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NCAAB · Fri, Dec 4

UConn vs Illinois

United Center · Neutral site
#6CONNUConn AP #4
vs
#4ILLIllinois AP #3
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CONNThis seasonILL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 76–72 · win probability ILL 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

CONN 1, ILL 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ILLBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CONN 29.9, ILL 33.2. Allowed: CONN 40.7, ILL 19.7
CONNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CONN 16.4%, ILL 13.1%. Forced: CONN 17.8%, ILL 11.6%
ILLSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CONN 35.7%, ILL 39.2%. Defensive: CONN 71.2%, ILL 73.3%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CONN 51%, ILL 63%. Transfers in: CONN 7, ILL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
CONN offense vs ILL defense
Offense 25th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CONN has played the 4th-hardest schedule, ILL the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
CONN hits 34.4% and allows 30.1%; ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 40.9% and 49.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: CONN plays 66.1 a game (307th fastest), ILL 66.5 (292nd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CONN 54.3 and allows 45.7; ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3
Even
ILL offense vs CONN defense
Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelILL -3.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model147.9
Model edge—
Projected score
CONN 72 · ILL 75.9
Win probability
ILL 63%
1st half
Spread
ILL -2.2
Total
69.2
Projected score
CONN 33.5 · ILL 35.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UConn 1, Illinois 1, even 3
UConnBetterIllinois
G N. Machowski TR17.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 80
Even
G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86
G S. Demary10.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.9 ast Score 98
Even
G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95
G S. Ball12.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 87
Even
F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94
G B. Mullins12 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 88
CONNSmall
F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58
G J. Nash TR5.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 26
ILLBig
C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
UConnBetterIllinois
CONN offense25th of 366 · +7.1
Even
ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4
CONN defense2nd of 366 · +11.5
Even
ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7
Backcourt+8.5 · 5 players
CONNSmall
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Bench+3.4 · 5 players
Even
Bench+2.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestCONN betterILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UConn
Guards
N. Machowski35 min · TRS. Demary28 minS. Ball28 minB. Mullins28 minJ. Nash26 min · TRJ. CountyNew
Forwards
N. Khamenia20 min · TRI. Shaw18 min · TRJ. Ross18 minJ. RossNewC. LandrewNewE. AmosovNew
Centers
N. Hines18 min · TRO. Giltay15 min · TRE. Dzafic2 min · TR
Illinois
Guards
S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew
Forwards
D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew
Centers
T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CONNILL
Scoring
76.6 #129Points per game83.2 #24
1.16 #52Points per possession1.25 #1
66.1 #307Pace (possessions)66.5 #292
Shooting
54.3 #59Effective FG%54.7 #46
34.4 #1503-point %34.5 #142
40.9 #1493-point attempt rate49.7 #15
29.9 #313Free throw rate33.2 #232
Possessions
16.4 #163Turnover rate13.1 #9
35.7 #30Offensive rebound rate39.2 #3
18.1 #9Assists per game14.2 #133
Defense
65.2 #6Points allowed68.8 #45
0.99 #17Points allowed per possession1.03 #61
45.7 #7Opponent effective FG%47.3 #26
30.1 #8Opponent 3-point %31.3 #38
17.8 #107Turnovers forced11.6 #365
71.2 #99Defensive rebound rate73.3 #28
6.8 #143Steals per game3.7 #365
5.0 #15Blocks per game4.6 #28
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UConn

34-6 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan63–69
  • Wvs Illinois71–62
  • Wvs Duke73–72
  • Wvs Michigan St67–63
  • Wvs UCLA73–57

A week or more of rest.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn62–71
  • Wvs Iowa71–59
  • Wvs Houston65–55
  • Wvs VCU76–55
  • Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.