Lee's Family Forum · at UNLV
Closing line
UNLV -12.5✓ TNST covered by 15.5
UNLV -12.5✓ TNST covered by 15.5Closing total161.5Under by 38.5
 TNST | This season | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-5 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 4-5 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 6-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TNST 75–88 UNLV · ✗ UNLV (88%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 29 | 34 | 63 |
| UNLV | 33 | 27 | 60 |
1st half: TNST 29, UNLV 33 (UNLV by 4). The model had UNLV by 7.9 and a total of 76.4 (actual 62).
Team stats
| TNST | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-60 47% | Field goals | 19-51 37% |
| 2-16 13% | 3-pointers | 3-15 20% |
| 5-13 38% | Free throws | 19-32 59% |
| 39 13 off | Rebounds | 36 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 7 |
| 11 | Steals | 12 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 26 | Fouls | 15 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| TNST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Harper II G | 33 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-5 |
| Dante Harris G | 32 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Aaron Nkrumah G | 32 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| Jalen Pitre F | 18 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Antoine Lorick III F | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carlous Williams F | 27 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-2 |
| Kavien Jones F | 13 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| JC Brooks F | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Khalil London G | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Jabrion Spikes G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Damon Howard Jr. G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jayden Jones, Jean Lafleur, Ogien Ayo, Maddux Bodenhamer, Alex Garcia
| UNLV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Hamilton F | 33 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| Issac Williamson G | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Emmanuel Stephen C | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn G | 23 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Walter Brown F | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Howie Fleming Jr. G | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Al Green G | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Tyrin Jones F | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Naas Cunningham F | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Jacob Bannarbie F | 9 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Xavier Brumfield, Jalen Cunningham, Mason Abittan, Myles Che, Ladji Dembele
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNLV -12.5
ModelUNLV -13.3
Model edgeUNLV +0.8
L TNST covered
Total
Market161.5
Model163.4
Model edgeOver 1.9
L Under
Projected score
TNST 75.1 · UNLV 88.3
TNST 63 · UNLV 60
Win probability
UNLV 88%
1st half
Spread
UNLV -7.9
UNLV -4.0
Total
76.4
62 points
Projected score
TNST 34.3 · UNLV 42.1
TNST 29 · UNLV 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNLV -10.5
2 → UNLV
CloseUNLV -12.5
2 pts toward UNLV
Total
Open161.5
no move
Close161.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TNST +600 · UNLV -900
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNLV -10.5 · closed UNLV -12.5 · moved 2 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -13.5
model UNLV -13.5
Opened 161.5 · unchangedmodel 163.5
model 163.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNSTlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| UNLVlast 9 | 4-5 44% | 4-5 44% | 6-3 67% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee St
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
BEL
BELL 79-87
+5.5
16
@
WKU
WKUL 82-95
−0.5
20
@
TENN
TENNL 60-89
+2.5
25
@
UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
+7.5
30
@
UTC
UTCW 70-64
+14.5
3
@
AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−31.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@BEL
BELL 79-87
+7.5
16
@WKU
WKUL 82-95
+9.5
20
@TENN
TENNL 60-89
−8.5
25
@UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
−16.5
30
@UTC
UTCW 70-64
−21.5
3
@AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−14.5
over 2under 4avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
UNLV
9 games played
Straight up
4-5
44% wins
Against the spread
4-5
44% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-3
67% overs · avg +7.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs UTM | L 81-86 | -16.5 | L −21.5 | 146.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 8 | vsUTC | W 101-69 | -7.5 | W +24.5 | 155.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 11 | vs MONT | L 93-102 | -10.5 | L −19.5 | 157.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 16 | @ MEM | W 92-78 | +9.5 | W +23.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs JOES | W 99-85 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs MD | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 25 | vs ALA | L 76-115 | +13.5 | L −25.5 | 181.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 27 | vs RUTG | L 65-80 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 7 | @ STAN | W 75-74 | +9.5 | W +10.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsUTM
UTML 81-86
−21.5
8
vsUTC
UTCW 101-69
+24.5
11
vsMONT
MONTL 93-102
−19.5
16
@MEM
MEMW 92-78
+23.5
20
vsJOES
JOESW 99-85
+3.5
24
vsMD
MDL 67-74
−4.5
25
vsALA
ALAL 76-115
−25.5
27
vsRUTG
RUTGL 65-80
−19.5
7
@STAN
STANW 75-74
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsUTM
UTML 81-86
+20.5
8
vsUTC
UTCW 101-69
+14.5
11
vsMONT
MONTL 93-102
+37.5
16
@MEM
MEMW 92-78
+6.5
20
vsJOES
JOESW 99-85
+22.5
24
vsMD
MDL 67-74
−23.5
25
vsALA
ALAL 76-115
+9.5
27
vsRUTG
RUTGL 65-80
−8.5
7
@STAN
STANW 75-74
−15.5
over 6under 3avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee St
2-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Alabama A&M53–80
- W@ Chattanooga70–64
- W@ UNC Asheville75–73
- L@ Tennessee60–89
- L@ Western KY82–95
A week or more of rest.
UNLV
4-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Stanford75–74
- Lvs Rutgers65–80
- Lvs Alabama76–115
- Lvs Maryland67–74
- Wvs Saint Joseph's99–85
6 days since their last game.