When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
284 games · 2024 · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 154 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
Went over in Q3: 34 games
2024 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
PHI -6.5 | 47.5 | 17425778 | Q3 | PHI Q1 | 23–55 |
2024 · Postseason |
DET -8.5 | 55.5 | 10525976 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 45–31 |
2024 · Week 18 |
SEA -7.5 | 38.5 | 10304055 | Q3 | LAR Q4 Lead lost |
30–25 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ARI -4.5 | 42.5 | 6375071 | Q3 | ARI Q4 | 24–47 |
2024 · Week 18 |
ATL -7.5 | 48.5 | 641557682 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 17 |
DET -3.5 | 50.5 | 13345974 | Q3 | DET Q4 | 40–34 |
2024 · Week 17 |
IND -7.5 | 40.5 | 10344878 | Q3 | NYG Q1 | 33–45 |
2024 · Week 17 |
PHI -7.5 | 37.5 | 14314148 | Q3 | PHI Q2 | 7–41 |
2024 · Week 17 |
TB -9.5 | 47.5 | 17415562 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 14–48 |
2024 · Week 16 |
DET -6.5 | 47.5 | 13415151 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 34–17 |
2024 · Week 16 |
IND -4.5 | 43.5 | 7315368 | Q3 | IND Q2 | 30–38 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 14344361 | Q3 | LAC Q4 | 27–34 |
2024 · Week 15 |
DET -2.5 | 55.5 | 14355690 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 48–42 |
2024 · Week 15 |
LAC -3 | 45.5 | 14304757 | Q3 | TB Q3 | 40–17 |
2024 · Week 14 |
BUF -3.5 | 50.5 | 14385986 | Q3 | LAR Q1 | 42–44 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 41.5 | 14385673 | Q3 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
32–41 |
2024 · Week 12 |
KC -11.5 | 42.5 | 13294357 | Q3 | CAR Q1 | 30–27 |
2024 · Week 12 |
HOU -7.5 | 40.5 | 17374759 | Q3 | TEN Q1 | 32–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
DET -14.5 | 47.5 | 10344858 | Q3 | DET Q2 | 6–52 |
2024 · Week 10 |
WSH -1.5 | 45.5 | 14314855 | Q3 | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BAL -8.5 | 46.5 | 7344851 | Q3 | BAL Q2 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 8 |
ATL -0.5 | 47.5 | 14414857 | Q3 | ATL Q2 | 31–26 |
2024 · Week 6 |
ATL -6.5 | 45.5 | 14394858 | Q3 | ATL Q3 | 38–20 |
2024 · Week 6 |
HOU -6.5 | 39.5 | 14214162 | Q3 | HOU Q1 | 41–21 |
2024 · Week 5 |
CHI -3.5 | 39.5 | 14344046 | Q3 | CHI Q2 | 10–36 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ATL -2.5 | 43.5 | 1741476066 | Q3 | ATL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–36 |
2024 · Week 4 |
DET -4.5 | 47.5 | 7285571 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 29–42 |
2024 · Week 4 |
PHI -0.5 | 43.5 | 14314649 | Q3 | TB Q1 | 16–33 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CIN -5.5 | 47.5 | 7355258 | Q3 | CIN Q1 | 34–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
CIN -7.5 | 46.5 | 14344871 | Q3 | WSH Q1 | 38–33 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BUF -4.5 | 46.5 | 13374757 | Q3 | BUF Q1 | 10–47 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TEN -2.5 | 36.5 | 24274144 | Q3 | GB Q1 | 30–14 |
2024 · Week 1 |
NO -3.5 | 41.5 | 17334757 | Q3 | NO Q1 | 10–47 |
2024 · Week 1 |
PHI -1.5 | 49.5 | 6365763 | Q3 | PHI Q3 | 29–34 |
WSH
PHI
DET
SEA
LAR
SF
ARI
CAR
ATL
IND
NYG
DAL
TB
CHI
TEN
DEN
LAC
BUF
CLE
KC
HOU
JAX
PIT
BAL
NE
CIN
GB
NOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 141
Q2 17% 49
Q3 11% 30
Q4 20% 57
OT 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 274 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 77% of 273 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 38 | 100% 38 |
| 1–3 | 12 | 92% 11 |
| 4–7 | 32 | 94% 30 |
| 8–10 | 34 | 62% 21 |
| 11–14 | 47 | 57% 27 |
| 15–17 | 39 | 38% 15 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 27% 9 |
| 22+ | 49 | 6% 3 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.