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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Detroit Mercy @ Michigan St

Breslin Center · at Michigan St
#277DETMDetroit Mercy
@
#10MSUMichigan St AP #6
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETMThis seasonMSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 93–57 · win probability MSU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

DETM 0, MSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSUBig
MSU offense vs DETM defense
Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings
MSUBig
DETM offense vs MSU defense
Offense 236th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DETM has played the 208th-hardest schedule, MSU the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DETM 49.5 and allows 52.2; MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9
MSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: DETM 32.6, MSU 35.9. Allowed: DETM 37.6, MSU 30.2
MSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DETM 33.3%, MSU 37.8%. Defensive: DETM 69.2%, MSU 77.6%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: DETM plays 69.7 a game (132nd fastest), MSU 67.3 (264th). Faster games mean more points
MSUSmall
Home court
MSU at home. This season: MSU 0-0 at home, DETM 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
DETM hits 35.1% and allows 33.3%; MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 30.7% and 36.4% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DETM 49%, MSU 63%. Transfers in: DETM 0, MSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DETM 16.0%, MSU 17.1%. Forced: DETM 14.4%, MSU 14.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMSU -36.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model149.3
Model edge—
Projected score
DETM 56.6 · MSU 92.7
Win probability
MSU 100%
1st half
Spread
MSU -21.4
Total
69.8
Projected score
DETM 24.2 · MSU 45.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Michigan St has the better starters

Position by position: Detroit Mercy 0, Michigan St 3, even 2
Detroit MercyBetterMichigan St
G T. Spratt10.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 54
MSUBig
G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99
G A. Carter11.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63
G L. Stone6.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9
MSUBig
F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
F L. Maiden6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28
MSUSmall
F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53
C X. Istomin-Monroe1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80
Detroit MercyBetterMichigan St
DETM offense236th of 366 · -7.2
MSUBig
MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3
DETM defense309th of 366 · -8.1
MSUBig
MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
MSUBig
Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players
MSUBig
Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
MSUSmall
Bench+0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestDETM betterMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Detroit Mercy
Guards
T. Spratt25 minA. Carter21 minL. Stone21 minJ. Cotton7 minJ. BriggsNewE. PalssonNew
Forwards
L. Maiden16 minD. FavorNewV. SemerychNewC. HouserNewT. OwensNew
Centers
X. Istomin-Monroe8 min
Michigan St
Guards
J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew
Forwards
C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min
Centers
A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETMMSU
Scoring
76.3 #135Points per game78.8 #84
1.09 #153Points per possession1.17 #40
69.7 #132Pace (possessions)67.3 #264
Shooting
49.5 #267Effective FG%53.8 #72
35.1 #1083-point %36.3 #47
30.7 #3433-point attempt rate36.4 #241
32.6 #247Free throw rate35.9 #157
Possessions
16.0 #138Turnover rate17.1 #217
33.3 #81Offensive rebound rate37.8 #10
13.1 #208Assists per game18.6 #4
Defense
78.7 #285Points allowed68.3 #37
1.13 #290Points allowed per possession1.02 #40
52.2 #223Opponent effective FG%48.9 #61
33.3 #140Opponent 3-point %33.0 #119
14.4 #324Turnovers forced14.9 #296
69.2 #193Defensive rebound rate77.6 #1
5.8 #264Steals per game5.1 #328
3.3 #182Blocks per game4.1 #59
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Detroit Mercy

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St63–66
  • Wvs Robert Morris70–64
  • Wvs Milwaukee84–63
  • W@ Oakland95–89
  • L@ Robert Morris62–73

A week or more of rest.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn63–67
  • Wvs Louisville77–69
  • Wvs N Dakota St92–67
  • Lvs UCLA84–88
  • L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.