When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
39 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 30.5–36.5 · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 16 overs, 19% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
All 39 games
2023–2026 · Totals 30.5–36.5 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
KC -3.5 | 35.5 | 391226 | U | LV Q1 | 12–14 |
2025 · Week 17 |
PIT -3.5 | 34.5 | 10161619 | U | CLE Q1 | 6–13 |
2025 · Week 15 |
PHI -12.5 | 36.5 | 7172431 | U | PHI Q2 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 14 |
CLE -4.5 | 33.5 | 17313860 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 31–29 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SF -5.5 | 35.5 | 7182534 | U | SF Q3 | 26–8 |
2025 · Week 12 |
LV -3.5 | 36.5 | 14171734 | U | CLE Q1 | 24–10 |
2025 · Week 7 |
CLE -2.5 | 35.5 | 3233037 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 6–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
MIN -3.5 | 35.5 | 14173138 | Q4 | MIN Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–17 |
2024 · Week 18 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 7192237 | Q4 | HOU Q1 Late over |
23–14 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BUF -3.5 | 36.5 | 7243339 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
16–23 |
2024 · Week 18 |
PHI -2.5 | 35.5 | 7101333 | U | PHI Q1 | 13–20 |
2024 · Week 17 |
MIA -3.5 | 32.5 | 391623 | U | MIA Q3 | 20–3 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 0131643 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Lead lost |
19–24 |
2024 · Week 6 |
PIT -3.5 | 36.5 | 10192945 | Q4 | PIT Q2 Late over |
32–13 |
2024 · Week 5 |
DEN -2.5 | 35.5 | 10233052 | Q4 | DEN Q2 | 18–34 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 24274144 | Q3 | GB Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 3 |
PIT -2.5 | 35.5 | 7172030 | U | PIT Q4 | 10–20 |
2023 · Week 18 |
LAC -3.5 | 35 | 7161925 | U | KC Q1 | 13–12 |
2023 · Week 18 |
TB -4.5 | 36.5 | 0669 | U | TB Q2 | 9–0 |
2023 · Week 18 |
PIT -3 | 34 | 7141427 | U | PIT Q4 | 17–10 |
2023 · Week 17 |
CLE -7 | 33.5 | 27515157 | Q2 | CLE Q1 | 20–37 |
2023 · Week 16 |
NYJ -3 | 36 | 17344158 | Q3 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip |
28–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
MIA -7 | 35.5 | 7242730 | U | MIA Q2 | 0–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
ATL -2.5 | 32.5 | 0101016 | U | CAR Q4 Lead lost |
7–9 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LV -3 | 36 | 21426384 | Q2 | LV Q1 | 21–63 |
2023 · Week 14 |
HOU -3 | 33.5 | 002036 | Q4 | NYJ Q1 Late over |
6–30 |
2023 · Week 14 |
PIT -5.5 | 30.5 | 10313139 | Q2 | NE Q1 | 21–18 |
2023 · Week 13 |
ATL -2 | 33 | 2152121 | U | ATL Q2 | 13–8 |
2023 · Week 12 |
PIT -2 | 36 | 0101726 | U | PIT Q3 | 16–10 |
2023 · Week 12 |
TEN -3.5 | 36 | 7202727 | U | TEN Q1 | 10–17 |
2023 · Week 12 |
NE -4.5 | 36 | 071417 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
CLE -2.5 | 34 | 7101723 | U | CLE Q1 Late cover flip |
10–13 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NYJ PK | 36.5 | 9151828 | U | LV Q4 | 12–16 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PIT -3 | 36 | 10232936 | P | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
ATL -2.5 | 35 | 10173051 | Q4 | TEN Q1 | 23–28 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 7 |
WSH -3.5 | 36.5 | 0142121 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–14 |
2023 · Week 6 |
SF -9.5 | 35.5 | 7172336 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
17–19 |
KC
LV
PIT
CLE
PHI
TEN
SF
MIA
MIN
HOU
BUF
NE
NYG
DEN
GB
LAC
TB
CAR
BAL
NYJ
WSH
ATL
CINWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 21
Q2 15% 6
Q3 8% 3
Q4 21% 8
OT 0% 0
Push 3% 1
The team leading at halftime won 76% and covered 70% of 37 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 82% of 34 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 6 | 100% 6 |
| 4–7 | 5 | 100% 5 |
| 8–10 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 11–14 | 5 | 40% 2 |
| 15–17 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 18–21 | 9 | 11% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.