Kentucky Wildcats at Virginia Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 7:15 PM ETJohn Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia

#19UKKentucky AP #23

#20UVAVirginia AP #9

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kentucky and Virginia
UK	This season	UVA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 80–75 · win probability UVA 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

UK 0, UVA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

UK has played the 5th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UK plays 69.9 a game (123rd fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points

UVASmall

Three-pointers

UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 39.7% and 46.7% of their shots

UVASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UK 26%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: UK 6, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UVASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UK 33.2%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: UK 70.0%, UVA 70.8%

UVASmall

Home court

UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, UK 0-0 away

UVASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UK 53.4 and allows 48.9; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UK 15.4%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: UK 15.5%, UVA 15.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UK 37.4, UVA 32.3. Allowed: UK 36.4, UVA 32.9

Even

UK offense vs UVA defense

Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

Even

UVA offense vs UK defense

Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UVA -4.8	—
Total	—	154.9	—
Projected score	—	UK 75 · UVA 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVA -2.8	—
1H total	72.4	—
1H projected score	UK 34.8 · UVA 37.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LWWWL	18-18	50%	5-5	—
UVA WWWLL	18-18	50%	8-9	—

Venue/role: UK away; UVA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OOUOU	18-18	50%	22-14
UVA OUOOO	16-20	44%	30-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UVA	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs APP	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs BRY	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs LOU	L88–96LO

Virginia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs BCU	W59–41WU
Dec 13	vs WCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kentucky

36 games played

Straight up

22-14

61% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-18

50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1461%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1850%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O U O O U U O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 3	@ALA	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	vsMIZ	L 68-73	-12.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsMSST	W 92-68	-10.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 14	@LSU	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	@TENN	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsTEX	W 85-80	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsMISS	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 27	@VAN	L 55-80	+5.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	@ARK	W 85-77	+6.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsOU	W 94-78	-8.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	vsTENN	W 74-71	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@FLA	L 83-92	+12.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsUGA	L 78-86	-6.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 21	@AUB	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@SC	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsVAN	W 91-77	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@TA&M	L 85-96	+1.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 181
Mar 7	vsFLA	L 77-84	+5.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 11	vsLSU	W 87-82	-8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsMIZ	W 78-72	-2.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsFLA	L 63-71	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 20	vsSCU	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 22	vsISU	L 63-82	+5.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

ALA

L 74-89

−9.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−17.5

MSST

W 92-68

+13.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+8.5

TEX

W 85-80

−2.5

MISS

W 72-63

−2.5

VAN

L 55-80

−19.5

ARK

W 85-77

+14.5

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

W 74-71

+1.5

FLA

L 83-92

+3.5

UGA

L 78-86

−14.5

AUB

L 74-75

+2.5

W 72-63

+1.5

VAN

W 91-77

+12.5

TA&M

L 85-96

−9.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

−3.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+3.5

FLA

L 63-71

+2.5

SCU

W 89-84

+1.5

ISU

L 63-82

−13.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

ALA

L 74-89

−10.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−9.5

MSST

W 92-68

+7.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+12.5

TEX

W 85-80

+12.5

MISS

W 72-63

−10.5

VAN

L 55-80

−20.5

ARK

W 85-77

+2.5

W 94-78

+19.5

TENN

W 74-71

−2.5

FLA

L 83-92

+20.5

UGA

L 78-86

+2.5

AUB

L 74-75

−4.5

W 72-63

−16.5

VAN

W 91-77

+10.5

TA&M

L 85-96

+18.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

+17.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+1.5

FLA

L 63-71

−27.5

SCU

W 89-84

+15.5

ISU

L 63-82

−1.5

over 18under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia

36 games played

Straight up

30-6

83% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-20

44% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

30-683%

W W W W W L W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W L W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W L L L W L L L W L W L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-2044%

U U U O O U O O O O U U O U U U U U O O U U U U U O O U U U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRID	W 87-53	-26.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 7	vsNCCU	W 81-62	-34.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 11	vsHAMP	W 91-53	-24.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsMRSH	W 104-78	-20.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 21	vsNU	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsBTLR	L 73-80	-6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153
Nov 28	vsQUC	W 94-69	-25.5	L −0.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 3	@TEX	W 88-69	+3.5	W +22.5	154.5	O 157
Dec 6	vsDAY	W 86-73	-5.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 9	vsUMES	W 84-60	-36.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 144
Dec 20	vsMD	W 80-72	-16.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 152
Dec 22	vsAMER	W 95-51	-27.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	@VT	L 85-95	-5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 180
Jan 3	@NCSU	W 76-61	+4.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 7	vsCAL	W 84-60	-14.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 10	vsSTAN	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 125
Jan 13	@LOU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 149
Jan 17	@SMU	W 72-68	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsUNC	L 80-85	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 27	@ND	W 100-97	-9.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 197
Jan 31	@BC	W 73-66	-13.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 3	vsPITT	W 67-47	-12.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSYR	W 72-59	-13.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 10	@FSU	W 61-58	-8.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsOSU	W 70-66	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 136
Feb 18	@GT	W 94-68	-13.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	vsMIA	W 86-83	-7.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNCSU	W 90-61	-6.5	W +22.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 28	@DUKE	L 51-77	+9.5	L −16.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 3	vsWAKE	W 75-70	-14.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 145
Mar 7	vsVT	W 76-72	-11.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 148
Mar 12	vsNCSU	W 81-74	-6.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 155
Mar 13	vsMIA	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 14	vsDUKE	L 70-74	+6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 20	vsWRST	W 82-73	-17.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 155
Mar 22	vsTENN	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 87-53

