Cadence Bank Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
MSST -4.5✓ SF covered by 7.5
MSST -4.5✓ SF covered by 7.5Closing total150.5Under by 23.5
 SF | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 4-4 |
| 3-5 | ATS | 1-7 |
| 3-5 | O/U | 5-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SF 75–80 MSST · ✗ MSST (67%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 30 | 35 | 65 |
| MSST | 22 | 40 | 62 |
1st half: SF 30, MSST 22 (SF by 8). The model had MSST by 3.0 and a total of 72.3 (actual 52).
Team stats
| SF | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-61 43% | Field goals | 26-67 39% |
| 7-29 24% | 3-pointers | 8-28 29% |
| 6-10 60% | Free throws | 2-8 25% |
| 43 11 off | Rebounds | 40 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 8 |
| 3 | Steals | 5 |
| 6 | Blocks | 2 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| SF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Beasley G | 36 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| Tyrone Riley IV G | 34 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 7-9 | 2-2 |
| Mookie Cook F | 30 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 3-10 | 0-3 |
| Vukasin Masic G | 28 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Guillermo Diaz-Graham F | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Junjie Wang F | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-4 |
| Legend Smiley G | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Saba Gigiberia C | 11 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Veniamin Abosi F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Weilun Zhao, Sean Blakely Drummond, David Fuchs, Aidan Braccia, Ndewedo Newbury, Isa Silva
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 36 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-4 |
| Jayden Epps G | 34 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 8-16 | 5-10 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 20 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Brandon Walker F | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Josh Hubbard G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 32 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-2 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 20 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Achor Achor F | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Amier Ali F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: King Grace, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSST -4.5
ModelMSST -5.2
Model edgeMSST +0.7
L SF covered
Total
Market150.5
Model154.4
Model edgeOver 3.9
L Under
Projected score
SF 74.6 · MSST 79.8
SF 65 · MSST 62
Win probability
MSST 67%
1st half
Spread
MSST -3.0
SF -8.0
Total
72.3
52 points
Projected score
SF 34.7 · MSST 37.6
SF 30 · MSST 22
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -5.5
1 → SF
CloseMSST -4.5
1 pt toward SF
Total
Open146.5
▲ 4
Close150.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
SF +160 · MSST -192
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -5.5 · closed MSST -4.5 · moved 1 toward SFmodel MSST -5
model MSST -5
Opened 146.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 4 upmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFlast 8 | 4-4 50% | 3-5 38% | 3-5 38% |
| MSSTlast 8 | 4-4 50% | 1-7 13% | 5-3 63% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
San Francisco
8 games played
Straight up
4-4
50% wins
Against the spread
3-5
38% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ MEM | L 70-76 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 12 | vs PRST | W 80-70 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 15 | vs BRAD | W 75-64 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs NWST | W 84-64 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs MINN | W 77-65 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs COLO | L 69-79 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs NEV | L 65-81 | -5.5 | L −21.5 | 142.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 3 | vs UNA | L 63-65 | -16.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@MEM
MEML 70-76
−3.5
12
vsPRST
PRSTW 80-70
−3.5
15
vsBRAD
BRADW 75-64
+1.5
18
vsNWST
NWSTW 84-64
+3.5
22
vsMINN
MINNW 77-65
+13.5
27
vsCOLO
COLOL 69-79
−11.5
28
vsNEV
NEVL 65-81
−21.5
3
vsUNA
UNAL 63-65
−18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@MEM
MEML 70-76
−11.5
12
vsPRST
PRSTW 80-70
−4.5
15
vsBRAD
BRADW 75-64
−7.5
18
vsNWST
NWSTW 84-64
+4.5
22
vsMINN
MINNW 77-65
+1.5
27
vsCOLO
COLOL 69-79
−2.5
28
vsNEV
NEVL 65-81
+3.5
3
vsUNA
UNAL 63-65
−17.5
over 3under 5avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
8 games played
Straight up
4-4
50% wins
Against the spread
1-7
13% covers · avg −10.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-3
63% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vsUNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
covered 1didn’t cover 7avg −10.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
over 5under 3avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
San Francisco
4-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs North Alabama63–65
- Lvs Nevada65–81
- Lvs Colorado69–79
- Wvs Minnesota77–65
- Wvs N'Western St84–64
4 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
4-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Georgia Tech85–73
- Lvs SMU81–87
- Wvs LSU N Orleans81–78
- Lvs New Mexico78–80
- Lvs Kansas St77–98
4 days since their last game.