UD Arena · at Dayton · Conference game
Closing line
DAY -2.5✓ DAY covered by 4.5
DAY -2.5✓ DAY covered by 4.5Closing total154.5Under by 3.5
 GW | This season | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| 10-4 | Record | 11-4 |
| 8-6 | ATS | 6-9 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 6-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GW 77–79 DAY · ✓ DAY (58%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW | 35 | 37 | 72 |
| DAY | 30 | 49 | 79 |
1st half: GW 35, DAY 30 (GW by 5). The model had DAY by 1.2 and a total of 72.7 (actual 65).
Team stats
| GW | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-52 48% | Field goals | 23-55 42% |
| 10-28 36% | 3-pointers | 6-20 30% |
| 12-20 60% | Free throws | 27-30 90% |
| 35 14 off | Rebounds | 28 11 off |
| 9 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 14 |
| 3 | Blocks | 0 |
| 22 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| GW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Castro F | 30 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Christian Jones G | 26 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Trey Autry G | 25 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1-9 | 1-8 |
| Bubu Benjamin G | 19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jean Aranguren G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tre Dinkins G | 33 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 8-12 | 5-8 |
| Tyrone Marshall Jr. F | 27 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Garrett Johnson F | 23 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| Luke Hunger F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Rougier-Roane, Mohamed Binzagr, Trey Moss, Amir Arrington, Ty Bevins, Vincent Chaudhri
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 38 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 4-20 | 3-9 |
| Keonte Jones G | 34 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 5-6 | 1-1 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 33 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Jordan Derkack G | 27 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Jacob Conner F | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaiun Simon F | 30 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bryce Heard G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Sean Pouedet G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Malcolm Thomas, Adam Njie, Amal L'Etang, Damon Friery, Jaron McKie, Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDAY -2.5
ModelDAY -2.3
Model edgeGW +0.2
L DAY covered
Total
Market154.5
Model155.2
Model edgeOver 0.7
L Under
Projected score
GW 76.5 · DAY 78.7
GW 72 · DAY 79
Win probability
DAY 58%
1st half
Spread
DAY -1.2
GW -5.0
Total
72.7
65 points
Projected score
GW 35.7 · DAY 37
GW 35 · DAY 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAY -3.5
1 → GW
CloseDAY -2.5
1 pt toward GW
Total
Open154.5
no move
Close154.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
GW +120 · DAY -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAY -3.5 · closed DAY -2.5 · moved 1 toward GWmodel DAY -2.5 matches the line
model DAY -2.5 = line ✓
Opened 154.5 · unchangedmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| DAY | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
GW 2–3 DAYDAY leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · GW 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | DAY 62 @ GW 82 | GW +9.5 | GW W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | GW 61 @ DAY 83 | DAY -12.5 | DAY W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | DAY 69 @ GW 76 | GW +8.5 | GW W |
| Feb 12, 2021-22 | GW 54 @ DAY 80 | DAY -15.5 | DAY W |
| Jan 8, 2021-22 | DAY 83 @ GW 58 | GW +8 | DAY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
G Washington
14 games played
Straight up
10-4
71% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ME | W 67-47 | -20.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 114 |
| Nov 8 | vs USF | W 99-95 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs AMER | W 107-67 | -17.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs ODU | W 96-73 | -15.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 19 | vs UMBC | W 89-52 | -22.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 23 | vs MCN | L 86-92 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs MTSU | W 92-79 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MUR | L 95-96 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 167.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 2 | @ ARMY | W 84-70 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs W&M | W 99-86 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 174.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 10 | vs DEL | L 58-70 | -21.5 | L −33.5 | 152.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs FLA | L 70-80 | +14.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 31 | @ RICH | W 99-85 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 162.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | vs LAS | W 77-55 | -16.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsME
MEW 67-47
−0.5
8
vsUSF
USFW 99-95
+5.5
12
vsAMER
AMERW 107-67
+22.5
15
vsODU
ODUW 96-73
+7.5
19
vsUMBC
UMBCW 89-52
+14.5
23
vsMCN
MCNL 86-92
−11.5
24
vsMTSU
MTSUW 92-79
+3.5
25
vsMUR
MURL 95-96
−8.5
2
@ARMY
ARMYW 84-70
−5.5
6
vsW&M
W&MW 99-86
−0.5
10
vsDEL
DELL 58-70
−33.5
13
vsFLA
FLAL 70-80
+4.5
31
@RICH
RICHW 99-85
+11.5
3
vsLAS
LASW 77-55
+5.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsME
MEW 67-47
−29.5
8
vsUSF
USFW 99-95
+34.5
12
vsAMER
AMERW 107-67
+22.5
15
vsODU
ODUW 96-73
+13.5
19
vsUMBC
UMBCW 89-52
−19.5
23
vsMCN
MCNL 86-92
+20.5
24
vsMTSU
MTSUW 92-79
+12.5
25
vsMUR
MURL 95-96
+23.5
2
@ARMY
ARMYW 84-70
−2.5
6
vsW&M
W&MW 99-86
+10.5
10
vsDEL
DELL 58-70
−24.5
13
vsFLA
FLAL 70-80
−12.5
31
@RICH
RICHW 99-85
+21.5
3
vsLAS
LASW 77-55
−18.5
over 8under 6avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Dayton
15 games played
Straight up
11-4
73% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vsUMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | vs FSU | W 97-69 | -6.5 | W +21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 20 | vs LIB | L 61-64 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vs FOR | W 63-56 | -16.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 3 | @ LUC | W 70-68 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+21.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−12.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−9.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−5.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+3.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−17.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−20.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−2.5
over 6under 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
G Washington
10-4 overall · 2-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs La Salle77–55
- W@ Richmond99–85
- Lvs Florida70–80
- Lvs Delaware58–70
- Wvs William & Mary99–86
3 days since their last game.
Dayton
11-4 overall · 2-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Loyola Chicago70–68
- Wvs Fordham63–56
- Lvs Liberty61–64
- Wvs Florida St97–69
- Wvs North Florida84–61
3 days since their last game.