When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
874 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 450 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
Stayed under, leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 38 games
2023–2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 5 |
NYJ -2.5 | 38.5 | 10131329 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
12–17 |
2026 · Week 5 |
JAX -7.5 | 41.5 | 7212436 | U | PHI Q1 Lead lost |
17–19 |
2026 · Week 2 |
GB -3.5 | 44.5 | 014213437 | U | NYJ Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2025 · Postseason |
PHI -5.5 | 44.5 | 13232642 | U | SF Q4 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2025 · Week 16 |
CHI -1.5 | 44.5 | 06163238 | U | CHI OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–22 |
2025 · Week 15 |
CAR -2.5 | 41.5 | 7172737 | U | NO Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 15 |
SEA -12.5 | 41.5 | 6192234 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
16–18 |
2025 · Week 12 |
KC -4.5 | 49.5 | 723294043 | U | IND Q1 Lead lost |
20–23 |
2025 · Week 11 |
KC -4.5 | 45.5 | 9122641 | U | DEN Q1 Lead lost |
19–22 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CHI -4.5 | 44.5 | 7172744 | U | NYG Q2 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 6232347 | U | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–27 |
2025 · Week 3 |
LAC -2.5 | 45.5 | 3173043 | U | LAC Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2025 · Week 3 |
GB -7.5 | 40.5 | 031023 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
10–13 |
2024 · Week 18 |
WSH -7.5 | 43.5 | 391942 | U | DAL Q1 Lead lost |
23–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MIN -3.5 | 45.5 | 6153245 | U | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 11 |
SF -6.5 | 48.5 | 10132337 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
20–17 |
2024 · Week 11 |
GB -6.5 | 41.5 | 10173339 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
20–19 |
2024 · Week 5 |
SF -7.5 | 48.5 | 17333647 | U | ARI Q4 Lead lost |
24–23 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 4 |
HOU -5.5 | 46.5 | 17303744 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
20–24 |
2024 · Week 2 |
PHI -5.5 | 46.5 | 0132543 | U | ATL Q1 Lead lost |
22–21 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MIA -3.5 | 49.5 | 7243137 | U | JAX Q1 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Postseason |
SF -10.5 | 50.5 | 3133545 | U | GB Q1 Lead lost |
21–24 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SEA -3 | 47.5 | 3192641 | U | ARI Q3 Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
PHI -5 | 46 | 7132737 | U | SEA Q4 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
CLE -2.5 | 38 | 0142437 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
17–20 |
2023 · Week 15 |
TEN -3 | 38 | 616223235 | U | HOU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
19–16 |
2023 · Week 15 |
ATL -2.5 | 32.5 | 0101016 | U | CAR Q4 Lead lost |
7–9 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MIN -3 | 43 | 06922 | U | CHI Q1 Lead lost |
12–10 |
2023 · Week 11 |
DEN -2.5 | 43 | 3192641 | U | MIN Q2 Lead lost |
20–21 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAR -2 | 46 | 7202333 | U | SEA Q1 Lead lost |
16–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAC -3 | 44 | 3202943 | U | GB Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 9 |
PIT -3 | 36 | 10232936 | P | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
16–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NYJ -3 | 34.5 | 1010172023 | U | Push Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–10 |
2023 · Week 8 |
HOU -3.5 | 43 | 0132528 | U | CAR Q1 Lead lost |
13–15 |
2023 · Week 7 |
DEN -2.5 | 43.5 | 392636 | U | GB Q4 Lead lost |
17–19 |
2023 · Week 6 |
BUF -15.5 | 42.5 | 36623 | U | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
9–14 |
2023 · Week 6 |
PHI -5.5 | 41.5 | 7232634 | U | NYJ Q2 Lead lost |
14–20 |
CLE
NYJ
PHI
JAX
GB
SF
CHI
CAR
NO
IND
SEA
KC
DEN
NYG
LAR
LAC
WSH
DAL
ARI
MIN
MIA
NE
HOU
ATL
TEN
PIT
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 431
Q2 17% 152
Q3 11% 97
Q4 19% 168
OT 2% 15
Push 1% 11
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 816 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 833 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 111 | 100% 111 |
| 1–3 | 44 | 95% 42 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 87% 89 |
| 8–10 | 101 | 64% 65 |
| 11–14 | 117 | 60% 70 |
| 15–17 | 108 | 33% 36 |
| 18–21 | 121 | 19% 23 |
| 22+ | 170 | 8% 14 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.