Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU · Conference game
Closing line
ETSU -7.5✓ SAM covered by 17.5
ETSU -7.5✓ SAM covered by 17.5Closing total145.5Over by 8.5
 SAM | This season | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| 12-12 | Record | 17-7 |
| 14-10 | ATS | 12-12 |
| 14-10 | O/U | 12-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SAM 71–78 ETSU · ✗ ETSU (74%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAM | 38 | 30 | 14 | 82 |
| ETSU | 37 | 31 | 4 | 72 |
1st half: SAM 38, ETSU 37 (SAM by 1). The model had ETSU by 4.2 and a total of 69.5 (actual 75).
Team stats
| SAM | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-53 42% | Field goals | 25-61 41% |
| 7-24 29% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 31-40 78% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 38 7 off | Rebounds | 34 8 off |
| 15 | Assists | 15 |
| 7 | Steals | 7 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 14 | Fouls | 27 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 21 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| SAM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadin Booth G | 44 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 4-14 | 3-9 |
| Cade Norris G | 44 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Keaton Norris G | 42 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Dylan Faulkner F | 35 | 24 | 10 | 1 | 10-18 | 0-0 |
| Kam Martin G | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zion Wilburn G | 29 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Will Shaver C | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Judson Bjornstad F | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Caleb Harrison, Cooper Davenport, JD Gossett, Joshua Hughes, Corey Brown, DaJion Humphrey, Jaxon Pollard, Zach Lamey, Isaiah Campbell-Finch
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Taylor II G | 44 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 11-18 | 3-7 |
| Jordan McCullum F | 35 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Allen Strothers G | 35 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-9 | 0-1 |
| Blake Barkley F | 35 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Cam Morris III F | 35 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Maki Johnson G | 17 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Jaylen Smith G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Sutherland F | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Milton Matthews III G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Joseph Carter, Henry Sisemore, Frederico Whitaker Jr., Maddox Huff, Gabe Sisk, Brayden Crump
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketETSU -7.5
ModelETSU -7.3
Model edgeSAM +0.3
W SAM covered
Total
Market145.5
Model148.6
Model edgeOver 3.1
W Over
Projected score
SAM 70.7 · ETSU 77.9
SAM 82 · ETSU 72
Win probability
ETSU 74%
1st half
Spread
ETSU -4.2
SAM -1.0
Total
69.5
75 points
Projected score
SAM 32.7 · ETSU 36.9
SAM 38 · ETSU 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenETSU -5.5
2 → ETSU
CloseETSU -7.5
2 pts toward ETSU
Total
Open147.5
▼ 2
Close145.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
SAM +250 · ETSU -310
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ETSU -5.5 · closed ETSU -7.5 · moved 2 toward ETSUmodel ETSU -7.5
model ETSU -7.5
Opened 147.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 2 downmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAM | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
| ETSU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
SAM 6–4 ETSUSAM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ETSU has won the last 3 meetings · SAM 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | ETSU 76 @ SAM 75 | SAM +3.5 | SAM W |
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | SAM 59 @ ETSU 66 | ETSU -1.5 | ETSU W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | ETSU 65 @ SAM 60 | SAM -5.5 | ETSU W |
| Mar 11, 2023-24 | ETSU 69 vs SAM 76 | SAM -8.5 | ETSU W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | ETSU 71 @ SAM 87 | SAM -10.5 | SAM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Samford
24 games played
Straight up
12-12
50% wins
Against the spread
14-10
58% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-10
58% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TULN | L 72-85 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | vs SCST | W 82-72 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 12 | @ TXSO | W 93-90 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 14 | @ ARK | L 75-79 | +24.5 | W +20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ CARK | W 84-77 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 19 | vs FGCU | L 62-77 | -5.5 | L −20.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 21 | @ NMSU | L 72-81 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vs GAST | W 78-63 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs UVU | L 45-89 | +7.5 | L −36.5 | 148.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 5 | @ VCU | L 57-83 | +19.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 7 | vs COR | W 93-90 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 1 | @ VMI | W 78-58 | -6.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | @ UNCG | L 82-89 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 7 | vs WCU | W 82-77 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 10 | @ UTC | L 79-88 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 14 | vs FUR | L 73-77 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | vsETSU | L 75-76 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 21 | @ WOF | L 78-88 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vsUTC | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 29 | @FUR | L 73-78 | +5.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 1 | @WCU | W 88-74 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 5 | vs CIT | W 78-64 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 7 | vs MER | W 69-49 | +1.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | U 118 |
