Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
Closing line
UNC -10.5✓ UNC covered by 9.5
UNC -10.5✓ UNC covered by 9.5Closing total149.5Under by 7.5
 GTWN | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 7-1 |
| 2-6 | ATS | 5-3 |
| 6-2 | O/U | 3-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GTWN 71–83 UNC · ✓ UNC (85%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTWN | 39 | 22 | 61 |
| UNC | 44 | 37 | 81 |
1st half: GTWN 39, UNC 44 (UNC by 5). The model had UNC by 7.0 and a total of 71.9 (actual 83).
Team stats
| GTWN | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-72 33% | Field goals | 29-60 48% |
| 4-23 17% | 3-pointers | 9-28 32% |
| 9-12 75% | Free throws | 14-21 67% |
| 36 11 off | Rebounds | 45 7 off |
| 9 | Assists | 15 |
| 6 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| GTWN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Halaifonua C | 33 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Caleb Williams F | 30 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Malik Mack G | 29 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 3-17 | 1-7 |
| KJ Lewis G | 28 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 7-15 | 1-5 |
| Isaiah Abraham F | 18 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jeremiah Williams G | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-1 |
| Langston Love G | 17 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Jayden Fort F | 15 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Kayvaun Mulready G | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Seal Diouf C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Michael Van Raaphorst, Mason Moses, Austin Montgomery, Hashem Asadallah, DeShawn Harris-Smith, Vince Iwuchukwu
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Veesaar C | 37 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 6-11 | 2-3 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 35 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 7-12 | 0-1 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 31 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-5 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 31 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Kyan Evans G | 20 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derek Dixon G | 27 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 14 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-5 |
| Zayden High F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jaydon Young G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: John Holbrook, Evan Smith, Ivan Matlekovic, Isaiah Denis, Seth Trimble, James Brown, Elijah Davis
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNC -10.5
ModelUNC -11.9
Model edgeUNC +1.4
W UNC covered
Total
Market149.5
Model153.6
Model edgeOver 4.1
L Under
Projected score
GTWN 70.8 · UNC 82.7
GTWN 61 · UNC 81
Win probability
UNC 85%
1st half
Spread
UNC -7.0
UNC -5.0
Total
71.9
83 points
Projected score
GTWN 32.4 · UNC 39.5
GTWN 39 · UNC 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -11.5
1 → GTWN
CloseUNC -10.5
1 pt toward GTWN
Total
Open150.5
▼ 1
Close149.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
GTWN +500 · UNC -700
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -11.5 · closed UNC -10.5 · moved 1 toward GTWNmodel UNC -12
model UNC -12
Opened 150.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 1 downmodel 153.5
model 153.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTWNlast 8 | 6-2 75% | 2-6 25% | 6-2 75% |
| UNClast 8 | 7-1 88% | 5-3 63% | 3-5 38% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Georgetown
8 games played
Straight up
6-2
75% wins
Against the spread
2-6
25% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-2
75% overs · avg +8.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MORG | W 87-70 | -27.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | @ MD | W 70-60 | +4.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs BING | W 83-70 | -27.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 15 | vs CLEM | W 79-74 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 22 | vs WAG | W 92-75 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 27 | vs DAY | L 79-84 | +1.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs MIA | L 65-78 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 3 | vs UMBC | W 90-81 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMORG
MORGW 87-70
−10.5
7
@MD
MDW 70-60
+14.5
12
vsBING
BINGW 83-70
−14.5
15
vsCLEM
CLEMW 79-74
+6.5
22
vsWAG
WAGW 92-75
−8.5
27
vsDAY
DAYL 79-84
−3.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 65-78
−7.5
3
vsUMBC
UMBCW 90-81
−10.5
covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMORG
MORGW 87-70
+2.5
7
@MD
MDW 70-60
−14.5
12
vsBING
BINGW 83-70
+11.5
15
vsCLEM
CLEMW 79-74
+10.5
22
vsWAG
WAGW 92-75
+26.5
27
vsDAY
DAYL 79-84
+17.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 65-78
−8.5
3
vsUMBC
UMBCW 90-81
+21.5
over 6under 2avg +8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
8 games played
Straight up
7-1
88% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −11.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
over 3under 5avg −11.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Georgetown
6-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UMBC90–81
- Lvs Miami65–78
- Lvs Dayton79–84
- Wvs Wagner92–75
- Wvs Clemson79–74
4 days since their last game.
North Carolina
7-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Kentucky67–64
- Lvs Michigan St58–74
- Wvs St Bonaventure85–70
- Wvs Navy73–61
- Wvs NC Central97–53
5 days since their last game.