Save Mart Center · at Fresno St · Conference game
Closing line
NEV -4.5✓ FRES covered by 3.5
NEV -4.5✓ FRES covered by 3.5Closing total146.5Under by 15.5
| NEV | This season | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | Record | 5-7 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 7-5 |
| 8-5 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NEV 77–70 FRES · ✓ NEV (73%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 21 | 45 | 66 |
| FRES | 26 | 39 | 65 |
1st half: NEV 21, FRES 26 (FRES by 5). The model had NEV by 4.3 and a total of 69.1 (actual 47).
Team stats
| NEV | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-56 43% | Field goals | 24-54 44% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 8-19 42% |
| 12-18 67% | Free throws | 9-11 82% |
| 29 9 off | Rebounds | 36 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 14 |
| 9 | Steals | 6 |
| 7 | Blocks | 0 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| NEV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Price F | 32 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-1 |
| Vaughn Weems G | 26 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Kaleb Lowery F | 18 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Chuck Bailey III G | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Tayshawn Comer G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1-8 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tyler Rolison G | 24 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Corey Camper Jr. G | 23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Peyton White G | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Myles Walker G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jeriah Coleman C | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Amire Robinson G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Ethan Croley F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Christopher Baudreau, Joel Armotrading
| FRES | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Heidbreder G | 38 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 9-19 | 5-9 |
| Zaon Collins G | 35 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Wilson Jacques C | 33 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-0 |
| DeShawn Gory F | 31 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| Cameron Faas G | 25 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| David Douglas Jr. G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bastien Rieber G | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Gasper Kocevar C | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| DJ Stickman G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Makhan Diouf F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matteo Porto, Nathan Zulemie, Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano, Troy Jenkins, Jac Mani
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNEV -4.5
ModelNEV -6.9
Model edgeNEV +2.4
L FRES covered
Total
Market146.5
Model147.6
Model edgeOver 1.1
L Under
Projected score
NEV 77.3 · FRES 70.3
NEV 66 · FRES 65
Win probability
NEV 73%
1st half
Spread
NEV -4.3
FRES -5.0
Total
69.1
47 points
Projected score
NEV 36.7 · FRES 32.4
NEV 21 · FRES 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEV -6.5
2 → FRES
CloseNEV -4.5
2 pts toward FRES
Total
Open147.5
▼ 1
Close146.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
NEV -192 · FRES +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEV -6.5 · closed NEV -4.5 · moved 2 toward FRESmodel NEV -7
model NEV -7
Opened 147.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 1 downmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| FRES | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
NEV 8–1 FRESNEV leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · NEV has won the last 7 meetings · NEV 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | FRES 71 vs NEV 86 | NEV -12.5 | NEV W |
| Feb 10, 2024-25 | FRES 69 @ NEV 94 | NEV -15.5 | NEV W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | NEV 77 @ FRES 66 | FRES +12.5 | FRES W |
| Mar 1, 2023-24 | FRES 66 @ NEV 74 | NEV -14.5 | FRES W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | NEV 72 @ FRES 57 | FRES +6.5 | NEV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Nevada
13 games played
Straight up
10-3
77% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-5
62% overs · avg +4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs LT | W 77-50 | -9.5 | W +17.5 | 136.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 8 | vs PAC | W 78-77 | -13.5 | L −12.5 | 139.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 12 | vs SIU | W 86-81 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 15 | @ SCU | L 83-98 | +6.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | O 181 |
| Nov 18 | vs UCD | L 71-75 | -12.5 | L −16.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 22 | vs UCSB | W 77-64 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 27 | vs WASH | L 66-83 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 28 | vs SF | W 81-65 | +5.5 | W +21.5 | 142.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 2 | vs UCSD | W 76-70 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 7 | @ WSU | W 78-64 | +2.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs DUQ | W 78-75 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 20 | vs BOIS | W 81-66 | +3.5 | W +18.5 | 141.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 30 | @ CSU | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsLT
LTW 77-50
+17.5
8
vsPAC
PACW 78-77
−12.5
12
vsSIU
SIUW 86-81
−6.5
15
@SCU
SCUL 83-98
−8.5
18
vsUCD
UCDL 71-75
−16.5
22
vsUCSB
UCSBW 77-64
+7.5
27
vsWASH
WASHL 66-83
−13.5
28
vsSF
SFW 81-65
+21.5
2
vsUCSD
UCSDW 76-70
+0.5
7
@WSU
WSUW 78-64
+16.5
13
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-75
−2.5
20
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-66
+18.5
30
@CSU
CSUW 75-62
+14.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsLT
LTW 77-50
−9.5
8
vsPAC
PACW 78-77
+15.5
12
vsSIU
SIUW 86-81
+14.5
15
@SCU
SCUL 83-98
+36.5
18
vsUCD
UCDL 71-75
+2.5
22
vsUCSB
UCSBW 77-64
−6.5
27
vsWASH
WASHL 66-83
+3.5
28
vsSF
SFW 81-65
+3.5
2
vsUCSD
UCSDW 76-70
−3.5
7
@WSU
WSUW 78-64
−3.5
13
vsDUQ
DUQW 78-75
+1.5
20
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-66
+5.5
30
@CSU
CSUW 75-62
−2.5
over 8under 5avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Fresno St
12 games played
Straight up
5-7
42% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UPST | L 66-67 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 8 | vs LBSU | W 82-62 | -6.5 | W +13.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 12 | vsUCSD | L 73-78 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs UVU | W 75-74 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 18 | vs SFA | W 80-78 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 21 | vs NOLA | W 85-76 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs PEPP | W 76-53 | -2.5 | W +20.5 | 150.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 30 | vs CSUB | L 71-76 | -10.5 | L −15.5 | 150.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 6 | @ ARK | L 58-82 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | @ CSUN | L 87-89 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 161.5 | O 176 |
| Dec 20 | @ UNLV | L 72-84 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 30 | vs USU | L 63-72 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUPST
UPSTL 66-67
−10.5
8
vsLBSU
LBSUW 82-62
+13.5
12
vsUCSD
UCSDL 73-78
−6.5
15
vsUVU
UVUW 75-74
+5.5
18
vsSFA
SFAW 80-78
+4.5
21
vsNOLA
NOLAW 85-76
+2.5
26
vsPEPP
PEPPW 76-53
+20.5
30
vsCSUB
CSUBL 71-76
−15.5
6
@ARK
ARKL 58-82
−4.5
10
@CSUN
CSUNL 87-89
+1.5
20
@UNLV
UNLVL 72-84
−3.5
30
vsUSU
USUL 63-72
+5.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUPST
UPSTL 66-67
−31.5
8
vsLBSU
LBSUW 82-62
+1.5
12
vsUCSD
UCSDL 73-78
+2.5
15
vsUVU
UVUW 75-74
−7.5
18
vsSFA
SFAW 80-78
+11.5
21
vsNOLA
NOLAW 85-76
+6.5
26
vsPEPP
PEPPW 76-53
−21.5
30
vsCSUB
CSUBL 71-76
−3.5
6
@ARK
ARKL 58-82
−21.5
10
@CSUN
CSUNL 87-89
+14.5
20
@UNLV
UNLVL 72-84
−3.5
30
vsUSU
USUL 63-72
−19.5
over 5under 7avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Nevada
10-3 overall · 2-0 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Colorado St75–62
- Wvs Boise St81–66
- Wvs Duquesne78–75
- W@ Washington St78–64
- Wvs UC San Diego76–70
4 days since their last game.
Fresno St
5-7 overall · 0-2 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Utah State63–72
- L@ UNLV72–84
- L@ CSU Northridge87–89
- L@ Arkansas58–82
- Lvs Bakersfield71–76
4 days since their last game.