off | Rebounds | 36 9 off |
| 14 | Assists | 13 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 39 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 8-14 | 2-3 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 36 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 5-16 | 3-10 |
| Sean Craig F | 29 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-4 |
| Austin Parks C | 25 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Mynor Strong G | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Will James Jr. G | 22 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2-9 | 0-4 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: London Praytor, Phoenix Glassnor, Toby Nwokolo, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
| BGSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javontae Campbell G | 39 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 8-13 | 1-2 |
| Sam Towns F | 38 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 5-8 | 4-6 |
| Justin Thomas G | 29 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Josiah Shackelford G | 24 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 5-16 | 3-5 |
| Troy Glover II F | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mayar Wol F | 23 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Javon Ruffin G | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Aiden Goins F | 10 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Camden Karel, Christian Dedivanaj, Makhi Leach, Jason Kimbrough, Alijah Adem, Preston Squire, Mohamed Maxamud, Jaxon Pardon, Greg Spurgin
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBGSU -3.5
ModelBGSU -3.3
Model edgeTOL +0.2
L BGSU covered
Total
Market150.5
Model152.7
Model edgeOver 2.2
L Under
Projected score
TOL 74.7 · BGSU 78
TOL 70 · BGSU 80
Win probability
BGSU 61%
1st half
Spread
BGSU -1.9
BGSU -2.0
Total
71.4
72 points
Projected score
TOL 34.8 · BGSU 36.6
TOL 35 · BGSU 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBGSU -4.5
1 → TOL
CloseBGSU -3.5
1 pt toward TOL
Total
Open150.5
no move
Close150.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TOL +150 · BGSU -180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BGSU -4.5 · closed BGSU -3.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel BGSU -3.5 matches the line
model BGSU -3.5 = line ✓
Opened 150.5 · unchangedmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| BGSU | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TOL 7–2 BGSUTOL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · TOL 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025-26 | BGSU 72 @ TOL 73 | TOL +1.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 21, 2024-25 | BGSU 69 @ TOL 68 | TOL -7.5 | BGSU W |
| Jan 24, 2024-25 | TOL 84 @ BGSU 71 | BGSU +2.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 23, 2023-24 | TOL 68 @ BGSU 76 | BGSU +4.5 | BGSU W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | BGSU 72 @ TOL 88 | TOL -6.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
23 games played
Straight up
11-12
48% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-13
43% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vs M-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs OHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @ MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vsBGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @ AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vs BALL | W 73-55 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsKENT | L 72-75 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 161.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ JMU | L 71-73 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 11 | @WMU | W 90-79 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
+9.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−1.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−3.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+4.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
−18.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−14.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−9.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+14.5
over 10under 13avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bowling Green
22 games played
Straight up
12-10
55% wins
Against the spread
10-12
45% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-15
32% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TXST | W 83-48 | -5.5 | W +29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 9 | vs LEM | W 83-60 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | @ DAV | L 87-91 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 19 | vs W&M | L 74-82 | -8.5 | L −16.5 | 167.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs BUCK | W 71-66 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 26 | vs VMI | W 81-48 | -11.5 | W +21.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 1 | @ KSU | W 82-66 | +12.5 | W +28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVU | L 71-82 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 16 | vs CHST | W 76-55 | -21.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 20 | @OHIO | W 68-58 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | vsM-OH | L 83-93 | -6.5 | L −16.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | @MASS | W 101-100 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 6 | @KENT | L 93-96 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | O 189 |
| Jan 9 | vsAKR | L 67-77 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs EMU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 20 | @WMU | W 72-54 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | @TOL | L 72-73 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | vs BUF | L 78-89 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | @CMU | L 59-62 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 3 | vsBALL | W 77-52 | -11.5 | W +13.5 | 137.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 7 | @ ARST | L 54-91 | +2.5 | L −34.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 11 | @NIU | W 68-52 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-48
+29.5
9
vsLEM
LEMW 83-60
+11.5
15
@DAV
DAVL 87-91
+0.5
19
vsW&M
W&ML 74-82
−16.5
24
vsBUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−5.5
26
vsVMI
VMIW 81-48
+21.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 82-66
+28.5
6
vsUVU
UVUL 71-82
−9.5
16
vsCHST
CHSTW 76-55
−0.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOW 68-58
+8.5
30
vsM-OH
M-OHL 83-93
−16.5
3
@MASS
MASSW 101-100
−0.5
6
@KENT
KENTL 93-96
+0.5
9
vsAKR
AKRL 67-77
−5.5
17
vsEMU
EMUW 85-79
−5.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 72-54
+11.5
24
@TOL
TOLL 72-73
−2.5
27
vsBUF
BUFL 78-89
−18.5
31
@CMU
CMUL 59-62
−11.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 77-52
+13.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 54-91
−34.5
11
@NIU
NIUW 68-52
+8.5
covered 10didn’t cover 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-48
−15.5
9
vsLEM
LEMW 83-60
−11.5
15
@DAV
DAVL 87-91
+33.5
19
vsW&M
W&ML 74-82
−11.5
24
vsBUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−7.5
26
vsVMI
VMIW 81-48
−19.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 82-66
−11.5
6
vsUVU
UVUL 71-82
+8.5
16
vsCHST
CHSTW 76-55
−17.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOW 68-58
−27.5
30
vsM-OH
M-OHL 83-93
+25.5
3
@MASS
MASSW 101-100
+48.5
6
@KENT
KENTL 93-96
+33.5
9
vsAKR
AKRL 67-77
−19.5
17
vsEMU
EMUW 85-79
+22.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 72-54
−26.5
24
@TOL
TOLL 72-73
−10.5
27
vsBUF
BUFL 78-89
+16.5
31
@CMU
CMUL 59-62
−28.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 77-52
−8.5
7
@ARST
ARSTL 54-91
−9.5
11
@NIU
NIUW 68-52
−24.5
over 7under 15avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
11-12 overall · 7-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ W Michigan90–79
- L@ James Madison71–73
- Lvs Kent State72–75
- Wvs Ball State73–55
- L@ Akron81–91
3 days since their last game.
Bowling Green
12-10 overall · 6-6 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ N Illinois68–52
- L@ Arkansas St54–91
- Wvs Ball State77–52
- L@ C Michigan59–62
- Lvs Buffalo78–89
3 days since their last game.