The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss · at Ole Miss
#360ALCNAlcorn St
@
#46MISSOle Miss
LineMISS -30.5no move
Total146.5no move
Season records: Alcorn St and Ole Miss
ALCNThis seasonMISS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MISS 90–57 · win probability MISS 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MISS -30.5
no move since the open
Total
146.5
model 147.0 · Over by 0.5
Model edge
MISS by 3
model vs market
Public on the spread
82% ALCN
63% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MISS has more of the edges

ALCN 0, MISS 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MISSBig
ALCN offense vs MISS defense
Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 37th, on the model’s ratings
MISSBig
MISS offense vs ALCN defense
Offense 50th of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, MISS the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MISSBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; MISS 50.5 and allows 50.5
MISSBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, MISS 14.0%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, MISS 16.5%
MISSSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, MISS 28.3%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, MISS 67.4%
MISSSmall
Home court
MISS at home. This season: MISS 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, MISS 32%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, MISS 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; MISS hits 33.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 33.7% and 35.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), MISS 69.5 (145th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, MISS 33.0. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, MISS 41.2

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5354774%49%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
ALCN +5000 · MISS -100000
Line movement
Median of 5 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened MISS -30.5 · now MISS -29.5 · moved 1 toward ALCNmodel MISS -33.5
Opened 146.5 · now 145.5 · moved 1 downmodel 147
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
ALCN +30.5SpreadMISS -30.5
Bets
Money
Money is 19 pts ahead of bets on MISS -30.5
Over 146.5TotalUnder 146.5
Bets
Money

Books

5 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
ALCNMISSOverUnderALCNMISS
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-29.5-105+29.5-115145.5-120145.5+100——
BetRiversBetRivers-31.5-105+31.5-121146.5-109146.5-117——
BovadaBovada-29.5-105+29.5-115145.5-120145.5+100——
DraftKingsDK-30.5-105+30.5-115146.5-108146.5-112+5000-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-29.5-101+29.5-111145.5-119145.5+102——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadMISS -30.5MISS -33.3MISS +2.8
Total146.5147.0Over 0.5
Projected score—ALCN 56.9 · MISS 90.1

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadMISS -19.7—
1H total68.8—
1H projected scoreALCN 24.6 · MISS 44.2—

Ole Miss has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Ole Miss 2, even 3
Alcorn StBetterOle Miss
G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Stephenson TR18.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. Kamardine11.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 78
G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. Clark TR12.7 pts · 3 reb · 4.9 ast Score 88
F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4
MISSBig
F D. Haskins TR11.1 pts · 6.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45
MISSSmall
F R. Siulepa TR10 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
Alcorn StBetterOle Miss
ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5
MISSBig
MISS defense37th of 366 · +3.0
ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9
MISSBig
MISS offense50th of 366 · +3.6
Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players
MISSBig
Backcourt+6.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
MISSBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
MISSSmall
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestALCN betterMISS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alcorn St
Guards
T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew
Forwards
M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew
Centers
C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew
Ole Miss
Guards
C. Stephenson33 min · TRI. Kamardine31 minA. Clark31 min · TRP. Pinkins25 minZ. Day8 minB. HenshallNew
Forwards
D. Haskins28 min · TRR. Siulepa27 min · TRS. Trouet26 min · TRC. Brown13 min · TRD. PattonNew
Centers
M. Handlogten15 min · TRS. Cicic13 min · TR
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALCNMISS
Scoring
66.9 #335Points per game75.9 #145
0.96 #352Points per possession1.09 #157
69.7 #138Pace (possessions)69.5 #145
Shooting
47.7 #320Effective FG%50.5 #217
33.3 #2093-point %33.2 #221
33.7 #3033-point attempt rate35.5 #258
31.8 #259Free throw rate33.0 #238
Possessions
19.6 #340Turnover rate14.0 #23
26.9 #297Offensive rebound rate28.3 #253
11.1 #333Assists per game13.5 #178
Defense
80.2 #322Points allowed76.1 #219
1.15 #324Points allowed per possession1.10 #215
55.0 #330Opponent effective FG%50.5 #127
33.0 #120Opponent 3-point %33.5 #151
18.1 #92Turnovers forced16.5 #190
64.5 #347Defensive rebound rate67.4 #285
7.7 #63Steals per game7.1 #118
3.4 #162Blocks per game4.3 #48

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View56–65
  • Wvs Alabama St77–65
  • Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
  • Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
  • L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Ole Miss

15-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas90–93
  • Wvs Alabama80–79
  • Wvs Georgia76–72
  • Wvs Texas76–66
  • Lvs South Carolina61–64

A week or more of rest.