Thomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game
Closing line
MTSU -3.5✓ LT covered by 4.5
MTSU -3.5✓ LT covered by 4.5Closing total131.5Under by 14.5
| MTSU | This season | LT |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | Record | 6-7 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 5-8 |
| 5-8 | O/U | 6-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MTSU 68–64 LT · ✗ MTSU (63%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 40 | 18 | 58 |
| LT | 21 | 38 | 59 |
1st half: MTSU 40, LT 21 (MTSU by 19). The model had MTSU by 2.5 and a total of 62.1 (actual 61).
Team stats
| MTSU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-54 39% | Field goals | 21-58 36% |
| 7-20 35% | 3-pointers | 1-12 8% |
| 9-18 50% | Free throws | 16-21 76% |
| 43 12 off | Rebounds | 32 9 off |
| 14 | Assists | 8 |
| 3 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 6 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamari Lands G | 34 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 5-16 | 1-4 |
| Jahvin Carter G | 30 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-12 | 2-7 |
| Torey Alston F | 28 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Chris Loofe F | 22 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Alec Oglesby G | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| James Dent Jr. G | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Luka Jovanovic C | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Sean Smith G | 16 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Tre Green G | 12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Jax Howard, Charvez Ambrose, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle, Marcus Whitlock Jr., Jarred Hall
| LT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Dudley G | 37 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 5-12 | 1-3 |
| Avery Thomas II F | 36 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 2-10 | 0-4 |
| Jaylen Fenner G | 33 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4-12 | 0-2 |
| AJ Bates G | 33 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 5-12 | 0-2 |
| Melian Martinez C | 27 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Scooter Williams G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Sir Issac Herron F | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Cooper F | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Will Allen F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kylan Howze F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Keegan Rowell G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: A'Meir Williams, Jermaurhiyun Anderson, Lachlan Thompson, Will Jeffress
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMTSU -3.5
ModelMTSU -3.9
Model edgeMTSU +0.4
L LT covered
Total
Market131.5
Model132.4
Model edgeOver 0.9
L Under
Projected score
MTSU 68.2 · LT 64.3
MTSU 58 · LT 59
Win probability
MTSU 63%
1st half
Spread
MTSU -2.5
MTSU -19.0
Total
62.1
61 points
Projected score
MTSU 32.3 · LT 29.8
MTSU 40 · LT 21
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTSU -3.5
no move
CloseMTSU -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open129.5
▲ 2
Close131.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MTSU -175 · LT +145
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel MTSU -4
model MTSU -4
Opened 129.5 · closed 131.5 · moved 2 upmodel 132.5
model 132.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| LT | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MTSU 5–4 LTMTSU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MTSU has won the last 2 meetings · MTSU 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025-26 | LT 51 @ MTSU 88 | MTSU -6.5 | MTSU W |
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | LT 75 vs MTSU 77 | MTSU -1.5 | MTSU W |
| Feb 20, 2024-25 | LT 85 @ MTSU 74 | MTSU -6.5 | LT W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | MTSU 69 @ LT 75 | LT -2.5 | LT W |
| Mar 13, 2023-24 | MTSU 70 vs LT 67 | LT -8.5 | MTSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
MTSU
13 games played
Straight up
7-6
54% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ EVAN | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 19 | @ MICH | L 61-86 | +27.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs MUR | W 90-87 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs GW | L 79-92 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MCN | L 62-72 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 1 | vs UAB | W 76-61 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 7 | vs BEL | L 62-83 | +3.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 17 | vs KENN | W 68-67 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 29 | @ HOU | L 60-69 | +25.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 2 | vsLT | W 88-51 | -6.5 | W +30.5 | 134.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 4 | vs SHSU | W 68-67 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 8 | @ UTEP | L 80-83 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 137.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 10 | @ NMSU | W 59-55 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+7.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
+2.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+9.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
−3.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−0.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
+16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−17.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−2.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
+16.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+30.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−3.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
−6.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
+7.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+8.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
−12.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+15.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
+12.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−13.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
−16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−8.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−25.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
−9.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+4.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−21.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
+25.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
−30.5
over 5under 8avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisiana Tech
13 games played
Straight up
6-7
46% wins
Against the spread
5-8
38% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-7
46% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ NEV | L 50-77 | +9.5 | L −17.5 | 136.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 15 | vs JKST | W 68-51 | -8.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 19 | @ INST | L 51-60 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 26 | vsINST | W 75-73 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 29 | vs ALCN | W 83-58 | -16.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Dec 3 | @ GASO | L 69-77 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs UL | W 65-44 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 126.5 | U 109 |
| Dec 17 | @ TULN | L 53-61 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 114 |
| Dec 29 | vsUTEP | W 75-63 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 130.5 | O 138 |
| Jan 2 | @MTSU | L 51-88 | +6.5 | L −30.5 | 134.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 4 | @ WKU | L 61-66 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 8 | vs LIB | L 56-72 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 10 | vs DEL | W 70-68 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 123.5 | O 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@NEV
NEVL 50-77
−17.5
15
vsJKST
JKSTW 68-51
+8.5
19
@INST
INSTL 51-60
−5.5
26
vsINST
INSTW 75-73
−0.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 83-58
+8.5
3
@GASO
GASOL 69-77
−6.5
13
vsUL
ULW 65-44
+11.5
17
@TULN
TULNL 53-61
−3.5
29
vsUTEP
UTEPW 75-63
+9.5
2
@MTSU
MTSUL 51-88
−30.5
4
@WKU
WKUL 61-66
+4.5
8
vsLIB
LIBL 56-72
−11.5
10
vsDEL
DELW 70-68
−4.5
covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@NEV
NEVL 50-77
−9.5
15
vsJKST
JKSTW 68-51
−27.5
19
@INST
INSTL 51-60
−36.5
26
vsINST
INSTW 75-73
+6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 83-58
+3.5
3
@GASO
GASOL 69-77
+0.5
13
vsUL
ULW 65-44
−17.5
17
@TULN
TULNL 53-61
−26.5
29
vsUTEP
UTEPW 75-63
+7.5
2
@MTSU
MTSUL 51-88
+4.5
4
@WKU
WKUL 61-66
−18.5
8
vsLIB
LIBL 56-72
−7.5
10
vsDEL
DELW 70-68
+14.5
over 6under 7avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
MTSU
7-6 overall · 4-1 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ New Mexico St59–55
- L@ UTEP80–83
- Wvs Sam Houston68–67
- Wvs Louisiana Tech88–51
- L@ Houston60–69
4 days since their last game.
Louisiana Tech
6-7 overall · 2-3 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Delaware70–68
- Lvs Liberty56–72
- L@ Western KY61–66
- L@ MTSU51–88
- Wvs UTEP75–63
4 days since their last game.