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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

3,141 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games3,141100%By halftime512%In Q346515%In Q41,05434%In OT361%Stayed under1,53549%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands33611%Over cashed44714%Leader lost the game2468%
51% went over. Of the 1,606 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Went over by halftime: 51 games

2023–2026 · newest first · showing 50
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 7
 TTU -16.5 50.5 28536078 Q2 TTU Q2 25–53
2026 · Week 6
 ARST -3 60.5 216284105 Q2 USA Q1 56–49
2026 · Week 4
 JMU -7 44.5 24475366 Q2 JMU Q1 46–20
SUU @ CSU
2026 · Week 2
 CSU -19.5 57.5 24697282 Q2 CSU Q2 24–58
MERC @ UNM
2026 · Week 2
 UNM -42.5 54.5 14567077 Q2 UNM Q3 7–70
MORG @ ASU
2026 · Week 1
 ASU -43.5 52.5 35567777 Q2 ASU Q3 7–70
NWST @ LT
2026 · Week 1
 LT -44.5 56.5 24668086 Q2 LT Q2 6–80
2025 · Postseason
 DUKE -4 49.5 28526781 Q2 ASU Q3
Lead lost
 39–42
2025 · Week 14
 M-OH -16.5 40.5 31414869 Q2 M-OH Q2 24–45
2025 · Week 14
 IOWA -5.5 38.5 20404956 Q2 IOWA Q2 40–16
MER @ AUB
2025 · Week 13
 AUB -26.5 49.5 28526679 Q2 AUB Q3 17–62
2025 · Week 12
 GASO -3.5 58.5 38627585 Q2 GASO Q1 40–45
2025 · Week 10
 CLEM -4.5 55.5 28567391 Q2 DUKE Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 46–45
2025 · Week 9
 TENN -7.5 54.5 28567690 Q2 TENN Q1 56–34
2025 · Week 8
 JMU -3.5 47.5 34557690 Q2 JMU Q3 27–63
2025 · Week 7
 FRES -5.5 48.5 14495670 Q2 CSU Q1 21–49
2025 · Week 4
 ND -24.5 51.5 21587986 Q2 ND Q3 30–56
2025 · Week 3
 ND -7.5 48.5 21526281 Q2 TA&M Q1 41–40
2025 · Week 3
 CONN -9.5 51.5 2452667685 Q2 DEL Q1
Lead lost
 41–44
UNH @ BALL
2025 · Week 3
 BALL -2.5 46.5 28495863 Q2 BALL Q2 29–34
2025 · Week 3
 MIZ -27.5 46.5 14485562 Q2 MIZ Q2 10–52
2024 · Week 15
 ORE -3.5 51.5 24556282 Q2 ORE Q1 37–45
2024 · Week 14
 CONN -9.5 49.5 28556189 Q2 MASS Q1 47–42
2024 · Week 12
 BAY -1.5 57.5 21636384 Q2 BAY Q1 49–35
2024 · Week 10
 UNM -7.5 60.5 27708094 Q2 WYO Q4
Lead lost
 49–45
2024 · Week 9
 TOL -1.5 47.5 21485767 Q2 BGSU Q1 41–26
2024 · Week 7
 LT -4.5 47.5 34486969 Q2 LT Q1 21–48
2024 · Week 4
 CLEM -17.5 44.5 28527394 Q2 CLEM Q1 35–59
2024 · Week 4
 UNC -11.5 48.5 397498120 Q2 JMU Q1 70–50
2024 · Week 3
 TENN -49.5 61.5 37656871 Q2 TENN Q2 0–71
NWST @ USA
2024 · Week 3
 USA -36.5 60.5 34629097 Q2 USA Q2 10–87
2024 · Week 2
 CLEM -13.5 53.5 35698686 Q2 CLEM Q1 20–66
MRMK @ CONN
2024 · Week 2
 CONN -14.5 44.5 42637080 Q2 CONN Q1 17–63
PRST @ WSU
2024 · Week 1
 WSU -26.5 57.5 296686100 Q2 WSU Q2 30–70
2023 · Week 13
 ECU -3 43.5 27445056 Q2 TLSA Q3
Lead lost
 29–27
2023 · Week 13
 SMU -19.5 46 35667373 Q2 SMU Q1 14–59
2023 · Week 11
 TA&M -16.5 40 24445861 Q2 TA&M Q2 10–51
2023 · Week 11
 WASH -9 49 17526363 Q2 UTAH Q1 28–35
2023 · Week 11
 ILL -4.5 44 1653608493 Q2 IU Q4
Late cover flip
 45–48
2023 · Week 9
 UTSA -17.5 48 31515468 Q2 ECU Q1
Late cover flip
 27–41
2023 · Week 5
 APP -13.5 50.5 28567581 Q2 ULM Q1
Lead lost
 41–40
2023 · Week 5
 OU -19.5 48.5 31606770 Q2 OU Q2 20–50
2023 · Week 5
 TTU -9 52 28637077 Q2 TTU Q3 28–49
2023 · Week 4
 WASH -20.5 55.5 30577191 Q2 WASH Q2 32–59
2023 · Week 4
 JMU -5.5 53.5 17556983 Q2 JMU Q1 45–38
2023 · Week 4
 ISU -3.5 36 14374761 Q2 ISU Q3 27–34
2023 · Week 4
 LOU -14 53.5 14567784 Q2 LOU Q2 28–56
JKST @ TXST
2023 · Week 3
 TXST -17.5 61.5 277690111 Q2 TXST Q2 34–77
IDST @ USU
2023 · Week 2
 USU -24 61 146586106 Q2 USU Q2 28–78
UNH @ CMU
2023 · Week 2
 CMU -7 48.5 14496387 Q2 UNH Q4
Late cover flip
 42–45
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.Show 51

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 1,568
Q2 16% 494
Q3 15% 471
Q4 18% 556
OT 1% 18
Push 1% 34
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 69% of 2,929 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 72% of 2,988 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over516100% 516
1–319295% 182
4–729586% 255
8–1026170% 184
11–1434558% 200
15–1727041% 110
18–2133927% 92
22+9237% 67
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.