Lenovo Center · at NC State · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -10.5✓ NCSU covered by 2.5
NCSU -10.5✓ NCSU covered by 2.5Closing total159.5Under by 32.5
 WAKE | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-4 | Record | 9-4 |
| 6-7 | ATS | 7-6 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 7-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WAKE 77–84 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (73%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 32 | 25 | 57 |
| NCSU | 36 | 34 | 70 |
1st half: WAKE 32, NCSU 36 (NCSU by 4). The model had NCSU by 4.1 and a total of 75.1 (actual 68).
Team stats
| WAKE | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-59 34% | Field goals | 25-59 42% |
| 8-31 26% | 3-pointers | 6-21 29% |
| 9-13 69% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 35 10 off | Rebounds | 40 10 off |
| 13 | Assists | 16 |
| 9 | Steals | 10 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| WAKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Von Spillers F | 37 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-1 |
| Juke Harris G | 36 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 5-16 | 2-10 |
| Nate Calmese G | 33 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Omaha Biliew F | 28 | 18 | 10 | 0 | 6-10 | 3-6 |
| Myles Colvin G | 22 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mekhi Mason G | 21 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Cooper Schwieger F | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Sebastian Akins G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Cross G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dimitrije Kovacevic, Anson Beard Jr., Isaac Carr, Will Underwood, Vincent Ricchiuti, Marqus Marion, Owen Kmety
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 32 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 31 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 5-11 | 0-0 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 26 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Darrion Williams F | 21 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3-12 | 2-6 |
| Alyn Breed G | 17 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tre Holloman G | 28 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 26 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Matt Able G | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Jerry Deng, Colt Langdon, Terrance Arceneaux, Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNCSU -10.5
ModelNCSU -7.1
Model edgeWAKE +3.4
L NCSU covered
Total
Market159.5
Model160.5
Model edgeOver 1.0
L Under
Projected score
WAKE 76.7 · NCSU 83.8
WAKE 57 · NCSU 70
Win probability
NCSU 73%
1st half
Spread
NCSU -4.1
NCSU -4.0
Total
75.1
68 points
Projected score
WAKE 35.5 · NCSU 39.6
WAKE 32 · NCSU 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -9.5
1 → NCSU
CloseNCSU -10.5
1 pt toward NCSU
Total
Open160.5
▼ 1
Close159.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
WAKE +440 · NCSU -600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -9.5 · closed NCSU -10.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel NCSU -7
model NCSU -7
Opened 160.5 · closed 159.5 · moved 1 downmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| NCSU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
WAKE 4–4 NCSUSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · WAKE 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | WAKE 73 @ NCSU 85 | NCSU +4.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | NCSU 59 @ WAKE 77 | WAKE -5.5 | WAKE W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | NCSU 79 @ WAKE 83 | WAKE -8.5 | NCSU W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | WAKE 76 @ NCSU 83 | NCSU -1.5 | NCSU W |
| Feb 22, 2022-23 | WAKE 74 @ NCSU 90 | NCSU -4.5 | NCSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wake Forest
13 games played
Straight up
9-4
69% wins
Against the spread
6-7
46% covers · avg +0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AMER | W 88-74 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 7 | vs MORE | W 81-65 | -22.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 11 | vs MICH | L 84-85 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 16 | vs UML | W 109-75 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 20 | vs TTU | L 83-84 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs MEM | W 69-68 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs CAM | W 99-51 | -17.5 | W +30.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 28 | vs NE | W 86-73 | -17.5 | L −4.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs OU | L 68-86 | -4.5 | L −22.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs WVU | W 75-66 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 14 | vs QUC | W 111-73 | -18.5 | W +19.5 | 165.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 17 | vs LONG | W 71-68 | -24.5 | L −21.5 | 163.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs VAN | L 67-98 | +5.5 | L −25.5 | 164.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
−5.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+14.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+3.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+8.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−1.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
+30.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
−4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−22.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
+11.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+19.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−21.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
−25.5
covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAMER
AMERW 88-74
+22.5
7
vsMORE
MOREW 81-65
−6.5
11
vsMICH
MICHL 84-85
+0.5
16
vsUML
UMLW 109-75
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 69-68
−23.5
25
vsCAM
CAMW 99-51
−9.5
28
vsNE
NEW 86-73
+4.5
2
vsOU
OUL 68-86
−5.5
6
vsWVU
WVUW 75-66
−2.5
14
vsQUC
QUCW 111-73
+18.5
17
vsLONG
LONGW 71-68
−24.5
21
vsVAN
VANL 67-98
+0.5
over 7under 6avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
13 games played
Straight up
9-4
69% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +6.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
over 7under 6avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wake Forest
9-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Vanderbilt67–98
- Wvs Longwood71–68
- Wvs Queens University Royals111–73
- Wvs West Virginia75–66
- Lvs Oklahoma68–86
A week or more of rest.
NC State
9-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ole Miss76–62
- Wvs Texas Southern108–72
- Lvs Kansas76–77
- Wvs Liberty85–45
- Wvs UNC Asheville75–63
A week or more of rest.