MGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
GONZ -3.5✓ MICH covered by 43.5
GONZ -3.5✓ MICH covered by 43.5Closing total165.5Under by 3.5
| GONZ | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | Record | 6-0 |
| 6-1 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 3-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GONZ 80–82 MICH · ✓ MICH (59%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZ | 29 | 32 | 61 |
| MICH | 53 | 48 | 101 |
1st half: GONZ 29, MICH 53 (MICH by 24). The model had MICH by 1.4 and a total of 75.8 (actual 82).
Team stats
| GONZ | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-74 34% | Field goals | 36-60 60% |
| 3-22 14% | 3-pointers | 13-27 48% |
| 8-15 53% | Free throws | 16-25 64% |
| 38 12 off | Rebounds | 44 5 off |
| 17 | Assists | 29 |
| 9 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 8 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| GONZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyon Grant-Foster G | 27 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6-13 | 1-3 |
| Braden Huff F | 25 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 7-17 | 0-3 |
| Mario Saint-Supery G | 24 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2-9 | 1-3 |
| Adam Miller G | 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Graham Ike F | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-9 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Emmanuel Innocenti G | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Braeden Smith G | 17 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Jalen Warley G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Steele Venters G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Ismaila Diagne C | 9 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Davis Fogle G | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Joaquim ArauzMoore, Cade Orness, Noah Haaland, Alonzo Metz, Parker Jefferson
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 27 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6-9 | 2-5 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 24 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 23 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 21 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 4-5 | 4-4 |
| Aday Mara C | 21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 21 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 6-9 | 3-5 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| L.J. Cason G | 15 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Will Tschetter F | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Winters Grady G | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Malick Kordel C | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Oscar Goodman F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Charlie May G | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Howard Eisley Jr., Harrison Hochberg, Ricky Liburd
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketGONZ -3.5
ModelMICH -2.6
Model edgeMICH +6.2
W MICH covered
Total
Market165.5
Model161.9
Model edgeUnder 3.6
W Under
Projected score
GONZ 79.6 · MICH 82.3
GONZ 61 · MICH 101
Win probability
MICH 59%
1st half
Spread
MICH -1.4
MICH -24.0
Total
75.8
82 points
Projected score
GONZ 37.2 · MICH 38.6
GONZ 29 · MICH 53
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGONZ -2.5
1 → GONZ
CloseGONZ -3.5
1 pt toward GONZ
Total
Open163.5
▲ 2
Close165.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
GONZ -162 · MICH +136
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GONZ -2.5 · closed GONZ -3.5 · moved 1 toward GONZmodel MICH -2.5
model MICH -2.5
Opened 163.5 · closed 165.5 · moved 2 upmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZlast 7 | 7-0 100% | 6-1 86% | 3-4 43% |
| MICHlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Gonzaga
7 games played
Straight up
7-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +15.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TXSO | W 98-43 | -29.5 | W +25.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 8 | vs OU | W 83-68 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs CREI | W 90-63 | -12.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 14 | @ ASU | W 77-65 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 17 | vs SUU | W 122-50 | -35.5 | W +36.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 24 | vs ALA | W 95-85 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs MD | W 100-61 | -14.5 | W +24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
+25.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
+4.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
+14.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−1.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+36.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+5.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+24.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
−16.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
−15.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
−11.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−16.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+11.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+1.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+3.5
over 3under 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +9.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
OAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vs
WAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@
TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vs
MTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vs
SDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vs
AUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
over 3under 3avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Gonzaga
7-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Maryland100–61
- Wvs Alabama95–85
- Wvs Southern Utah122–50
- W@ Arizona St77–65
- Wvs Creighton90–63
1 day since their last game.
Michigan
6-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Auburn102–72
- Wvs San Diego St94–54
- Wvs MTSU86–61
- W@ TCU67–63
- Wvs Wake Forest85–84
1 day since their last game.