Schollmaier Arena · at TCU · Conference game
Closing line
HOU -8.5✓ HOU covered by 0.5
HOU -8.5✓ HOU covered by 0.5Closing total139.5Over by 9.5
| HOU | This season | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| 17-2 | Record | 13-7 |
| 10-9 | ATS | 11-9 |
| 9-10 | O/U | 9-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 73–65 TCU · ✓ HOU (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 43 | 36 | 79 |
| TCU | 30 | 40 | 70 |
1st half: HOU 43, TCU 30 (HOU by 13). The model had HOU by 5.0 and a total of 64.9 (actual 73).
Team stats
| HOU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-54 44% | Field goals | 25-53 47% |
| 9-23 39% | 3-pointers | 4-15 27% |
| 22-24 92% | Free throws | 16-25 64% |
| 31 6 off | Rebounds | 30 7 off |
| 12 | Assists | 15 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 22 | Fouls | 22 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Uzan G | 39 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 35 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 8-16 | 2-3 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 34 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Emanuel Sharp G | 31 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 8-16 | 2-7 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 22 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Isiah Harwell G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kalifa Sakho F | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Chase McCarty F | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Mercy Miller, Cedric Lath, Bryce Jackson, Kordel Jefferson, Jacob McFarland
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Pierre G | 34 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1-9 | 1-6 |
| Brock Harding G | 34 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| David Punch F | 29 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 7-11 | 1-1 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 28 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7-10 | 0-0 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 25 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Robinson G | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Tanner Toolson G | 17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Jace Posey G | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Vianney Salatchoum C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trey Stuart, RJ Jones, Malick Diallo, Ashton Simmons, Adam Stewart, Drew McElroy, Kayden Edwards
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -8.5
ModelHOU -8.1
Model edgeTCU +0.4
L HOU covered
Total
Market139.5
Model138.5
Model edgeUnder 1.0
L Over
Projected score
HOU 73.3 · TCU 65.2
HOU 79 · TCU 70
Win probability
HOU 76%
1st half
Spread
HOU -5.0
HOU -13.0
Total
64.9
73 points
Projected score
HOU 34.9 · TCU 30
HOU 43 · TCU 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -5.5
3 → HOU
CloseHOU -8.5
3 pts toward HOU
Total
Open135.5
▲ 4
Close139.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
HOU -440 · TCU +340
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -5.5 · closed HOU -8.5 · moved 3 toward HOUmodel HOU -8
model HOU -8
Opened 135.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 4 upmodel 138.5
model 138.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| TCU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
HOU 2–1 TCUHOU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · HOU 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2024-25 | TCU 46 @ HOU 65 | HOU -18.5 | HOU W |
| Mar 14, 2023-24 | TCU 45 vs HOU 60 | HOU -11.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | HOU 67 @ TCU 68 | TCU +3.5 | TCU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Houston
19 games played
Straight up
17-2
89% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs FSU | W 82-67 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs JKST | W 80-38 | -40.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 13 | vs NOLA | W 99-57 | -32.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARK | W 94-85 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs MTSU | W 69-60 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 3 | @ CIN | W 67-60 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 6 | vs TTU | W 69-65 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 10 | @ BAY | W 77-55 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | vs WVU | W 77-48 | -13.5 | W +15.5 | 127.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 18 | vs ASU | W 103-73 | -18.5 | W +11.5 | 142.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 24 | @TTU | L 86-90 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 176 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+2.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
+1.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+9.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+3.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−16.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
+2.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−3.5
10
@BAY
BAYW 77-55
+19.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 77-48
+15.5
18
vsASU
ASUW 103-73
+11.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 86-90
−5.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+0.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
−19.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+17.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+32.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−9.5
3
@CIN
CINW 67-60
−8.5
6
vsTTU
TTUW 69-65
−8.5
10
@BAY
BAYW 77-55
−10.5
13
vsWVU
WVUW 77-48
−2.5
18
vsASU
ASUW 103-73
+33.5
24
@TTU
TTUL 86-90
+34.5
over 9under 10avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
TCU
20 games played
Straight up
13-7
65% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-11
45% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsNOLA | L 74-78 | -21.5 | L −25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 6 | vs SFPA | W 104-63 | -27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 10 | vs LAM | W 78-65 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 14 | vs MICH | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs KC | W 81-45 | -23.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 27 | vs FLA | W 84-80 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs WIS | W 74-63 | +5.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 5 | vsND | L 85-87 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | @ UNT | W 65-55 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 15 | vs UIW | W 69-65 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 18 | vs ORU | W 72-53 | -23.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 21 | vs FAMU | W 80-56 | -29.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 29 | vsJKST | W 115-64 | -30.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vsBAY | W 69-63 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 6 | @ KU | L 100-104 | +6.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | O 204 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARIZ | L 73-86 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 14 | @ BYU | L 70-76 | +13.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 17 | @ UTAH | L 79-82 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 20 | vs OKST | W 68-65 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 24 | @BAY | W 97-90 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | O 187 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+15.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
+16.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
−8.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
+0.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−15.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−4.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−5.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+20.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
+3.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+2.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
−5.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
+7.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
−7.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−5.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 97-90
+11.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+8.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
−20.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
+30.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
−15.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−9.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−22.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−6.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+35.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
−22.5
6
@KU
KUL 100-104
+60.5
10
vsARIZ
ARIZL 73-86
+1.5
14
@BYU
BYUL 70-76
−16.5
17
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-82
+6.5
20
vsOKST
OKSTW 68-65
−28.5
24
@BAY
BAYW 97-90
+39.5
over 9under 11avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Houston
17-2 overall · 5-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas Tech86–90
- Wvs Arizona St103–73
- Wvs West Virginia77–48
- W@ Baylor77–55
- Wvs Texas Tech69–65
4 days since their last game.
TCU
13-7 overall · 3-4 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Baylor97–90
- Wvs Oklahoma St68–65
- L@ Utah79–82
- L@ BYU70–76
- Lvs Arizona73–86
4 days since their last game.