Patrick Gymnasium · at Vermont
Closing line
UVM -6.5✓ UVM covered by 0.5
UVM -6.5✓ UVM covered by 0.5Closing total136.5Under by 11.5
 MRMK | This season | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | Record | 4-5 |
| 6-6 | ATS | 4-5 |
| 4-8 | O/U | 7-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MRMK 67–74 UVM · ✓ UVM (73%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 21 | 38 | 59 |
| UVM | 30 | 36 | 66 |
1st half: MRMK 21, UVM 30 (UVM by 9). The model had UVM by 4.1 and a total of 66.2 (actual 51).
Team stats
| MRMK | UVM | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-51 39% | Field goals | 21-50 42% |
| 6-22 27% | 3-pointers | 4-22 18% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 20-24 83% |
| 28 9 off | Rebounds | 34 10 off |
| 8 | Assists | 9 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| MRMK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Shelton G | 38 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4-12 | 3-10 |
| Kevair Kennedy G | 36 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 7-14 | 0-0 |
| Tye Dorset G | 29 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-12 | 1-6 |
| Andrés Marrero G | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Todd Brogna F | 22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| KC Ugwuakazi F | 23 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Veillette F | 12 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jaylen Stinson G | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brendan Johnson G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Moore, Aliou Cisse, Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro, Brandon Legris, Malik Edmead
| UVM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Long G | 35 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4-11 | 1-7 |
| Sean Blake G | 33 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 6-7 | 0-1 |
| Noah Barnett F | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| TJ Hurley G | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Gus Yalden F | 16 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Johnson G | 26 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Momo Nkugwa G | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| David Simon F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Lucas Mari G | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Ben Wesson, Benjamin Michaels, Sincere Clemons, Drew Bessette, Chris Kuzemka, Trey Woodyard, Jackson Skipper
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVM -6.5
ModelUVM -7.1
Model edgeUVM +0.6
W UVM covered
Total
Market136.5
Model141.2
Model edgeOver 4.7
L Under
Projected score
MRMK 67.1 · UVM 74.2
MRMK 59 · UVM 66
Win probability
UVM 73%
1st half
Spread
UVM -4.1
UVM -9.0
Total
66.2
51 points
Projected score
MRMK 31 · UVM 35.2
MRMK 21 · UVM 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVM -5.5
1 → UVM
CloseUVM -6.5
1 pt toward UVM
Total
Open136.5
no move
Close136.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MRMK +225 · UVM -278
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVM -5.5 · closed UVM -6.5 · moved 1 toward UVMmodel UVM -7
model UVM -7
Opened 136.5 · unchangedmodel 141
model 141
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| UVMlast 9 | 4-5 44% | 4-5 44% | 7-2 78% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MRMK 1–2 UVMUVM leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MRMK 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024-25 | UVM 51 @ MRMK 65 | MRMK +7.5 | MRMK W |
| Nov 6, 2023-24 | MRMK 55 @ UVM 67 | UVM -15.5 | MRMK W |
| Dec 4, 2022-23 | UVM 66 @ MRMK 43 | MRMK +6.5 | UVM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Merrimack
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-8
33% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SDST | L 66-75 | +6.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 6 | @ AUB | L 57-95 | +23.5 | L −14.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 11 | @ TAR | L 62-76 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ BU | W 91-79 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 135.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ME | W 72-65 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Nov 21 | @ FLA | L 45-80 | +36.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 28 | @ PENN | L 65-77 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs HOF | L 58-78 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 30 | vs LAS | W 66-60 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 132.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 4 | vs RID | W 68-66 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 7 | vs FAIR | W 74-63 | -3.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 10 | @ PRIN | W 59-56 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | U 115 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 66-75
−2.5
6
@AUB
AUBL 57-95
−14.5
11
@TAR
TARL 62-76
−9.5
15
@BU
BUW 91-79
+14.5
19
vsME
MEW 72-65
+0.5
21
@FLA
FLAL 45-80
+1.5
28
@PENN
PENNL 65-77
−9.5
29
vsHOF
HOFL 58-78
−14.5
30
vsLAS
LASW 66-60
+8.5
4
vsRID
RIDW 68-66
−7.5
7
vsFAIR
FAIRW 74-63
+7.5
10
@PRIN
PRINW 59-56
+5.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 66-75
−2.5
6
@AUB
AUBL 57-95
+3.5
11
@TAR
TARL 62-76
−4.5
15
@BU
BUW 91-79
+34.5
19
vsME
MEW 72-65
+6.5
21
@FLA
FLAL 45-80
−33.5
28
@PENN
PENNL 65-77
−10.5
29
vsHOF
HOFL 58-78
+0.5
30
vsLAS
LASW 66-60
−6.5
4
vsRID
RIDW 68-66
−4.5
7
vsFAIR
FAIRW 74-63
−7.5
10
@PRIN
PRINW 59-56
−19.5
over 4under 8avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Vermont
9 games played
Straight up
4-5
44% wins
Against the spread
4-5
44% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-2
78% overs · avg +12.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ BRWN | W 89-84 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 131.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 15 | @ NE | W 85-74 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 134.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 18 | @ BUF | L 90-94 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs LIB | L 73-79 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs URI | L 65-80 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 26 | vsPRIN | W 79-74 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 30 | vs YALE | L 74-77 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ORST | L 58-80 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | @ PEPP | W 65-56 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 121 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
−0.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+12.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
−5.5
24
vsLIB
LIBL 73-79
+2.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
−10.5
26
vsPRIN
PRINW 79-74
−0.5
30
vsYALE
YALEL 74-77
+3.5
3
@ORST
ORSTL 58-80
−18.5
6
@PEPP
PEPPW 65-56
+7.5
covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
+41.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+24.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
+42.5
24
vsLIB
LIBL 73-79
+10.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
+0.5
26
vsPRIN
PRINW 79-74
+12.5
30
vsYALE
YALEL 74-77
+3.5
3
@ORST
ORSTL 58-80
−5.5
6
@PEPP
PEPPW 65-56
−21.5
over 7under 2avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Merrimack
6-6 overall · 2-0 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Princeton59–56
- Wvs Fairfield74–63
- Wvs Rider68–66
- Wvs La Salle66–60
- Lvs Hofstra58–78
4 days since their last game.
Vermont
4-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Pepperdine65–56
- L@ Oregon St58–80
- Lvs Yale74–77
- Wvs Princeton79–74
- Lvs Rhode Island65–80
A week or more of rest.