Worthington Arena · at Montana St
Closing line
MTST -2.5✓ MTST covered by 5.5
MTST -2.5✓ MTST covered by 5.5Closing total147.5Over by 8.5
 STMN | This season | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 1-5 |
| 3-5 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 4-4 | O/U | 4-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: STMN 73–76 MTST · ✓ MTST (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STMN | 37 | 37 | 74 |
| MTST | 40 | 42 | 82 |
1st half: STMN 37, MTST 40 (MTST by 3). The model had MTST by 1.9 and a total of 69.6 (actual 77).
Team stats
| STMN | MTST | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-52 52% | Field goals | 24-56 43% |
| 9-30 30% | 3-pointers | 12-32 38% |
| 11-16 69% | Free throws | 22-29 76% |
| 33 5 off | Rebounds | 32 10 off |
| 15 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| STMN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Janowski G | 36 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 8-15 | 4-9 |
| Carter Bjerke F | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Ben Oosterbaan F | 30 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-5 |
| Nolan Minessale G | 28 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 5-9 | 0-3 |
| Austin Herro G | 24 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jermaine Coleman F | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Ryan Dufault G | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Hayden Tibbits G | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kyle Counts F | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Tim Franks G | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Ryan Lafferty G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Johnson-Arigu, Jack Tauer, Luka Momcilovic, Tommy Humphries Jr., Adam Tauer
| MTST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Miller G | 37 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 5-9 | 4-8 |
| Patrick McMahon G | 34 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 7-17 | 0-3 |
| Jeremiah Davis G | 29 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Davian Brown G | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3-9 | 3-7 |
| Chris Hodges F | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Seth Amunrud G | 23 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 6-11 | 4-8 |
| Waka Mbatch F | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Steppe F | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Howie Keene G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: James Steward, Christian King, Cavin Holden, CJ Purdie, Grayson Gaddis, Calum Rutherfurd
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMTST -2.5
ModelMTST -3.4
Model edgeMTST +0.9
W MTST covered
Total
Market147.5
Model148.7
Model edgeOver 1.2
W Over
Projected score
STMN 72.6 · MTST 76
STMN 74 · MTST 82
Win probability
MTST 62%
1st half
Spread
MTST -1.9
MTST -3.0
Total
69.6
77 points
Projected score
STMN 33.9 · MTST 35.8
STMN 37 · MTST 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTST -2.5
no move
CloseMTST -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open147.5
no move
Close147.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
STMN +114 · MTST -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTST -2.5 · unchangedmodel MTST -3.5
model MTST -3.5
Opened 147.5 · unchangedmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STMNlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 3-5 38% | 4-4 50% |
| MTSTlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 5-1 83% | 4-2 67% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
STMN 0–2 MTSTMTST leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MTST has won the last 2 meetings · STMN 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2022-23 | STMN 65 @ MTST 82 | MTST -7.5 | MTST W |
| Dec 11, 2021-22 | MTST 72 @ STMN 65 | STMN +6.5 | MTST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
St Thomas
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
3-5
38% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ SMC | L 58-84 | +13.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARMY | W 83-76 | -18.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 10 | @ WSU | L 71-81 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 13 | vs GB | W 80-61 | -13.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | @ SEMO | W 84-72 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNCO | W 73-72 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs CSUF | L 80-88 | -11.5 | L −19.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 23 | @ PORT | W 76-66 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@SMC
SMCL 58-84
−12.5
8
vsARMY
ARMYW 83-76
−11.5
10
@WSU
WSUL 71-81
−7.5
13
vsGB
GBW 80-61
+5.5
15
@SEMO
SEMOW 84-72
+9.5
21
vsUNCO
UNCOW 73-72
−3.5
22
vsCSUF
CSUFL 80-88
−19.5
23
@PORT
PORTW 76-66
+4.5
covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@SMC
SMCL 58-84
+0.5
8
vsARMY
ARMYW 83-76
+7.5
10
@WSU
WSUL 71-81
−5.5
13
vsGB
GBW 80-61
−9.5
15
@SEMO
SEMOW 84-72
+3.5
21
vsUNCO
UNCOW 73-72
−12.5
22
vsCSUF
CSUFL 80-88
+5.5
23
@PORT
PORTW 76-66
−13.5
over 4under 4avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Montana St
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
COLO
COLOL 78-84
+5.5
9
vs
DEN
DENL 73-75
−9.5
12
@
STAN
STANL 68-77
+5.5
15
@
BOIS
BOISL 58-62
+12.5
21
@
LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+2.5
29
@
USU
USUL 81-84
+14.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+13.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
+1.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
−3.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
−27.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+9.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+16.5
over 4under 2avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
St Thomas
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Portland76–66
- Lvs Fullerton80–88
- Wvs N Colorado73–72
- W@ SE Missouri84–72
- Wvs Green Bay80–61
A week or more of rest.
Montana St
1-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Utah State81–84
- W@ Long Beach St78–72
- L@ Boise St58–62
- L@ Stanford68–77
- Lvs Denver73–75
4 days since their last game.