Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St
Closing line
MSST -17.5✓ MSST covered by 20.5
MSST -17.5✓ MSST covered by 20.5Closing total154.5Under by 4.5
 ALST | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 2-9 | Record | 7-5 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 3-9 |
| 5-6 | O/U | 7-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ALST 69–88 MSST · ✓ MSST (95%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 31 | 25 | 56 |
| MSST | 49 | 45 | 94 |
1st half: ALST 31, MSST 49 (MSST by 18). The model had MSST by 11.3 and a total of 73.7 (actual 80).
Team stats
| ALST | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 14-50 28% | Field goals | 37-69 54% |
| 5-19 26% | 3-pointers | 10-25 40% |
| 23-34 68% | Free throws | 10-14 71% |
| 27 9 off | Rebounds | 49 17 off |
| 3 | Assists | 19 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 12 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| ALST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Simpson G | 31 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-6 |
| Cameron Palesse G | 31 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jerquarius Stanback F | 28 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-2 |
| Asjon Anderson G | 28 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| R'Chaun King F | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tyler Byrd G | 24 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Damarien Yates F | 17 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Kevin Alabi F | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Mason F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Mario Andrews C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jordon Marshall G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Damion Cox Jr., Damarion Bonds, Tyler Mack, Trey Miller, JaSteven Walker
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 24 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 9-13 | 4-7 |
| Jayden Epps G | 21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-5 |
| Sergej Macura F | 20 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Achor Achor F | 19 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 17 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 18 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| King Grace G | 16 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-3 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 14 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Brandon Walker F | 9 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Amier Ali F | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
Did not play: Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSST -17.5
ModelMSST -19.1
Model edgeMSST +1.6
W MSST covered
Total
Market154.5
Model157.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
L Under
Projected score
ALST 69.2 · MSST 88.3
ALST 56 · MSST 94
Win probability
MSST 95%
1st half
Spread
MSST -11.3
MSST -18.0
Total
73.7
80 points
Projected score
ALST 31.2 · MSST 42.5
ALST 31 · MSST 49
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -19.5
2 → ALST
CloseMSST -17.5
2 pts toward ALST
Total
Open154.5
no move
Close154.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ALST +1100 · MSST -2100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -19.5 · closed MSST -17.5 · moved 2 toward ALSTmodel MSST -19
model MSST -19
Opened 154.5 · unchangedmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| MSST | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Alabama St
11 games played
Straight up
2-9
18% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ FSU | L 64-101 | +24.5 | L −12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ UAB | W 77-74 | +19.5 | W +22.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 17 | @ COLO | L 66-94 | +22.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 19 | @ AF | L 64-66 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 138.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 21 | vs IUIN | W 101-80 | +2.5 | W +23.5 | 181.5 | U 181 |
| Nov 23 | vs SIUE | L 68-83 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 26 | @ UNM | L 87-93 | +19.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 7 | @ UTM | L 64-74 | +6.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 11 | @ MIZ | L 77-85 | +26.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 17 | @ CIN | L 51-88 | +21.5 | L −15.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 22 | @ MEM | L 67-88 | +20.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@FSU
FSUL 64-101
−12.5
11
@UAB
UABW 77-74
+22.5
17
@COLO
COLOL 66-94
−5.5
19
@AF
AFL 64-66
+0.5
21
vsIUIN
IUINW 101-80
+23.5
23
vsSIUE
SIUEL 68-83
−13.5
26
@UNM
UNML 87-93
+13.5
7
@UTM
UTML 64-74
−3.5
11
@MIZ
MIZL 77-85
+18.5
17
@CIN
CINL 51-88
−15.5
22
@MEM
MEML 67-88
−0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@FSU
FSUL 64-101
−1.5
11
@UAB
UABW 77-74
−13.5
17
@COLO
COLOL 66-94
+3.5
19
@AF
AFL 64-66
−8.5
21
vsIUIN
IUINW 101-80
−0.5
23
vsSIUE
SIUEL 68-83
+8.5
26
@UNM
UNML 87-93
+31.5
7
@UTM
UTML 64-74
−6.5
11
@MIZ
MIZL 77-85
+6.5
17
@CIN
CINL 51-88
−6.5
22
@MEM
MEML 67-88
+3.5
over 5under 6avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
12 games played
Straight up
7-5
58% wins
Against the spread
3-9
25% covers · avg −7.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vsUNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vsMEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 9avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
over 7under 5avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Alabama St
2-9 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Memphis67–88
- L@ Cincinnati51–88
- L@ Missouri77–85
- L@ UT Martin64–74
- L@ New Mexico87–93
A week or more of rest.
Mississippi St
7-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Memphis71–66
- Wvs Long Island87–83
- Wvs Utah82–74
- Lvs San Francisco62–65
- W@ Georgia Tech85–73
A week or more of rest.