Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game
Closing line
MSST -1.5✓ MSST covered by 17.5
MSST -1.5✓ MSST covered by 17.5Closing total158.5Under by 33.5
 OU | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3 | Record | 9-5 |
| 5-9 | ATS | 5-9 |
| 6-8 | O/U | 8-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OU 82–82 MSST · ✓ MSST (51%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 27 | 26 | 53 |
| MSST | 27 | 45 | 72 |
1st half: OU 27, MSST 27 (tied). The model had MSST by 0.1 and a total of 76.7 (actual 54).
Team stats
| OU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-55 31% | Field goals | 25-59 42% |
| 3-20 15% | 3-pointers | 2-15 13% |
| 16-25 64% | Free throws | 20-28 71% |
| 35 13 off | Rebounds | 46 17 off |
| 4 | Assists | 7 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 6 | Blocks | 6 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| OU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xzayvier Brown G | 34 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 4-16 | 0-3 |
| Tae Davis F | 32 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 5-13 | 0-3 |
| Nijel Pack G | 31 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-5 |
| Derrion Reid F | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Mohamed Wague F | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jadon Jones G | 28 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Kirill Elatontsev C | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Kuol Atak F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kai Rogers F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dayton Forsythe G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jeff Nwankwo, Alec Blair, Reid Lovelace, Andreas Holst, Jake Hansen, Finley Keeffe
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 37 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 11-22 | 1-7 |
| Achor Achor F | 32 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 32 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Epps G | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-4 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 16 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 26 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 25 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| King Grace G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Brandon Walker F | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dellquan Warren, Amier Ali, Gai Chol, Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett, Sergej Macura
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSST -1.5
ModelMSST -0.4
Model edgeOU +1.1
L MSST covered
Total
Market158.5
Model163.8
Model edgeOver 5.3
L Under
Projected score
OU 81.7 · MSST 82.1
OU 53 · MSST 72
Win probability
MSST 51%
1st half
Spread
MSST -0.1
tied
Total
76.7
54 points
Projected score
OU 38.3 · MSST 38.4
OU 27 · MSST 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -1.5
no move
CloseMSST -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open159.5
▼ 1
Close158.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
OU -105 · MSST -115
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -1.5 · unchangedmodel MSST -0.5
model MSST -0.5
Opened 159.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 downmodel 164
model 164
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| MSST | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
OU 1–0 MSSTOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · OU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | MSST 87 @ OU 93 | OU +3.5 | OU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Oklahoma
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-8
43% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SFPA | W 102-66 | -31.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | @ GONZ | L 68-83 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs UAPB | W 95-69 | -36.5 | L −10.5 | 168.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 15 | vs NEB | L 99-105 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 163.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 20 | vs ORU | W 95-71 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 166 |
| Nov 23 | vs ALCN | W 72-53 | -31.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 28 | vs MARQ | W 75-74 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 162.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | @ WAKE | W 86-68 | +4.5 | W +22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs ASU | L 70-86 | -5.5 | L −21.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 13 | vs OKST | W 85-76 | -2.5 | W +6.5 | 169.5 | U 161 |
| Dec 16 | vs KC | W 89-67 | -30.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 22 | vs STET | W 107-54 | -31.5 | W +21.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 29 | vs MVSU | W 93-69 | -44.5 | L −20.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 3 | vs MISS | W 86-70 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-66
+4.5
8
@GONZ
GONZL 68-83
−4.5
11
vsUAPB
UAPBW 95-69
−10.5
15
vsNEB
NEBL 99-105
−4.5
20
vsORU
ORUW 95-71
−0.5
23
vsALCN
ALCNW 72-53
−12.5
28
vsMARQ
MARQW 75-74
−0.5
2
@WAKE
WAKEW 86-68
+22.5
6
vsASU
ASUL 70-86
−21.5
13
vsOKST
OKSTW 85-76
+6.5
16
vsKC
KCW 89-67
−8.5
22
vsSTET
STETW 107-54
+21.5
29
vsMVSU
MVSUW 93-69
−20.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 86-70
+9.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-66
+18.5
8
@GONZ
GONZL 68-83
−15.5
11
vsUAPB
UAPBW 95-69
−4.5
15
vsNEB
NEBL 99-105
+40.5
20
vsORU
ORUW 95-71
−0.5
23
vsALCN
ALCNW 72-53
−35.5
28
vsMARQ
MARQW 75-74
−13.5
2
@WAKE
WAKEW 86-68
−5.5
6
vsASU
ASUL 70-86
−1.5
13
vsOKST
OKSTW 85-76
−8.5
16
vsKC
KCW 89-67
+2.5
22
vsSTET
STETW 107-54
+12.5
29
vsMVSU
MVSUW 93-69
+8.5
3
vsMISS
MISSW 86-70
+9.5
over 6under 8avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
14 games played
Straight up
9-5
64% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
over 8under 6avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Oklahoma
11-3 overall · 1-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ole Miss86–70
- Wvs Miss Valley St93–69
- Wvs Stetson107–54
- Wvs Kansas City89–67
- Wvs Oklahoma St85–76
4 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
9-5 overall · 1-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Texas101–98
- Wvs Alabama St94–56
- Wvs Memphis71–66
- Wvs Long Island87–83
- Wvs Utah82–74
4 days since their last game.