Hornet Pavilion · at Sacramento St · Conference game
Closing line
SAC -1.5✓ SAC covered by 12.5
SAC -1.5✓ SAC covered by 12.5Closing total153.5Under by 1.5
 NAU | This season | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-11 | Record | 1-11 |
| 8-6 | ATS | 4-8 |
| 5-9 | O/U | 7-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NAU 74–76 SAC · ✓ SAC (57%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 39 | 30 | 69 |
| SAC | 34 | 49 | 83 |
1st half: NAU 39, SAC 34 (NAU by 5). The model had SAC by 1.2 and a total of 70.0 (actual 73).
Team stats
| NAU | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-58 45% | Field goals | 27-59 46% |
| 7-22 32% | 3-pointers | 11-23 48% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 18-20 90% |
| 35 11 off | Rebounds | 32 9 off |
| 16 | Assists | 17 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| NAU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Abelman G | 35 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2-10 | 1-3 |
| Brennan Peterson G | 32 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Chris Komin G | 30 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Traivar Jackson F | 28 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 8-11 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Shaw F | 25 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Karl Poom F | 24 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Arne Osojnik F | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Kavon Bradford G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Erez Poran G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Oakland Fort G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Diego Campisano F | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Zack Davidson, Walker Timme, JT Amundsen
| SAC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prophet Johnson G | 38 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 11-19 | 3-6 |
| Jahni Summers G | 32 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-9 | 2-5 |
| Taj Glover G | 28 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Shaqir O'Neal F | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Brandon Gardner F | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Arman Madi G | 27 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Mark Lavrenov F | 24 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Teat G | 18 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 4-5 |
| Romari Robinson G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Davis Ambuehl, Bear Cherry, Jeremiah Nyarko, Zach Anderson, Isaiah Bronson, Mikey Williams
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSAC -1.5
ModelSAC -2.2
Model edgeSAC +0.7
W SAC covered
Total
Market153.5
Model149.4
Model edgeUnder 4.1
W Under
Projected score
NAU 73.6 · SAC 75.8
NAU 69 · SAC 83
Win probability
SAC 57%
1st half
Spread
SAC -1.2
NAU -5.0
Total
70.0
73 points
Projected score
NAU 34.4 · SAC 35.6
NAU 39 · SAC 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSAC -2.5
1 → NAU
CloseSAC -1.5
1 pt toward NAU
Total
Open152.5
▲ 1
Close153.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NAU +110 · SAC -130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SAC -2.5 · closed SAC -1.5 · moved 1 toward NAUmodel SAC -2
model SAC -2
Opened 152.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 1 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| SAC | 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
NAU 7–1 SACNAU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · NAU has won the last 5 meetings · NAU 8-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | NAU 65 @ SAC 61 | SAC +3.5 | NAU W |
| Jan 16, 2024-25 | SAC 53 @ NAU 77 | NAU -8.5 | NAU W |
| Feb 15, 2023-24 | NAU 73 @ SAC 58 | SAC -3.5 | NAU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | SAC 61 @ NAU 70 | NAU -2.5 | NAU W |
| Feb 9, 2022-23 | SAC 55 @ NAU 77 | NAU +1.5 | NAU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Arizona
14 games played
Straight up
3-11
21% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs DRKE | L 71-77 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARIZ | L 49-84 | +35.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 24 | vs CP | W 93-87 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 26 | vs SEMO | W 79-72 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs SDST | L 62-75 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | @ NDSU | L 68-69 | +12.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ ASU | L 48-73 | +16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | @ USD | L 69-78 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 18 | vs SUU | W 65-57 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 21 | @ UIW | L 66-90 | +6.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 1 | @ MONT | L 64-78 | +5.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 3 | @ MTST | L 68-77 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 8 | vs WEB | L 65-78 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 10 | vs IDST | L 79-81 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 139.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsDRKE
DRKEL 71-77
+2.5
11
@ARIZ
ARIZL 49-84
+0.5
24
vsCP
CPW 93-87
+7.5
26
vsSEMO
SEMOW 79-72
+4.5
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 62-75
−10.5
6
@NDSU
NDSUL 68-69
+11.5
9
@ASU
ASUL 48-73
−8.5
13
@USD
USDL 69-78
−4.5
18
vsSUU
SUUW 65-57
+2.5
21
@UIW
UIWL 66-90
−17.5
1
@MONT
MONTL 64-78
−8.5
3
@MTST
MTSTL 68-77
+1.5
8
vsWEB
WEBL 65-78
−10.5
10
vsIDST
IDSTL 79-81
+2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsDRKE
DRKEL 71-77
+3.5
11
@ARIZ
ARIZL 49-84
−30.5
24
vsCP
CPW 93-87
+15.5
26
vsSEMO
SEMOW 79-72
−2.5
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 62-75
−11.5
6
@NDSU
NDSUL 68-69
−10.5
9
@ASU
ASUL 48-73
−33.5
13
@USD
USDL 69-78
−2.5
18
vsSUU
SUUW 65-57
−28.5
21
@UIW
UIWL 66-90
+15.5
1
@MONT
MONTL 64-78
−7.5
3
@MTST
MTSTL 68-77
+1.5
8
vsWEB
WEBL 65-78
−6.5
10
vsIDST
IDSTL 79-81
+20.5
over 5under 9avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Sacramento St
12 games played
Straight up
1-11
8% wins
Against the spread
4-8
33% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | vs UCSB | L 87-92 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 14 | @ UCD | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | vs PRES | W 64-62 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | @ UCLA | L 48-79 | +27.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | @ CAL | L 67-91 | +21.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 29 | @ PAC | L 54-68 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | @ BAY | L 88-110 | +29.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 20 | @ CBU | L 67-74 | +14.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | @ CSUN | L 88-100 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 188 |
| Jan 1 | @IDST | L 84-97 | +8.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 3 | @WEB | L 82-95 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 168.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @ PRST | L 69-96 | +9.5 | L −17.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
11
vsUCSB
UCSBL 87-92
+2.5
14
@UCD
UCDL 73-77
+0.5
16
vsPRES
PRESW 64-62
−4.5
18
@UCLA
UCLAL 48-79
−3.5
21
@CAL
CALL 67-91
−2.5
29
@PAC
PACL 54-68
−3.5
2
@BAY
BAYL 88-110
+7.5
20
@CBU
CBUL 67-74
+7.5
22
@CSUN
CSUNL 88-100
−3.5
1
@IDST
IDSTL 84-97
−4.5
3
@WEB
WEBL 82-95
−6.5
10
@PRST
PRSTL 69-96
−17.5
covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
11
vsUCSB
UCSBL 87-92
+17.5
14
@UCD
UCDL 73-77
−1.5
16
vsPRES
PRESW 64-62
−24.5
18
@UCLA
UCLAL 48-79
−19.5
21
@CAL
CALL 67-91
+3.5
29
@PAC
PACL 54-68
−24.5
2
@BAY
BAYL 88-110
+39.5
20
@CBU
CBUL 67-74
−17.5
22
@CSUN
CSUNL 88-100
+23.5
1
@IDST
IDSTL 84-97
+27.5
3
@WEB
WEBL 82-95
+8.5
10
@PRST
PRSTL 69-96
+4.5
over 7under 5avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Arizona
3-11 overall · 0-4 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Idaho St79–81
- Lvs Weber St65–78
- L@ Montana St68–77
- L@ Montana64–78
- L@ Incarnate Word66–90
5 days since their last game.
Sacramento St
1-11 overall · 0-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Portland St69–96
- L@ Weber St82–95
- L@ Idaho St84–97
- L@ CSU Northridge88–100
- L@ CA Baptist67–74
5 days since their last game.