University Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's · Conference game
Closing line
SMC -11.5✓ SMC covered by 13.5
SMC -11.5✓ SMC covered by 13.5Closing total142.5Under by 9.5
 SF | This season | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| 13-11 | Record | 19-4 |
| 11-13 | ATS | 13-10 |
| 12-12 | O/U | 11-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SF 65–76 SMC · ✓ SMC (83%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 29 | 25 | 54 |
| SMC | 40 | 39 | 79 |
1st half: SF 29, SMC 40 (SMC by 11). The model had SMC by 6.3 and a total of 66.1 (actual 69).
Team stats
| SF | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-57 28% | Field goals | 32-67 48% |
| 7-30 23% | 3-pointers | 9-20 45% |
| 15-16 94% | Free throws | 6-8 75% |
| 29 6 off | Rebounds | 47 12 off |
| 12 | Assists | 24 |
| 2 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 14 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| SF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Beasley G | 33 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| Junjie Wang F | 28 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| David Fuchs F | 27 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Tyrone Riley IV G | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Legend Smiley G | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Guillermo Diaz-Graham F | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Mookie Cook F | 22 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-3 |
| Vukasin Masic G | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Weilun Zhao G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Saba Gigiberia C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Braccia G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Veniamin Abosi, Ndewedo Newbury, Sean Blakely Drummond, Isa Silva
| SMC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dent G | 38 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Paulius Murauskas F | 36 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 9-18 | 2-6 |
| Dillan Shaw G | 36 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Mikey Lewis G | 27 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 5-11 | 4-6 |
| Harry Wessels C | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andrew McKeever C | 24 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 6-13 | 0-0 |
| Liam Campbell G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Juzenas G | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Rory Hawke G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tony Duckett G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Oliver Faubert F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kevin Gad, Cade Bennett, Jazz Gardner, Trent MacLean
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSMC -11.5
ModelSMC -10.9
Model edgeSF +0.6
L SMC covered
Total
Market142.5
Model141.1
Model edgeUnder 1.4
W Under
Projected score
SF 65.1 · SMC 76
SF 54 · SMC 79
Win probability
SMC 83%
1st half
Spread
SMC -6.3
SMC -11.0
Total
66.1
69 points
Projected score
SF 29.9 · SMC 36.2
SF 29 · SMC 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSMC -11.5
no move
CloseSMC -11.5
No change since the open
Total
Open142.5
no move
Close142.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
SF +575 · SMC -850
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SMC -11.5 · unchangedmodel SMC -11
model SMC -11
Opened 142.5 · unchangedmodel 141
model 141
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| SMC | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
SF 1–8 SMCSMC leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · SF 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | SMC 82 @ SF 68 | SF +5.5 | SMC W |
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | SMC 64 @ SF 65 | SF +4.5 | SF W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | SF 51 @ SMC 71 | SMC -10.5 | SMC W |
| Feb 20, 2023-24 | SF 66 @ SMC 70 | SMC -7.5 | SF W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | SMC 77 @ SF 60 | SF -0.5 | SMC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
San Francisco
24 games played
Straight up
13-11
54% wins
Against the spread
11-13
46% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-12
50% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ MEM | L 70-76 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 12 | vs PRST | W 80-70 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 15 | vs BRAD | W 75-64 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs NWST | W 84-64 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs MINN | W 77-65 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs COLO | L 69-79 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs NEV | L 65-81 | -5.5 | L −21.5 | 142.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 3 | vs UNA | L 63-65 | -16.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 7 | vs MSST | W 65-62 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | @ SLU | L 75-85 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 17 | vs LUC | W 85-71 | -11.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vs MORG | W 94-64 | -25.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 28 | @ SEA | W 67-59 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ ORST | L 62-70 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 2 | vs USD | W 74-64 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 4 | vs PORT | W 73-68 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 8 | @ LMU | L 82-84 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 10 | @ PEPP | W 80-60 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 13 | vsSMC | L 68-82 | +5.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 18 | vs WSU | W 85-80 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | @ GONZ | L 66-68 | +15.5 | W +13.5 | 149.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 28 | @ SCU | L 73-88 | +9.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 31 | vs PAC | W 87-82 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 138.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 4 | vsLMU | L 75-84 | -8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@MEM
