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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

3,141 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games3,141100%By halftime512%In Q346515%In Q41,05434%In OT361%Stayed under1,53549%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands33611%Over cashed44714%Leader lost the game2468%
51% went over. Of the 1,606 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Went over in Q3: 465 games

2023–2026 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 8
 NMSU -3 46.5 7244754 Q3 NMSU Q2 30–24
2026 · Week 8
 DEL -3 54.5 21528099 Q3 DEL Q3 38–61
2026 · Week 7
 VAN -5.5 48.5 7284952 Q3 ARK Q2 31–21
2026 · Week 7
 WYO -7 42.5 10264464 Q3 WYO Q1 23–41
2026 · Week 7
 ARMY -2.5 55.5 28495980 Q3 ARMY Q2 24–56
2026 · Week 7
 JMU -7.5 57.5 21455871 Q3 JMU Q2 22–49
2026 · Week 7
 APP -1.5 48.5 21385267 Q3 APP Q3 35–32
2026 · Week 7
 TXST -15.5 69.5 21669393 Q3 TXST Q1 27–66
2026 · Week 7
 JXST -3 44.5 21344851 Q3 Push
Late cover flip
 24–27
2026 · Week 6
 UTAH -15.5 49.5 14385165 Q3 UTAH Q4 24–41
2026 · Week 6
 ORST -14.5 52.5 14457380 Q3 ORST Q2 14–66
2026 · Week 6
 NU -34.5 53.5 14455959 Q3 BALL Q1 14–45
2026 · Week 6
 ARIZ -3.5 61.5 17416283 Q3 ARIZ Q1 52–31
2026 · Week 6
 WASH -3 41.5 13305265 Q3 IOWA Q1 41–24
2026 · Week 6
 TROY -9.5 51.5 17386889 Q3 TROY Q1 34–55
2026 · Week 5
 ASU -3.5 49.5 17376174 Q3 BAY Q1 55–19
MCN @ LSU
2026 · Week 5
 LSU -53.5 62.5 14356377 Q3 MCN Q1 14–63
2026 · Week 5
 USA -12.5 57.5 28457387 Q3 USA Q1 35–52
2026 · Week 5
 ORST -7 60.5 21496282 Q3 ORST Q2 56–26
TXSO @ FAU
2026 · Week 5
 FAU -47.5 62.5 31596976 Q3 FAU Q3 10–66
2026 · Week 5
 GAST -1.5 51.5 17315252 Q3 GAST Q1 10–42
2026 · Week 5
 ND -21 46.5 21354763 Q3 UNC Q1 37–26
2026 · Week 5
 ALA -5.5 62.5 21456579 Q3 ALA Q1 56–23
2026 · Week 5
 ISU -3 53.5 14355687 Q3 Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2026 · Week 5
 SYR -6.5 51.5 1341546883 Q3 CONN Q4 42–41
2026 · Week 5
 MEM -18.5 52.5 14245367 Q3 MEM Q2 59–8
2026 · Week 4
 FAU -11.5 58.5 14525962 Q3 FAU Q2 45–17
HCU @ UNT
2026 · Week 4
 UNT -38.5 60.5 21496377 Q3 UNT Q4 14–63
2026 · Week 4
 UTSA -14.5 56.5 355677104 Q3 CSU Q1 45–59
HOW @ RUTG
2026 · Week 4
 RUTG -42.5 57.5 28485865 Q3 RUTG Q3 7–58
2026 · Week 3
 UCLA -13.5 53.5 28456990 Q3 UCLA Q4 38–52
2026 · Week 3
 FLA -2.5 53.5 10375883 Q3 FLA Q1 44–39
2026 · Week 3
 UCF -17.5 50.5 24446174 Q3 GAST Q1 30–44
2026 · Week 3
 USA -7 49.5 21315277 Q3 OHIO Q4
Late cover flip
 36–41
NICH @ SHSU
2026 · Week 3
 SHSU -21 50.5 10315259 Q3 SHSU Q2 0–59
2026 · Week 3
 ALA -18.5 50.5 17476886 Q3 FSU Q1 36–50
SELA @ ULM
2026 · Week 3
 ULM -9.5 48.5 7375173 Q3 SELA Q1 38–35
UNI @ IOWA
2026 · Week 3
 IOWA -37.5 48.5 21424955 Q3 IOWA Q2 0–55
2026 · Week 3
 LIB -14.5 49.5 20305266 Q3 LIB Q2 15–51
2026 · Week 3
 USC -21 59.5 17346377 Q3 RUTG Q1 42–35
2026 · Week 3
 MICH -34.5 48.5 7315969 Q3 MICH Q4
Late cover flip
 17–52
2026 · Week 3
 WIS -23.5 43.5 10384864 Q3 WIS Q2 10–54
2026 · Week 3
 PSU -39.5 48.5 20405468 Q3 PSU Q3 13–55
2026 · Week 3
 ISU -22.5 43.5 28425262 Q3 ISU Q2 7–55
2026 · Week 3
 TXST -3 62.5 28566384 Q3 TXST Q3 35–49
2026 · Week 2
 FRES -17.5 43.5 0324952 Q3 FRES Q2 3–49
SOU @ HOU
2026 · Week 2
 HOU -51.5 61.5 28497683 Q3 HOU Q3 6–77
LIN @ MOST
2026 · Week 2
 MOST -16.5 53.5 14345562 Q3 MOST Q2 14–48
2026 · Week 2
 ALA -9.5 47.5 14304862 Q3 ALA Q3 45–17
WEB @ COLO
2026 · Week 2
 COLO -38.5 57.5 28565973 Q3 WEB Q1 21–52
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 465

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 1,568
Q2 16% 494
Q3 15% 471
Q4 18% 556
OT 1% 18
Push 1% 34
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 69% of 2,929 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 72% of 2,988 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over516100% 516
1–319295% 182
4–729586% 255
8–1026170% 184
11–1434558% 200
15–1727041% 110
18–2133927% 92
22+9237% 67
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.