Xfinity Mobile Arena · at Villanova
Closing line
VILL -18.5✓ VILL covered by 8.5
VILL -18.5✓ VILL covered by 8.5Closing total150.5Over by 2.5
 PENN | This season | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 2-5 | O/U | 3-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PENN 64–85 VILL · ✓ VILL (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENN | 29 | 34 | 63 |
| VILL | 44 | 46 | 90 |
1st half: PENN 29, VILL 44 (VILL by 15). The model had VILL by 13.1 and a total of 69.7 (actual 73).
Team stats
| PENN | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-59 41% | Field goals | 33-60 55% |
| 11-22 50% | 3-pointers | 15-31 48% |
| 4-12 33% | Free throws | 9-13 69% |
| 33 13 off | Rebounds | 38 10 off |
| 19 | Assists | 20 |
| 5 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| PENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Power F | 28 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4-10 | 3-6 |
| Michael Zanoni G | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| AJ Levine G | 16 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Ethan Roberts G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Augustus Gerhart F | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Thrower G | 21 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-3 |
| Lucas Lueth F | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Dalton Scantlebury F | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Jay Jones G | 15 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Dylan Williams G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Johnnie Walter F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Alex Massung G | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Michelangelo Oberti F | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Niklas Polonowski G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Payton Kamin G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| William Kruse F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bradyn Foster, Ryan Altman, Chris Ubochi
| VILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hodge F | 27 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 4-7 |
| Duke Brennan F | 25 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 7-10 | 0-0 |
| Acaden Lewis G | 23 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4-6 | 0-2 |
| Tyler Perkins G | 21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Bryce Lindsay G | 20 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 5-7 | 5-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Devin Askew G | 19 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 7-12 | 3-8 |
| Chris Jeffrey G | 17 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Tafara Gapare F | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Malachi Palmer G | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Braden Pierce C | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Zion Stanford G | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Malcolm Flaggs G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nico Onyekwere, Wade Chiddick
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVILL -18.5
ModelVILL -21.9
Model edgeVILL +3.4
W VILL covered
Total
Market150.5
Model148.8
Model edgeUnder 1.7
L Over
Projected score
PENN 63.5 · VILL 85.4
PENN 63 · VILL 90
Win probability
VILL 97%
1st half
Spread
VILL -13.1
VILL -15.0
Total
69.7
73 points
Projected score
PENN 28.3 · VILL 41.4
PENN 29 · VILL 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVILL -19.5
1 → PENN
CloseVILL -18.5
1 pt toward PENN
Total
Open148.5
▲ 2
Close150.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
PENN +1300 · VILL -2800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VILL -19.5 · closed VILL -18.5 · moved 1 toward PENNmodel VILL -22
model VILL -22
Opened 148.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 2 upmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENNlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 4-3 57% | 2-5 29% |
| VILLlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 5-2 71% | 3-4 43% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
PENN 1–3 VILLVILL leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · PENN 3-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024-25 | PENN 49 @ VILL 93 | VILL -15.5 | VILL W |
| Nov 13, 2023-24 | VILL 72 @ PENN 76 | PENN +11.5 | PENN W |
| Dec 7, 2022-23 | PENN 59 @ VILL 70 | VILL -14.5 | PENN W |
| Dec 1, 2021-22 | VILL 71 @ PENN 56 | PENN +18.5 | PENN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Penn
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-5
29% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ AMER | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | @ PROV | L 81-106 | +19.5 | L −5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 17 | vs JOES | W 83-74 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ DREX | W 84-68 | +4.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 28 | vs MRMK | W 77-65 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs LAS | W 73-71 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 30 | vs HOF | L 60-77 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
−7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
−5.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
+14.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
+20.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
+9.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
+0.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−15.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
+7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
+14.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
−6.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
−0.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
−10.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
−5.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−12.5
over 2under 5avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Villanova
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
BYU
BYUL 66-71
+4.5
8
vs
QUC
QUCW 94-74
+2.5
11
vs
SHU
SHUW 94-60
+14.5
15
vs
DUQ
DUQW 87-77
−0.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
+2.5
25
vs
ODU
ODUW 89-75
−8.5
1
vs
TEM
TEMW 74-56
+3.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
−16.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+17.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
−6.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
+12.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
−19.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
+16.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
−16.5
over 3under 4avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Penn
4-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Ivy League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Hofstra60–77
- Wvs La Salle73–71
- Wvs Merrimack77–65
- W@ Drexel84–68
- Wvs Saint Joseph's83–74
6 days since their last game.
Villanova
6-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Temple74–56
- Wvs Old Dominion89–75
- W@ La Salle70–55
- Wvs Duquesne87–77
- Wvs Sacred Heart94–60
5 days since their last game.