First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St · Conference game
Closing line
ARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 7.5
ARST -4.5✓ ARST covered by 7.5Closing total160.5Under by 0.5
 TROY | This season | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | Record | 8-5 |
| 8-5 | ATS | 9-4 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 7-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TROY 82–85 ARST · ✓ ARST (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 32 | 42 | 74 |
| ARST | 45 | 41 | 86 |
1st half: TROY 32, ARST 45 (ARST by 13). The model had ARST by 1.9 and a total of 78.1 (actual 77).
Team stats
| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-65 42% | Field goals | 26-58 45% |
| 9-28 32% | 3-pointers | 12-30 40% |
| 11-18 61% | Free throws | 22-29 76% |
| 30 9 off | Rebounds | 44 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 14 |
| 9 | Steals | 8 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| TROY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Dowd F | 37 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 6-16 | 1-6 |
| Cooper Campbell G | 35 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-4 |
| Theo Seng F | 32 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 10-13 | 3-4 |
| Cobi Campbell G | 31 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
| Victor Valdes F | 28 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1-10 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kerrington Kiel F | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Austin Cross G | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Jerrell Bellamy C | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Hikaru Awata, Javen Colbert, Emmanuel Clarton, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell, Corbin Green
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harmon G | 29 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 6-10 | 4-8 |
| Chandler Jackson G | 28 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Jalen Hampton G | 27 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hayman G | 24 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6-17 | 0-7 |
| Chudi Dioramma F | 12 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 23 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-10 | 4-6 |
| Joey Chammaa G | 20 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Fredy-Salam Sylla G | 10 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Royal Blue Smith, Tim Matthews, Weston Honeycutt, CJ Geathers, Grayson Bennett
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARST -4.5
ModelARST -3.4
Model edgeTROY +1.1
L ARST covered
Total
Market160.5
Model166.8
Model edgeOver 6.3
L Under
Projected score
TROY 81.7 · ARST 85.1
TROY 74 · ARST 86
Win probability
ARST 62%
1st half
Spread
ARST -1.9
ARST -13.0
Total
78.1
77 points
Projected score
TROY 38.1 · ARST 40
TROY 32 · ARST 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -2.5
2 → ARST
CloseARST -4.5
2 pts toward ARST
Total
Open157.5
▲ 3
Close160.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
TROY +160 · ARST -192
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -2.5 · closed ARST -4.5 · moved 2 toward ARSTmodel ARST -3.5
model ARST -3.5
Opened 157.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 3 upmodel 167
model 167
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| ARST | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TROY 6–3 ARSTTROY leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · TROY has won the last 2 meetings · TROY 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024-25 | ARST 81 vs TROY 94 | TROY +2.5 | TROY W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | TROY 71 @ ARST 70 | ARST -6.5 | TROY W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | ARST 84 @ TROY 78 | TROY -2.5 | ARST W |
| Feb 22, 2023-24 | TROY 71 @ ARST 79 | ARST -1.5 | ARST W |
| Feb 15, 2023-24 | ARST 82 @ TROY 71 | TROY -6.5 | ARST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Troy
13 games played
Straight up
8-5
62% wins
Against the spread
8-5
62% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +12.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KENT | W 103-97 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | O 200 |
| Nov 7 | @ FUR | W 64-61 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 14 | @ LMU | L 63-74 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 16 | @ CSUN | L 85-94 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | @ SDSU | W 108-107 | +14.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 215 |
| Nov 20 | @ USC | L 106-107 | +18.5 | W +17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs TOL | L 68-75 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs SFPA | W 74-64 | -21.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 1 | vs WGA | L 89-93 | -17.5 | L −21.5 | 150.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 14 | @ UAB | W 86-85 | +6.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vs MRSH | W 70-63 | -4.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | vs TXST | W 100-80 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs USA | W 59-49 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 108 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+9.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
+5.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−6.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
−13.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+15.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+17.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−9.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−11.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
−21.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+7.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
+2.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+11.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
+0.5
covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KENT
KENTW 103-97
+57.5
7
@FUR
FURW 64-61
−27.5
14
@LMU
LMUL 63-74
−3.5
16
@CSUN
CSUNL 85-94
+21.5
18
@SDSU
SDSUW 108-107
+77.5
20
@USC
USCL 106-107
+53.5
24
vsTOL
TOLL 68-75
−16.5
26
vsSFPA
SFPAW 74-64
−13.5
1
vsWGA
WGAL 89-93
+31.5
14
@UAB
UABW 86-85
+15.5
20
vsMRSH
MRSHW 70-63
−22.5
31
vsTXST
TXSTW 100-80
+34.5
3
vsUSA
USAW 59-49
−40.5
over 7under 6avg +12.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas St
13 games played
Straight up
8-5
62% wins
Against the spread
9-4
69% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @ RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 17 | @TXST | W 89-70 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @ USM | W 93-86 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs JMU | L 74-78 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+14.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+5.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−14.5
covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+7.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+23.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−6.5
over 7under 6avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Troy
8-5 overall · 3-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs South Alabama59–49
- Wvs Texas St100–80
- Wvs Marshall70–63
- W@ UAB86–85
- Lvs West Georgia89–93
4 days since their last game.
Arkansas St
8-5 overall · 2-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs James Madison74–78
- W@ Southern Miss93–86
- W@ Texas St89–70
- L@ Rice76–77
- W@ Little Rock90–78
4 days since their last game.