MEML 70-76
−3.5
12
vsPRST
PRSTW 80-70
−3.5
15
vsBRAD
BRADW 75-64
+1.5
18
vsNWST
NWSTW 84-64
+3.5
22
vsMINN
MINNW 77-65
+13.5
27
vsCOLO
COLOL 69-79
−11.5
28
vsNEV
NEVL 65-81
−21.5
3
vsUNA
UNAL 63-65
−18.5
7
vsMSST
MSSTW 65-62
+7.5
13
@SLU
SLUL 75-85
+2.5
17
vsLUC
LUCW 85-71
+2.5
21
vsMORG
MORGW 94-64
+4.5
28
@SEA
SEAW 67-59
+10.5
30
@ORST
ORSTL 62-70
−12.5
2
vsUSD
USDW 74-64
−2.5
4
vsPORT
PORTW 73-68
−6.5
8
@LMU
LMUL 82-84
−0.5
10
@PEPP
PEPPW 80-60
+12.5
13
vsSMC
SMCL 68-82
−8.5
18
vsWSU
WSUW 85-80
−0.5
24
@GONZ
GONZL 66-68
+13.5
28
@SCU
SCUL 73-88
−5.5
31
vsPAC
PACW 87-82
+0.5
4
vsLMU
LMUL 75-84
−17.5
covered 11didn’t cover 13avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@MEM
MEML 70-76
−11.5
12
vsPRST
PRSTW 80-70
−4.5
15
vsBRAD
BRADW 75-64
−7.5
18
vsNWST
NWSTW 84-64
+4.5
22
vsMINN
MINNW 77-65
+1.5
27
vsCOLO
COLOL 69-79
−2.5
28
vsNEV
NEVL 65-81
+3.5
3
vsUNA
UNAL 63-65
−17.5
7
vsMSST
MSSTW 65-62
−23.5
13
@SLU
SLUL 75-85
+4.5
17
vsLUC
LUCW 85-71
+12.5
21
vsMORG
MORGW 94-64
+12.5
28
@SEA
SEAW 67-59
−20.5
30
@ORST
ORSTL 62-70
−12.5
2
vsUSD
USDW 74-64
−14.5
4
vsPORT
PORTW 73-68
−6.5
8
@LMU
LMUL 82-84
+24.5
10
@PEPP
PEPPW 80-60
−0.5
13
vsSMC
SMCL 68-82
+8.5
18
vsWSU
WSUW 85-80
+18.5
24
@GONZ
GONZL 66-68
−15.5
28
@SCU
SCUL 73-88
+10.5
31
vsPAC
PACW 87-82
+30.5
4
vsLMU
LMUL 75-84
+13.5
over 12under 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Saint Mary's
23 games played
Straight up
19-4
83% wins
Against the spread
13-10
57% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-12
48% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs STMN | W 84-58 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 7 | vs UTC | W 87-66 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 11 | vs OHIO | W 90-60 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 14 | vs UNT | W 80-49 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 128.5 | O 129 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARST | W 85-72 | -20.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 26 | vs WICH | W 70-65 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 27 | vs VT | W 77-66 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 28 | vs VAN | L 71-96 | +4.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 7 | @ DAV | W 70-61 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 14 | vs BOIS | L 67-68 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 19 | vs FAU | W 88-75 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs UNI | W 63-58 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 132.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 28 | @LMU | W 78-73 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 30 | @PEPP | W 72-45 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 2 | vsPORT | W 78-57 | -18.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 4 | vsSEA | W 93-76 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsWSU | W 88-82 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 143.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 13 | @SF | W 82-68 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @SCU | L 54-62 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 116 |
| Jan 21 | vsORST | W 81-51 | -19.5 | W +10.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 24 | @PORT | W 75-69 | -14.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 31 | @GONZ | L 65-73 | +8.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | vsUSD | W 87-60 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+12.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+5.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+16.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
−7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
+5.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
−20.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
+0.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−3.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
−0.5
22
vsUNI
UNIW 63-58
−6.5
28
@LMU
LMUW 78-73
−4.5
30
@PEPP
PEPPW 72-45
+7.5
2
vsPORT
PORTW 78-57
+2.5
4
vsSEA
SEAW 93-76
+5.5
10
vsWSU
WSUW 88-82
−9.5
13
@SF
SFW 82-68
+8.5
17
@SCU
SCUL 54-62
−6.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 81-51
+10.5
24
@PORT
PORTW 75-69
−8.5
31
@GONZ
GONZL 65-73
+0.5
4
vsUSD
USDW 87-60
+6.5
covered 13didn’t cover 10avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+0.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+7.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+5.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+0.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
+7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
−1.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
+17.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
−6.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−4.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
+17.5
22
vsUNI
UNIW 63-58
−11.5
28
@LMU
LMUW 78-73
+7.5
30
@PEPP
PEPPW 72-45
−24.5
2
vsPORT
PORTW 78-57
−11.5
4
vsSEA
SEAW 93-76
+29.5
10
vsWSU
WSUW 88-82
+26.5
13
@SF
SFW 82-68
+8.5
17
@SCU
SCUL 54-62
−36.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 81-51
−10.5
24
@PORT
PORTW 75-69
−0.5
31
@GONZ
GONZL 65-73
−6.5
4
vsUSD
USDW 87-60
−1.5
over 11under 12avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
San Francisco
13-11 overall · 6-6 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs LMU75–84
- Wvs Pacific87–82
- L@ Santa Clara73–88
- L@ Gonzaga66–68
- Wvs Washington St85–80
3 days since their last game.
Saint Mary's
19-4 overall · 9-2 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs San Diego87–60
- L@ Gonzaga65–73
- W@ Portland75–69
- Wvs Oregon St81–51
- L@ Santa Clara54–62
3 days since their last game.