| Feb 11 | vsWOF | W 97-80 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 177 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TULN
TULNL 72-85
−5.5
7
vsSCST
SCSTW 82-72
−4.5
12
@TXSO
TXSOW 93-90
+0.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-79
+20.5
16
@CARK
CARKW 84-77
+0.5
19
vsFGCU
FGCUL 62-77
−20.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 72-81
−0.5
25
vsGAST
GASTW 78-63
+9.5
26
vsUVU
UVUL 45-89
−36.5
5
@VCU
VCUL 57-83
−6.5
7
vsCOR
CORW 93-90
+0.5
1
@VMI
VMIW 78-58
+13.5
3
@UNCG
UNCGL 82-89
−9.5
7
vsWCU
WCUW 82-77
+0.5
10
@UTC
UTCL 79-88
−7.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 73-77
−2.5
17
vsETSU
ETSUL 75-76
+2.5
21
@WOF
WOFL 78-88
−6.5
24
vsUTC
UTCW 75-64
+6.5
29
@FUR
FURL 73-78
+0.5
1
@WCU
WCUW 88-74
+12.5
5
vsCIT
CITW 78-64
+0.5
7
vsMER
MERW 69-49
+21.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 97-80
+10.5
covered 14didn’t cover 10avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TULN
TULNL 72-85
+2.5
7
vsSCST
SCSTW 82-72
−0.5
12
@TXSO
TXSOW 93-90
+29.5
14
@ARK
ARKL 75-79
−4.5
16
@CARK
CARKW 84-77
+9.5
19
vsFGCU
FGCUL 62-77
−15.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 72-81
+7.5
25
vsGAST
GASTW 78-63
−5.5
26
vsUVU
UVUL 45-89
−14.5
5
@VCU
VCUL 57-83
−14.5
7
vsCOR
CORW 93-90
+16.5
1
@VMI
VMIW 78-58
−18.5
3
@UNCG
UNCGL 82-89
+19.5
7
vsWCU
WCUW 82-77
+5.5
10
@UTC
UTCL 79-88
+18.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 73-77
+0.5
17
vsETSU
ETSUL 75-76
+2.5
21
@WOF
WOFL 78-88
+11.5
24
vsUTC
UTCW 75-64
−13.5
29
@FUR
FURL 73-78
+1.5
1
@WCU
WCUW 88-74
+7.5
5
vsCIT
CITW 78-64
−4.5
7
vsMER
MERW 69-49
−42.5
11
vsWOF
WOFW 97-80
+26.5
over 14under 10avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
ETSU
24 games played
Straight up
17-7
71% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ PRES | L 64-68 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 12 | vs NKU | W 75-63 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ UNA | W 78-74 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 21 | vs MORE | W 77-62 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 23 | vs ULM | W 97-55 | -19.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 29 | vsCARK | W 80-57 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 2 | @ DAY | L 71-88 | +11.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 5 | vs USA | W 91-65 | -7.5 | W +18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 12 | @ APSU | L 75-76 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 16 | @ UNC | L 58-77 | +17.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs JXST | L 75-81 | -9.5 | L −15.5 | 134.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 30 | @CIT | W 74-49 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 3 | vsMER | W 77-71 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsVMI | W 81-67 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | vsUNCG | W 86-60 | -11.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 14 | @WCU | L 68-72 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 17 | @SAM | W 76-75 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 21 | @UTC | W 67-66 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 23 | vsCIT | W 84-55 | -17.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 29 | vsWCU | L 88-90 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 1 | @WOF | W 86-72 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 4 | vsFUR | W 75-71 | -5.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Feb 7 | @VMI | W 87-70 | -14.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 11 | vsUTC | W 73-61 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−10.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
+5.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+5.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
+4.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+22.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
+10.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
−5.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+18.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
−4.5
16
@UNC
UNCL 58-77
−1.5
20
vsJXST
JXSTL 75-81
−15.5
30
@CIT
CITW 74-49
+12.5
3
vsMER
MERW 77-71
−1.5
7
vsVMI
VMIW 81-67
−2.5
10
vsUNCG
UNCGW 86-60
+14.5
14
@WCU
WCUL 68-72
−10.5
17
@SAM
SAMW 76-75
−2.5
21
@UTC
UTCW 67-66
−3.5
23
vsCIT
CITW 84-55
+11.5
29
vsWCU
WCUL 88-90
−11.5
1
@WOF
WOFW 86-72
+12.5
4
vsFUR
FURW 75-71
−1.5
7
@VMI
VMIW 87-70
+2.5
11
vsUTC
UTCW 73-61
+1.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−9.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
−4.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+6.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
−5.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+5.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
−7.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
+18.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+12.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
+7.5
16
@UNC
UNCL 58-77
−15.5
20
vsJXST
JXSTL 75-81
+21.5
30
@CIT
CITW 74-49
−17.5
3
vsMER
MERW 77-71
−0.5
7
vsVMI
VMIW 81-67
+1.5
10
vsUNCG
UNCGW 86-60
−2.5
14
@WCU
WCUL 68-72
−7.5
17
@SAM
SAMW 76-75
+2.5
21
@UTC
UTCW 67-66
−10.5
23
vsCIT
CITW 84-55
−2.5
29
vsWCU
WCUL 88-90
+32.5
1
@WOF
WOFW 86-72
+11.5
4
vsFUR
FURW 75-71
+4.5
7
@VMI
VMIW 87-70
+13.5
11
vsUTC
UTCW 73-61
−11.5
over 12under 12avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Samford
12-12 overall · 7-6 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wofford97–80
- Wvs Mercer69–49
- Wvs The Citadel78–64
- W@ W Carolina88–74
- L@ Furman73–78
3 days since their last game.
ETSU
17-7 overall · 11-2 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Chattanooga73–61
- W@ VMI87–70
- Wvs Furman75–71
- W@ Wofford86–72
- Lvs W Carolina88–90
3 days since their last game.