Tucker Center · at Florida St · Conference game
Closing line
DUKE -16.5✓ FSU covered by 12.5
DUKE -16.5✓ FSU covered by 12.5Closing total163.5Over by 14.5
| DUKE | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 12-1 | Record | 7-7 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 7-7 |
| 4-9 | O/U | 5-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DUKE 87–72 FSU · ✓ DUKE (90%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 42 | 49 | 91 |
| FSU | 42 | 45 | 87 |
1st half: DUKE 42, FSU 42 (tied). The model had DUKE by 8.8 and a total of 74.5 (actual 84).
Team stats
| DUKE | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-53 53% | Field goals | 31-58 53% |
| 12-27 44% | 3-pointers | 14-30 47% |
| 23-25 92% | Free throws | 11-16 69% |
| 31 10 off | Rebounds | 24 9 off |
| 23 | Assists | 17 |
| 8 | Steals | 10 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 36 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 33 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 8-17 | 6-14 |
| Caleb Foster G | 31 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 4-9 | 3-5 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 26 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 25 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dame Sarr F | 23 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| Maliq Brown F | 13 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Nik Khamenia F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Darren Harris G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cameron Sheffield, Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Jack Scott
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lajae Jones G | 33 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-6 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 32 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 8-12 | 4-6 |
| Robert McCray V G | 31 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 7-9 | 3-3 |
| Martin Somerville G | 25 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Alex Steen F | 19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe MaGee G | 28 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 6-11 | 4-7 |
| Cam Miles G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Alier Maluk F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jalen Crawford, Xavier Osceola, Max Garcia-Plata, Shah Muhammad, AJ Swinton
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDUKE -16.5
ModelDUKE -14.5
Model edgeFSU +2.0
W FSU covered
Total
Market163.5
Model159.0
Model edgeUnder 4.5
L Over
Projected score
DUKE 86.7 · FSU 72.3
DUKE 91 · FSU 87
Win probability
DUKE 90%
1st half
Spread
DUKE -8.8
tied
Total
74.5
84 points
Projected score
DUKE 41.6 · FSU 32.8
DUKE 42 · FSU 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDUKE -16.5
no move
CloseDUKE -16.5
No change since the open
Total
Open161.5
▲ 2
Close163.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
DUKE -1800 · FSU +1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -16.5 · unchangedmodel DUKE -14.5
model DUKE -14.5
Opened 161.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 2 upmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| FSU | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
DUKE 4–1 FSUDUKE leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · DUKE has won the last 4 meetings · DUKE 4-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | FSU 65 @ DUKE 100 | DUKE -22.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | DUKE 76 @ FSU 67 | FSU +6.5 | DUKE W |
| Dec 31, 2022-23 | FSU 67 @ DUKE 86 | DUKE -17.5 | DUKE W |
| Feb 19, 2021-22 | FSU 70 @ DUKE 88 | DUKE -16.5 | DUKE W |
| Jan 18, 2021-22 | DUKE 78 @ FSU 79 | FSU +5 | FSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Duke
13 games played
Straight up
12-1
92% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-9
31% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @ MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
over 4under 9avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
14 games played
Straight up
7-7
50% wins
Against the spread
7-7
50% covers · avg −5.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @ UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 7avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
over 5under 9avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Duke
12-1 overall · 1-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia Tech85–79
- Lvs Texas Tech81–82
- Wvs Lipscomb97–73
- W@ Michigan St66–60
- Wvs Florida67–66
3 days since their last game.
Florida St
7-7 overall · 0-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ North Carolina66–79
- Wvs Jacksonville87–63
- Wvs Miss Valley St96–49
- L@ Dayton69–97
- Lvs UMass95–103
4 days since their last game.