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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

South Florida @ George Mason

EagleBank Arena · at George Mason
#84USFSouth Florida
@
#93GMUGeorge Mason
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USFThis seasonGMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 76–76 · win probability GMU 52%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

USF 1, GMU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: USF plays 74.4 a game (9th fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points
USFBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USF 15.1%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: USF 19.1%, GMU 15.5%
GMUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USF 40.4, GMU 41.1. Allowed: USF 39.0, GMU 28.9
GMUSmall
Three-pointers
USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 43.8% and 35.2% of their shots
GMUSmall
Home court
GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, USF 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: USF 50.6 and allows 48.8; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5
Context
Schedule so far
USF has played the 89th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USF 14%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: USF 10, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USF 38.1%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: USF 68.1%, GMU 71.7%
Even
GMU offense vs USF defense
Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
Even
USF offense vs GMU defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GMU -0.5—
Total—152.1—
Projected score—USF 75.8 · GMU 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGMU -0.2—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreUSF 35.4 · GMU 35.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: South Florida 1, George Mason 1, even 3
South FloridaBetterGeorge Mason
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
Even
G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
Even
G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
USFBig
G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
Even
F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
GMUSmall
F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
South FloridaBetterGeorge Mason
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Even
GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
Even
GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
USFSmall
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
GMUBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
USFSmall
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSF betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
George Mason
Guards
B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min
Forwards
E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew
Centers
J. Nnaji8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USFGMU
Scoring
86.8 #6Points per game72.9 #227
1.17 #42Points per possession1.13 #93
74.4 #9Pace (possessions)64.7 #351
Shooting
50.6 #209Effective FG%52.7 #113
32.5 #2553-point %33.3 #214
43.8 #933-point attempt rate35.2 #270
40.4 #55Free throw rate41.1 #44
Possessions
15.1 #73Turnover rate15.8 #121
38.1 #7Offensive rebound rate31.3 #149
16.8 #28Assists per game12.6 #243
Defense
76.5 #230Points allowed68.0 #31
1.03 #54Points allowed per possession1.05 #89
48.8 #58Opponent effective FG%49.5 #83
34.5 #218Opponent 3-point %32.6 #91
19.1 #42Turnovers forced15.5 #254
68.1 #252Defensive rebound rate71.7 #79
9.0 #8Steals per game5.0 #334
4.0 #72Blocks per game3.0 #228
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Liberty71–77
  • Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
  • Wvs Saint Louis86–57
  • L@ VCU65–70
  • Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.