KeyBank Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
MSU -16.5✓ MSU covered by 8.5
MSU -16.5✓ MSU covered by 8.5Closing total144.5Over by 14.5
 NDSU | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 24-7 | Record | 25-7 |
| 18-13 | ATS | 16-16 |
| 14-17 | O/U | 15-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NDSU 63–82 MSU · ✓ MSU (95%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 25 | 42 | 67 |
| MSU | 45 | 47 | 92 |
1st half: NDSU 25, MSU 45 (MSU by 20). The model had MSU by 11.0 and a total of 68.0 (actual 70).
Team stats
| NDSU | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-57 44% | Field goals | 33-56 59% |
| 6-25 24% | 3-pointers | 10-20 50% |
| 11-17 65% | Free throws | 16-18 89% |
| 23 4 off | Rebounds | 35 4 off |
| 13 | Assists | 26 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 6 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| NDSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Stefonowicz G | 35 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-4 |
| Trevian Carson G | 34 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 5-11 | 1-4 |
| Damari Wheeler-Thomas G | 30 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| Treyson Anderson F | 19 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| Markhi Strickland G | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Noah Feddersen C | 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Tay Smith G | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Emil Skytt G | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Riley Massey G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Riley Saunders G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Max Majerle G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Carson Smith G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Caleb Schoenrock F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dom Clay
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 32 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Carson Cooper C | 30 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Coen Carr F | 28 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 6-8 | 1-2 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 26 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 4-9 | 3-6 |
| Jordan Scott F | 24 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kur Teng G | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Cam Ward F | 16 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Colin Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nick Sanders G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Divine Ugochukwu, Kaleb Glenn
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSU -16.5
ModelMSU -18.7
Model edgeMSU +2.2
W MSU covered
Total
Market144.5
Model145.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
NDSU 63.3 · MSU 82
NDSU 67 · MSU 92
Win probability
MSU 95%
1st half
Spread
MSU -11.0
MSU -20.0
Total
68.0
70 points
Projected score
NDSU 28.5 · MSU 39.5
NDSU 25 · MSU 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -14.5
2 → MSU
CloseMSU -16.5
2 pts toward MSU
Total
Open143.5
▲ 1
Close144.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NDSU +950 · MSU -1650
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -14.5 · closed MSU -16.5 · moved 2 toward MSUmodel MSU -18.5
model MSU -18.5
Opened 143.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 1 upmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| MSU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Dakota St
31 games played
Straight up
24-7
77% wins
Against the spread
18-13
58% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-17
45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ ORST | L 65-67 | +9.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 5 | @ UCD | L 68-80 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 11 | vs CSUN | W 90-68 | -4.5 | W +17.5 | 156.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 17 | vs SIU | W 92-85 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs JXST | W 56-43 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | U 99 |
| Nov 28 | @ ARST | L 80-85 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | @ MONT | W 81-72 | +3.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 6 | vs NAU | W 69-68 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 11 | @ CSUB | W 80-69 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ DRKE | W 99-94 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 21 | vs UCI | L 73-74 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 22 | @ UTEP | L 66-76 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 139.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 31 | vs SDAK | W 84-61 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs ORU | W 79-77 | -13.5 | L −11.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 8 | @ KC | W 97-73 | -9.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 10 | @ OMA | W 78-76 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 14 | vs SDST | W 76-65 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | vs STMN | W 68-65 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 22 | @ DEN | W 82-77 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 24 | @ORU | W 86-58 | -10.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 31 | @SDAK | W 89-84 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 5 | vsDEN | L 71-78 | -12.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 7 | vsOMA | W 92-84 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 14 | @ UND | W 83-66 | -5.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 18 | @SDST | W 74-66 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 21 | vsKC | W 95-59 | -19.5 | W +16.5 | 148.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 26 | @STMN | L 62-84 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 28 | vsUND | W 96-63 | -11.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Mar 5 | vsORU | W 76-65 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 7 | vsOMA | W 74-50 | -8.5 | W +15.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Mar 8 | vsUND | W 70-62 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@ORST
