Capital One Arena · at Georgetown
Closing line
GTWN -19.5✓ UMBC covered by 10.5
GTWN -19.5✓ UMBC covered by 10.5Closing total149.5Over by 21.5
 UMBC | This season | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-3 | ATS | 2-5 |
| 1-4 | O/U | 5-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UMBC 66–84 GTWN · ✓ GTWN (95%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 37 | 44 | 81 |
| GTWN | 45 | 45 | 90 |
1st half: UMBC 37, GTWN 45 (GTWN by 8). The model had GTWN by 11.1 and a total of 70.3 (actual 82).
Team stats
| UMBC | GTWN | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-62 48% | Field goals | 36-64 56% |
| 8-23 35% | 3-pointers | 11-23 48% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 7-10 70% |
| 32 10 off | Rebounds | 30 7 off |
| 12 | Assists | 25 |
| 3 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| UMBC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jah'Likai King G | 32 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 8-15 | 2-6 |
| DJ Armstrong Jr. G | 32 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4-12 | 2-7 |
| Ace Valentine G | 31 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Josh Odunowo F | 24 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Riley Jacobs F | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Daylon Dickerson F | 23 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Caden Diggs F | 21 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5-8 | 2-3 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn F | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Cougar Downing G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tim Eze, Jake Stout, Regimantas Ciunys, Devin Ceaser, Paul Greene, Saahil Thakkar
| GTWN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams F | 33 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8-16 | 2-6 |
| Julius Halaifonua C | 33 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Malik Mack G | 31 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6-10 | 3-5 |
| KJ Lewis G | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 7-14 | 2-4 |
| Isaiah Abraham F | 18 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jeremiah Williams G | 25 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Langston Love G | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Jayden Fort F | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kayvaun Mulready G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hashem Asadallah, Mason Moses, Vince Iwuchukwu, Michael Van Raaphorst, Seal Diouf, Austin Montgomery, DeShawn Harris-Smith
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketGTWN -19.5
ModelGTWN -18.7
Model edgeUMBC +0.8
W UMBC covered
Total
Market149.5
Model150.1
Model edgeOver 0.6
W Over
Projected score
UMBC 65.7 · GTWN 84.4
UMBC 81 · GTWN 90
Win probability
GTWN 95%
1st half
Spread
GTWN -11.1
GTWN -8.0
Total
70.3
82 points
Projected score
UMBC 29.6 · GTWN 40.7
UMBC 37 · GTWN 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGTWN -16.5
3 → GTWN
CloseGTWN -19.5
3 pts toward GTWN
Total
Open148.5
▲ 1
Close149.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UMBC +1600 · GTWN -4000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GTWN -16.5 · closed GTWN -19.5 · moved 3 toward GTWNmodel GTWN -18.5
model GTWN -18.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 1 upmodel 150
model 150
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBClast 5 | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% | 1-4 20% |
| GTWNlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 2-5 29% | 5-2 71% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UMBC 0–3 GTWNGTWN leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · GTWN has won the last 3 meetings · UMBC 1-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2024-25 | UMBC 62 @ GTWN 86 | GTWN -16.5 | GTWN W |
| Nov 26, 2022-23 | UMBC 70 @ GTWN 79 | GTWN -10.5 | UMBC W |
| Dec 8, 2021-22 | UMBC 71 @ GTWN 100 | GTWN -6.5 | GTWN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UMBC
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −7.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
DAY
DAYL 71-77
+19.5
11
@
MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vs
WAG
WAGW 71-70
−5.5
19
@
GW
GWL 52-89
−14.5
29
vs
DSU
DSUW 71-57
+0.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
−6.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
+0.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−19.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
−10.5
over 1under 4avg −7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Georgetown
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
2-5
29% covers · avg −3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMORG
MORGW 87-70
−10.5
7
@
MD
MDW 70-60
+14.5
12
vs
BING
BINGW 83-70
−14.5
15
vs
CLEM
CLEMW 79-74
+6.5
22
vsWAG
WAGW 92-75
−8.5
27
vsDAY
DAYL 79-84
−3.5
28
vs
MIA
MIAL 65-78
−7.5
covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMORG
MORGW 87-70
+2.5
7
@MD
MDW 70-60
−14.5
12
vsBING
BINGW 83-70
+11.5
15
vsCLEM
CLEMW 79-74
+10.5
22
vsWAG
WAGW 92-75
+26.5
27
vsDAY
DAYL 79-84
+17.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 65-78
−8.5
over 5under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UMBC
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Delaware St71–57
- L@ G Washington52–89
- Wvs Wagner71–70
- W@ Morgan St81–79
- L@ Dayton71–77
4 days since their last game.
Georgetown
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami65–78
- Lvs Dayton79–84
- Wvs Wagner92–75
- Wvs Clemson79–74
- Wvs Binghamton83–70
5 days since their last game.