When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
284 games · 2024 · pick one to list those games
54% went over. Of the 154 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.
Cover changed hands in the last 5 minutes: 33 games
2024 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
KC -2.5 | 49.5 | 10374361 | Q4 | KC Q4 Late cover flip |
29–32 |
2024 · Week 18 |
CIN -2.5 | 48.5 | 10202336 | U | PIT Q4 Late cover flip |
19–17 |
2024 · Week 18 |
BAL -20.5 | 41.5 | 7172445 | Q4 | BAL Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
10–35 |
2024 · Week 17 |
CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | 310204854 | OT | CIN OT Late cover flip Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 15 |
NYJ -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203357 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
32–25 |
2024 · Week 14 |
CIN -4.5 | 50.5 | 14273447 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
27–20 |
2024 · Week 14 |
NO -5.5 | 41.5 | 7101725 | U | NYG Q4 Late cover flip |
14–11 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 41.5 | 14385673 | Q3 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
32–41 |
2024 · Week 13 |
HOU -3.5 | 44.5 | 092243 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LAC -0.5 | 48.5 | 10304761 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late cover flip |
27–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
BUF -2.5 | 47.5 | 6303051 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
21–30 |
2024 · Week 11 |
PHI -4.5 | 49.5 | 7101644 | U | PHI Q4 Late cover flip |
18–26 |
2024 · Week 10 |
WSH -1.5 | 45.5 | 14314855 | Q3 | PIT Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
28–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 072134 | U | MIN Q3 Late cover flip |
13–21 |
2024 · Week 9 |
PHI -7.5 | 46.5 | 7163851 | Q4 | JAX Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
23–28 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BUF -6.5 | 49.5 | 6163357 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
27–30 |
2024 · Week 8 |
GB -3.5 | 49.5 | 0233757 | Q4 | JAX Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
30–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LAR -7.5 | 43.5 | 0202935 | U | LV Q4 Late cover flip |
15–20 |
2024 · Week 7 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 7132026 | U | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
10–16 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BUF -1.5 | 42.5 | 17374043 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 6 |
CIN -4.5 | 45.5 | 771724 | U | CIN Q4 Late cover flip |
17–7 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BAL -7.5 | 50.5 | 6274053 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
23–30 |
2024 · Week 5 |
BAL -2.5 | 47.5 | 731457679 | Q4 | BAL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
41–38 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MIA -2.5 | 36.5 | 10101925 | U | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
15–10 |
2024 · Week 5 |
JAX -3.5 | 44.5 | 7233071 | Q4 | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
34–37 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ATL -2.5 | 43.5 | 1741476066 | Q3 | ATL OT Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–36 |
2024 · Week 4 |
ATL -2.5 | 42.5 | 14313750 | Q4 | NO Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 14213551 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
HOU -6.5 | 45.5 | 6262632 | U | CHI Q1 Late cover flip |
13–19 |
2024 · Week 2 |
NYJ -3.5 | 42.5 | 7173441 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip |
24–17 |
2024 · Week 2 |
WSH -1.5 | 42.5 | 9212739 | U | WSH Q3 Late cover flip |
18–21 |
2024 · Week 1 |
DET -5.5 | 53.5 | 313274046 | U | DET OT Late cover flip |
20–26 |
2024 · Week 1 |
SEA -6.5 | 42.5 | 6223246 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
20–26 |
BUF
KC
CIN
PIT
CLE
BAL
DEN
NYJ
JAX
DAL
NO
NYG
HOU
LAC
WSH
PHI
IND
MIN
MIA
GB
LV
LAR
NE
TB
ATL
SF
CHI
TEN
DET
SEAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 141
Q2 17% 49
Q3 11% 30
Q4 20% 57
OT 2% 7
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 274 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 84% and covered 77% of 273 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 38 | 100% 38 |
| 1–3 | 12 | 92% 11 |
| 4–7 | 32 | 94% 30 |
| 8–10 | 34 | 62% 21 |
| 11–14 | 47 | 57% 27 |
| 15–17 | 39 | 38% 15 |
| 18–21 | 33 | 27% 9 |
| 22+ | 49 | 6% 3 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.