+7.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−15.5

HAMP

W 91-53

+13.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+5.5

W 83-78

+0.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−13.5

QUC

W 94-69

−0.5

TEX

W 88-69

+22.5

DAY

W 86-73

+7.5

UMES

W 84-60

−12.5

W 80-72

−8.5

AMER

W 95-51

+16.5

L 85-95

−15.5

NCSU

W 76-61

+19.5

CAL

W 84-60

+9.5

STAN

W 70-55

+2.5

LOU

W 79-70

+13.5

SMU

W 72-68

+1.5

UNC

L 80-85

−11.5

W 100-97

−6.5

W 73-66

−6.5

PITT

W 67-47

+7.5

SYR

W 72-59

−0.5

FSU

W 61-58

−5.5

OSU

W 70-66

−1.5

W 94-68

+12.5

MIA

W 86-83

−4.5

NCSU

W 90-61

+22.5

DUKE

L 51-77

−16.5

WAKE

W 75-70

−9.5

W 76-72

−7.5

NCSU

W 81-74

+0.5

MIA

W 84-62

+18.5

DUKE

L 70-74

+2.5

WRST

W 82-73

−8.5

TENN

L 72-79

−5.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 87-53

−8.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−8.5

HAMP

W 91-53

−4.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+26.5

W 83-78

+11.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−2.5

QUC

W 94-69

+2.5

TEX

W 88-69

+2.5

DAY

W 86-73

+11.5

UMES

W 84-60

+9.5

W 80-72

−1.5

AMER

W 95-51

−7.5

L 85-95

+26.5

NCSU

W 76-61

−14.5

CAL

W 84-60

−4.5

STAN

W 70-55

−18.5

LOU

W 79-70

−5.5

SMU

W 72-68

−13.5

UNC

L 80-85

+12.5

W 100-97

+51.5

W 73-66

−2.5

PITT

W 67-47

−28.5

SYR

W 72-59

−16.5

FSU

W 61-58

−36.5

OSU

W 70-66

−10.5

W 94-68

+11.5

MIA

W 86-83

+23.5

NCSU

W 90-61

−0.5

DUKE

L 51-77

−15.5

WAKE

W 75-70

−5.5

W 76-72

+2.5

NCSU

W 81-74

+1.5

MIA

W 84-62

−0.5

DUKE

L 70-74

+3.5

WRST

W 82-73

+8.5

TENN

L 72-79

+13.5

over 16under 20avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: Kentucky 2, Virginia 1, even 2

KentuckyBetterVirginia

G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81

Even

G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82

G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96

UKSmall

G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66

G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48

UVASmall

G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73

F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97

UKSmall

G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87

Even

F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95

KentuckyBetterVirginia

UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5

Even

UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6

UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5

Even

UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

UKSmall

Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players

UKBig

Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player

Bench+5.1 · 4 players

UKSmall

Bench+3.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUK betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kentucky

Guards

A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew

Forwards

M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew

Centers

F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min

Virginia

Guards

J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min

Forwards

T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew

Centers

J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UK80.5 #55

UVA80.4 #57

Points per possession

UK1.15 #57

UVA1.19 #21

Pace (possessions)

UK69.9 #123

UVA67.6 #247

Shooting

Effective FG%

UK53.4 #87

UVA54.6 #49

3-point %

UK34.2 #158

UVA36.3 #48

3-point attempt rate

UK39.7 #180

UVA46.7 #36

Free throw rate

UK37.4 #119

UVA32.3 #253

Possessions

Turnover rate

UK15.4 #98

UVA16.0 #141

Offensive rebound rate

UK33.2 #84

UVA37.9 #9

Assists per game

UK15.9 #50

UVA16.3 #41

Defense

Points allowed

UK74.3 #167

UVA68.8 #46

Points allowed per possession

UK1.06 #115

UVA1.02 #39

Opponent effective FG%

UK48.9 #63

UVA45.8 #8

Opponent 3-point %

UK31.8 #55

UVA31.6 #46

Turnovers forced

UK15.5 #248

UVA15.4 #256

Defensive rebound rate

UK70.0 #158

UVA70.8 #120

Steals per game

UK7.0 #123

UVA6.3 #199

Blocks per game

UK4.6 #33

UVA6.4 #1

UK		UVA
Scoring
80.5 #55	Points per game	80.4 #57
1.15 #57	Points per possession	1.19 #21
69.9 #123	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #247
Shooting
53.4 #87	Effective FG%	54.6 #49
34.2 #158	3-point %	36.3 #48
39.7 #180	3-point attempt rate	46.7 #36
37.4 #119	Free throw rate	32.3 #253
Possessions
15.4 #98	Turnover rate	16.0 #141
33.2 #84	Offensive rebound rate	37.9 #9
15.9 #50	Assists per game	16.3 #41
Defense
74.3 #167	Points allowed	68.8 #46
1.06 #115	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #39
48.9 #63	Opponent effective FG%	45.8 #8
31.8 #55	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #46
15.5 #248	Turnovers forced	15.4 #256
70.0 #158	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #120
7.0 #123	Steals per game	6.3 #199
4.6 #33	Blocks per game	6.4 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State63–82
Wvs Santa Clara89–84
Lvs Florida63–71
Wvs Missouri78–72
Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tennessee72–79
Wvs Wright St82–73
Lvs Duke70–74
Wvs Miami84–62
Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky @ Virginia

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Kentucky

Virginia

Kentucky has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kentucky

Virginia