ORSTL 65-67
+7.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 68-80
−10.5
11
vsCSUN
CSUNW 90-68
+17.5
17
vsSIU
SIUW 92-85
+5.5
26
vsJXST
JXSTW 56-43
+9.5
28
@ARST
ARSTL 80-85
−1.5
3
@MONT
MONTW 81-72
+12.5
6
vsNAU
NAUW 69-68
−11.5
11
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-69
+3.5
13
@DRKE
DRKEW 99-94
+10.5
21
vsUCI
UCIL 73-74
−2.5
22
@UTEP
UTEPL 66-76
−12.5
31
vsSDAK
SDAKW 84-61
+11.5
3
vsORU
ORUW 79-77
−11.5
8
@KC
KCW 97-73
+14.5
10
@OMA
OMAW 78-76
−3.5
14
vsSDST
SDSTW 76-65
+5.5
17
vsSTMN
STMNW 68-65
+0.5
22
@DEN
DENW 82-77
+0.5
24
@ORU
ORUW 86-58
+17.5
31
@SDAK
SDAKW 89-84
−3.5
5
vsDEN
DENL 71-78
−19.5
7
vsOMA
OMAW 92-84
−1.5
14
@UND
UNDW 83-66
+11.5
18
@SDST
SDSTW 74-66
+6.5
21
vsKC
KCW 95-59
+16.5
26
@STMN
STMNL 62-84
−18.5
28
vsUND
UNDW 96-63
+21.5
5
vsORU
ORUW 76-65
−1.5
7
vsOMA
OMAW 74-50
+15.5
8
vsUND
UNDW 70-62
−3.5
covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@ORST
ORSTL 65-67
−12.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 68-80
+5.5
11
vsCSUN
CSUNW 90-68
+1.5
17
vsSIU
SIUW 92-85
+23.5
26
vsJXST
JXSTW 56-43
−43.5
28
@ARST
ARSTL 80-85
+4.5
3
@MONT
MONTW 81-72
−0.5
6
vsNAU
NAUW 69-68
−10.5
11
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-69
−0.5
13
@DRKE
DRKEW 99-94
+47.5
21
vsUCI
UCIL 73-74
+0.5
22
@UTEP
UTEPL 66-76
+2.5
31
vsSDAK
SDAKW 84-61
−19.5
3
vsORU
ORUW 79-77
+9.5
8
@KC
KCW 97-73
+25.5
10
@OMA
OMAW 78-76
+6.5
14
vsSDST
SDSTW 76-65
−10.5
17
vsSTMN
STMNW 68-65
−18.5
22
@DEN
DENW 82-77
−1.5
24
@ORU
ORUW 86-58
−7.5
31
@SDAK
SDAKW 89-84
+18.5
5
vsDEN
DENL 71-78
−7.5
7
vsOMA
OMAW 92-84
+29.5
14
@UND
UNDW 83-66
−0.5
18
@SDST
SDSTW 74-66
−6.5
21
vsKC
KCW 95-59
+5.5
26
@STMN
STMNL 62-84
−9.5
28
vsUND
UNDW 96-63
+6.5
5
vsORU
ORUW 76-65
−6.5
7
vsOMA
OMAW 74-50
−22.5
8
vsUND
UNDW 70-62
−15.5
over 14under 17avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
32 games played
Straight up
25-7
78% wins
Against the spread
16-16
50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-17
47% overs · avg +1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @ PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vs OAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @ NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vs USC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vs IU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @ WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vs MD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @ RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 30 | vs MICH | L 71-83 | +2.5 | L −9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 4 | @ MINN | L 73-76 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 7 | vs ILL | W 85-82 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 13 | @ WIS | L 71-92 | -1.5 | L −22.5 | 149.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 17 | vs UCLA | W 82-59 | -8.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 22 | vs OSU | W 66-60 | -10.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 26 | @ PUR | W 76-74 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 1 | @IU | W 77-64 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 5 | vsRUTG | W 91-87 | -20.5 | L −16.5 | 141.5 | O 178 |
| Mar 8 | @MICH | L 80-90 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Mar 13 | vsUCLA | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
−9.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
−11.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+1.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
−22.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+14.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−4.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+7.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
+10.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
−16.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+0.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAL 84-88
−9.5
covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
30
vsMICH
MICHL 71-83
+4.5
4
@MINN
MINNL 73-76
+12.5
7
vsILL
ILLW 85-82
+24.5
13
@WIS
WISL 71-92
+13.5
17
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-59
+1.5
22
vsOSU
OSUW 66-60
−20.5
26
@PUR
PURW 76-74
+6.5
1
@IU
IUW 77-64
−3.5
5
vsRUTG
RUTGW 91-87
+36.5
8
@MICH
MICHL 80-90
+17.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAL 84-88
+30.5
over 15under 17avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Dakota St
24-7 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Dakota70–62
- Wvs Omaha74–50
- Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
- Wvs North Dakota96–63
- L@ St Thomas62–84
A week or more of rest.
Michigan St
25-7 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UCLA84–88
- L@ Michigan80–90
- Wvs Rutgers91–87
- W@ Indiana77–64
- W@ Purdue76–74
6 days since their last game.