Jack Stephens Center · at Little Rock · Conference game
Closing line
TNST -1.5✓ TNST covered by 3.5
TNST -1.5✓ TNST covered by 3.5Closing total144.5Over by 18.5
| TNST | This season | LR |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | Record | 3-9 |
| 7-3 | ATS | 4-8 |
| 5-5 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TNST 73–71 LR · ✓ TNST (57%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 33 | 51 | 84 |
| LR | 32 | 47 | 79 |
1st half: TNST 33, LR 32 (TNST by 1). The model had TNST by 1.4 and a total of 67.8 (actual 65).
Team stats
| TNST | LR | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-68 46% | Field goals | 26-59 44% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 17-21 81% | Free throws | 21-29 72% |
| 40 14 off | Rebounds | 39 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 14 |
| 10 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 50 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 17 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| TNST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nkrumah G | 38 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 8-17 | 1-6 |
| Dante Harris G | 31 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Travis Harper II G | 28 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 7-14 | 3-7 |
| Jalen Pitre F | 28 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Antoine Lorick III F | 23 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kavien Jones F | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Khalil London G | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Damon Howard Jr. G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| JC Brooks F | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Carlous Williams F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jabrion Spikes, Jayden Jones, Ogien Ayo, Jean Lafleur, Maddux Bodenhamer, Alex Garcia
| LR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson G | 40 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 5-16 | 3-10 |
| Braxton Bayless G | 38 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Tuongthach Gatkek F | 37 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Kachi Nzeh F | 28 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Cameron Wallace F | 28 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-10 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Truman Claytor IV F | 24 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Caleb Pennyfeather F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Khasen Robinson, Joseph Thomas, Travonne Jackson, Christian Hughes, Kellen Robinson, Terrion Burgess, Tracy Steele Jr., KK Robinson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTNST -1.5
ModelTNST -2.1
Model edgeTNST +0.6
W TNST covered
Total
Market144.5
Model144.8
Model edgeOver 0.3
W Over
Projected score
TNST 73.4 · LR 71.4
TNST 84 · LR 79
Win probability
TNST 57%
1st half
Spread
TNST -1.4
TNST -1.0
Total
67.8
65 points
Projected score
TNST 34.6 · LR 33.2
TNST 33 · LR 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTNST -1.5
no move
CloseTNST -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
▲ 1
Close144.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
TNST -115 · LR -105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TNST -1.5 · unchangedmodel TNST -2
model TNST -2
Opened 143.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 1 upmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| LR | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
TNST 4–2 LRTNST leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · TNST has won the last 2 meetings · TNST 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | TNST 72 @ LR 70 | LR -7.5 | TNST W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | LR 86 @ TNST 95 | TNST -1.5 | TNST W |
| Feb 29, 2023-24 | TNST 60 @ LR 85 | LR -7.5 | LR W |
| Dec 30, 2023-24 | LR 82 @ TNST 90 | TNST -3 | TNST W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | TNST 77 @ LR 89 | LR +2.5 | LR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee St
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
7-3
70% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ BEL | L 79-87 | +13.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 16 | @ WKU | L 82-95 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 20 | @ TENN | L 60-89 | +31.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 25 | @ UNCA | W 75-73 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTC | W 70-64 | +8.5 | W +14.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 3 | @ AAMU | L 53-80 | -4.5 | L −31.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 13 | @ UNLV | W 63-60 | +12.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 18 | vs UTM | W 78-71 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 20 | vs SEMO | L 82-91 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 30 | @ TNTC | W 88-76 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@BEL
BELL 79-87
+5.5
16
@WKU
WKUL 82-95
−0.5
20
@TENN
TENNL 60-89
+2.5
25
@UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
+7.5
30
@UTC
UTCW 70-64
+14.5
3
@AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−31.5
13
@UNLV
UNLVW 63-60
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 78-71
+4.5
20
vsSEMO
SEMOL 82-91
−7.5
30
@TNTC
TNTCW 88-76
+10.5
covered 7didn’t cover 3avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@BEL
BELL 79-87
+7.5
16
@WKU
WKUL 82-95
+9.5
20
@TENN
TENNL 60-89
−8.5
25
@UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
−16.5
30
@UTC
UTCW 70-64
−21.5
3
@AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−14.5
13
@UNLV
UNLVW 63-60
−38.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 78-71
+7.5
20
vsSEMO
SEMOL 82-91
+21.5
30
@TNTC
TNTCW 88-76
+8.5
over 5under 5avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Little Rock
12 games played
Straight up
3-9
25% wins
Against the spread
4-8
33% covers · avg −4.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | @ MILW | L 72-92 | +3.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | @ MARQ | L 49-89 | +21.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ BALL | W 68-62 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 18 | @ MUR | L 68-89 | +13.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ TXST | L 56-65 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 29 | @ SIU | L 65-74 | +13.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 3 | @ CARK | L 47-85 | +3.5 | L −34.5 | 138.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 6 | vs ARST | L 78-90 | +9.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 9 | @ WVU | L 58-90 | +27.5 | L −4.5 | 132.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | @ MORE | L 64-78 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 18 | @ USI | W 77-62 | -2.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 1 | vsTNTC | W 77-58 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 144.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
10
@MILW
MILWL 72-92
−16.5
12
@MARQ
MARQL 49-89
−18.5
15
@BALL
BALLW 68-62
+8.5
18
@MUR
MURL 68-89
−7.5
21
@TXST
TXSTL 56-65
−3.5
29
@SIU
SIUL 65-74
+4.5
3
@CARK
CARKL 47-85
−34.5
6
vsARST
ARSTL 78-90
−2.5
9
@WVU
WVUL 58-90
−4.5
16
@MORE
MOREL 64-78
−11.5
18
@USI
USIW 77-62
+12.5
1
vsTNTC
TNTCW 77-58
+17.5
covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
10
@MILW
MILWL 72-92
+7.5
12
@MARQ
MARQL 49-89
−17.5
15
@BALL
BALLW 68-62
−16.5
18
@MUR
MURL 68-89
+3.5
21
@TXST
TXSTL 56-65
−10.5
29
@SIU
SIUL 65-74
−2.5
3
@CARK
CARKL 47-85
−6.5
6
vsARST
ARSTL 78-90
+20.5
9
@WVU
WVUL 58-90
+15.5
16
@MORE
MOREL 64-78
+5.5
18
@USI
USIW 77-62
−1.5
1
vsTNTC
TNTCW 77-58
−9.5
over 5under 7avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee St
5-5 overall · 2-1 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Tennessee Tech88–76
- Lvs SE Missouri82–91
- Wvs UT Martin78–71
- W@ UNLV63–60
- L@ Alabama A&M53–80
4 days since their last game.
Little Rock
3-9 overall · 2-1 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Tennessee Tech77–58
- W@ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles77–62
- L@ Morehead St64–78
- L@ West Virginia58–90
- Lvs Arkansas St78–90
2 days since their last game.