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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

75 games · 2023 · Week 3 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games75100%By halftime11%In Q3912%In Q42432%In OT11%Stayed under4053%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands45%Over cashed1013%Leader lost the game23%
47% went over. Of the 35 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.

All 75 games

2023 · Week 3 · newest first · showing 50
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 3
 ARIZ -18 57 0172741 U ARIZ Q3 10–31
2023 · Week 3
 FRES -4 48 10162629 U FRES Q1 29–0
2023 · Week 3
 KU -28.5 58 7204155 U NEV Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 3
 COLO -23 63 2835355678 OT CSU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 35–43
JKST @ TXST
2023 · Week 3
 TXST -17.5 61.5 277690111 Q2 TXST Q2 34–77
2023 · Week 3
 TEX -30 48.5 10172041 U WYO Q1 10–31
2023 · Week 3
 ORE -37.5 67.5 24375165 U ORE Q3 10–55
2023 · Week 3
 UNM -2.5 52 3273044 U NMSU Q2 27–17
2023 · Week 3
 STAN -7 60.5 10313753 U SAC Q1
Lead lost
 30–23
2023 · Week 3
 CLEM -24.5 51.5 20344162 Q4 CLEM Q2 14–48
2023 · Week 3
 TCU -7.5 64 10334249 U TCU Q3 36–13
2023 · Week 3
 MICH -40.5 53.5 7203737 U BGSU Q1 6–31
2023 · Week 3
 MISS -17 61.5 10133471 Q4 MISS Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 23–48
2023 · Week 3
 ARK -9 48 28456269 Q3 BYU Q1 38–31
2023 · Week 3
 UK -25 48.5 7142438 U UK Q4
Late cover flip
 3–35
2023 · Week 3
 SYR -1 56.5 7283555 U SYR Q1 35–20
2023 · Week 3
 WVU -2.5 48 3132323 U WVU Q3 6–17
2023 · Week 3
 TENN -5 56.5 13333645 U FLA Q1 16–29
SAM @ AUB
2023 · Week 3
 AUB -37.5 62 0174458 U SAM Q1 13–45
2023 · Week 3
 LT -4.5 66.5 10374477 Q4 UNT Q1
Late over
 40–37
MUR @ MTSU
2023 · Week 3
 MTSU -34.5 51 14283549 U MUR Q1 14–35
2023 · Week 3
 NEB -11.5 42.5 10172446 Q4 NEB Q3
Late over
 11–35
2023 · Week 3
 VAN -4.5 56.5 10374777 Q4 UNLV Q2 37–40
2023 · Week 3
 CIN -14.5 44.5 1727374855 Q4 M-OH Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 3
 OKST -7 49.5 10232340 U USA Q1 33–7
TAR @ TTU
2023 · Week 3
 TTU -36.5 75.5 21243444 U TTU Q4 3–41
2023 · Week 3
 UAB -2 60 0243762 Q4 UL Q1
Late over
 41–21
PV @ SMU
2023 · Week 3
 SMU -42.5 63.5 14426369 Q4 SMU Q3 0–69
TXSO @ RICE
2023 · Week 3
 RICE -35.5 60 28495966 Q4 RICE Q3
Late over
 7–59
DUQ @ CCU
2023 · Week 3
 CCU -35 55.5 21457373 Q3 CCU Q2 7–66
STBK @ ARST
2023 · Week 3
 ARST -23 48 17172438 U ARST Q3 7–31
2023 · Week 3
 TROY -2.5 46.5 3202330 U JMU Q1 16–14
2023 · Week 3
 TOL -9 56.5 0173838 U SJSU Q1 17–21
VILL @ UCF
2023 · Week 3
 UCF -27 54.5 17344162 Q4 UCF Q2 14–48
2023 · Week 3
 GAST -5 52 7305966 Q3 GAST Q1 41–25
2023 · Week 3
 WASH -15 57 14354148 U WASH Q2 41–7
UNCO @ WSU
2023 · Week 3
 WSU -48 55 22507185 Q3 UNCO Q1 21–64
NCCU @ UCLA
2023 · Week 3
 UCLA -35.5 60.5 35455966 Q4 UCLA Q2 7–59
2023 · Week 3
 OSU -29.5 65 10525973 Q4 OSU Q2 10–63
2023 · Week 3
 TA&M -36.5 53.5 10304050 U TA&M Q4 3–47
IDHO @ CAL
2023 · Week 3
 CAL -14.5 52.5 10314548 U IDHO Q1 17–31
2023 · Week 3
 TULN -8 47.5 772424 U TULN Q3 21–3
2023 · Week 3
 UGA -26 54 10173138 U SC Q1 14–24
2023 · Week 3
 ALA -34.5 61 361320 U USF Q1 17–3
2023 · Week 3
 ORST -24.5 48.5 3152235 U SDSU Q1 9–26
2023 · Week 3
 OU -28 59.5 28527683 Q3 OU Q3 66–17
2023 · Week 3
 UNC -7 52 7313744 U UNC Q2 13–31
2023 · Week 3
 DUKE -17 48 7243852 Q4 DUKE Q3
Late over
 14–38
2023 · Week 3
 IOWA -28.5 43.5 7244151 Q4 IOWA Q4
Late cover flip
 10–41
2023 · Week 3
 RUTG -6.5 37.5 7243151 Q4 RUTG Q1 16–35
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 75

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 52% 39
Q2 13% 10
Q3 20% 15
Q4 15% 11
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 77% of 69 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 96% and covered 75% of 71 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over10100% 10
1–35100% 5
4–74100% 4
8–10850% 4
11–14875% 6
15–1760% 0
18–21729% 2
22+2715% 4
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.