Neville Arena · at Auburn · Conference game
Closing line
AUB -6.5✓ TEX covered by 0.5
AUB -6.5✓ TEX covered by 0.5Closing total154.5Over by 15.5
 TEX | This season | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| 11-8 | Record | 13-7 |
| 11-8 | ATS | 12-8 |
| 11-8 | O/U | 12-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TEX 79–85 AUB · ✓ AUB (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 42 | 40 | 82 |
| AUB | 34 | 54 | 88 |
1st half: TEX 42, AUB 34 (TEX by 8). The model had AUB by 3.3 and a total of 76.9 (actual 76).
Team stats
| TEX | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-50 52% | Field goals | 24-47 51% |
| 12-26 46% | 3-pointers | 11-21 52% |
| 18-23 78% | Free throws | 29-39 74% |
| 26 7 off | Rebounds | 23 6 off |
| 10 | Assists | 8 |
| 3 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 26 | Fouls | 20 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| TEX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Heide F | 38 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Dailyn Swain G | 37 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 10-16 | 4-7 |
| Jordan Pope G | 35 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Matas Vokietaitis C | 30 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Tramon Mark G | 22 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-13 | 0-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chendall Weaver G | 20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Lassina Traore F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Simeon Wilcher G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Lewis Obiorah, Declan Duru Jr., Cole Bott, Nic Codie, Anthon McDermott, Brandon Taylor, John Clark
| AUB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahaad Pettiford G | 36 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2-10 | 1-4 |
| Keyshawn Hall F | 36 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 7-13 | 3-6 |
| Kevin Overton G | 33 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 6-9 | 5-7 |
| Sebastian Williams-Adams F | 32 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| KeShawn Murphy F | 26 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elyjah Freeman G | 19 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Filip Jovic C | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Blake Muschalek G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: CJ Williams, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Kaden Magwood, Abdul Bashir, Drake Cardwell, Joah Shay, Simon Walker, Reed Trapp
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAUB -6.5
ModelAUB -5.8
Model edgeTEX +0.7
W TEX covered
Total
Market154.5
Model164.3
Model edgeOver 9.8
W Over
Projected score
TEX 79.3 · AUB 85.1
TEX 82 · AUB 88
Win probability
AUB 69%
1st half
Spread
AUB -3.3
TEX -8.0
Total
76.9
76 points
Projected score
TEX 36.8 · AUB 40.1
TEX 42 · AUB 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -5.5
1 → AUB
CloseAUB -6.5
1 pt toward AUB
Total
Open160.5
▼ 6
Close154.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
TEX +240 · AUB -298
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -5.5 · closed AUB -6.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -6
model AUB -6
Opened 160.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 6 downmodel 164.5
model 164.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| AUB | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TEX 0–1 AUBAUB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TEX 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024-25 | AUB 87 @ TEX 82 | TEX +10.5 | TEX W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas
19 games played
Straight up
11-8
58% wins
Against the spread
11-8
58% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-8
58% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs DUKE | L 60-75 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs LAF | W 97-60 | -25.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs FDU | W 93-58 | -31.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs KC | W 71-55 | -31.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | vs RID | W 99-65 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs ASU | L 86-87 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 26 | vs NCSU | W 102-97 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | vs UVA | L 69-88 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 8 | vs SOU | W 95-69 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 12 | @ CONN | L 63-71 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs LEM | W 95-53 | -29.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 22 | vs UMES | W 94-71 | -33.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vs MSST | L 98-101 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 6 | @ TENN | L 71-85 | +12.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ ALA | W 92-88 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 14 | vs VAN | W 80-64 | +3.5 | W +19.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs TA&M | L 70-74 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 166.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 21 | @ UK | L 80-85 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs UGA | W 87-67 | -3.5 | W +16.5 | 168.5 | U 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−4.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+11.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
+3.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−15.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+3.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
−7.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+6.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
−22.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+3.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
+3.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
+12.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
−10.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
−12.5
6
@TENN
TENNL 71-85
−1.5
10
@ALA
ALAW 92-88
+15.5
14
vsVAN
VANW 80-64
+19.5
17
vsTA&M
TA&ML 70-74
−8.5
21
@UK
UKL 80-85
+2.5
24
vsUGA
UGAW 87-67
+16.5
covered 11didn’t cover 8avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−18.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+3.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
−7.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−33.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+20.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
+19.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+37.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
+2.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+5.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
−11.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
−4.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
+26.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
+41.5
6
@TENN
TENNL 71-85
+2.5
10
@ALA
ALAW 92-88
+2.5
14
vsVAN
VANW 80-64
−19.5
17
vsTA&M
TA&ML 70-74
−22.5
21
@UK
UKL 80-85
+12.5
24
vsUGA
UGAW 87-67
−14.5
over 11under 8avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Auburn
20 games played
Straight up
13-7
65% wins
Against the spread
12-8
60% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-8
60% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BCU | W 95-90 | -24.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 6 | vs MRMK | W 95-57 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | vs WOF | W 93-62 | -27.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 16 | vs HOU | L 72-73 | +7.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 19 | vs JKST | W 112-66 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORE | W 84-73 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs MICH | L 72-102 | +4.5 | L −25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs SJU | W 85-74 | +4.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 3 | vsNCSU | W 83-73 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARIZ | L 68-97 | +11.5 | L −17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTC | W 92-78 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs PUR | L 60-88 | +7.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs QUC | W 106-65 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 171 |
| Jan 3 | @UGA | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 6 | vsTA&M | L 88-90 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 168.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARK | W 95-73 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Jan 14 | @ MIZ | L 74-84 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | vs SC | W 71-67 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ MISS | W 78-66 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @ FLA | W 76-67 | +11.5 | W +20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
−19.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+14.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+3.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+6.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+15.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+6.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
−25.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
+15.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
+4.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
−17.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
−5.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−20.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
+15.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+2.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
−8.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
+19.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
−11.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−9.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
+8.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
+20.5
covered 12didn’t cover 8avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBCU
BCUW 95-90
+31.5
6
vsMRMK
MRMKW 95-57
+3.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 93-62
+2.5
16
vsHOU
HOUL 72-73
+4.5
19
vsJKST
JKSTW 112-66
+21.5
24
vsORE
OREW 84-73
+1.5
25
vsMICH
MICHL 72-102
+10.5
26
vsSJU
SJUW 85-74
−7.5
3
vsNCSU
NCSUW 83-73
−6.5
6
@ARIZ
ARIZL 68-97
+2.5
13
vsUTC
UTCW 92-78
+19.5
20
vsPUR
PURL 60-88
−4.5
29
vsQUC
QUCW 106-65
−0.5
3
@UGA
UGAL 100-104
+30.5
6
vsTA&M
TA&ML 88-90
+9.5
10
vsARK
ARKW 95-73
−1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZL 74-84
+4.5
17
vsSC
SCW 71-67
−14.5
20
@MISS
MISSW 78-66
−7.5
24
@FLA
FLAW 76-67
−16.5
over 12under 8avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas
11-8 overall · 3-4 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia87–67
- L@ Kentucky80–85
- Lvs Texas A&M70–74
- Wvs Vanderbilt80–64
- W@ Alabama92–88
4 days since their last game.
Auburn
13-7 overall · 4-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Florida76–67
- W@ Ole Miss78–66
- Wvs South Carolina71–67
- L@ Missouri74–84
- Wvs Arkansas95–73
4 days since their last game.