Mohegan Sun Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
PROV -3.5✓ PROV covered by 8.5
PROV -3.5✓ PROV covered by 8.5Closing total165.5Under by 23.5
| PROV | This season | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 5-0 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PROV 85–83 PSU · ✓ PROV (56%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 32 | 45 | 77 |
| PSU | 31 | 34 | 65 |
1st half: PROV 32, PSU 31 (PROV by 1). The model had PROV by 1.1 and a total of 78.4 (actual 63).
Team stats
| PROV | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-69 41% | Field goals | 22-66 33% |
| 6-33 18% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 15-19 79% | Free throws | 13-16 81% |
| 45 14 off | Rebounds | 43 15 off |
| 15 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 2 |
| 6 | Blocks | 1 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mela G | 33 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Stefan Vaaks G | 30 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 5-13 | 3-11 |
| Jason Edwards G | 30 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 3-13 | 1-8 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 28 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 6-16 | 1-9 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 24 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 23 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 16 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jamier Jones G | 14 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Jaylen Harrell G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Nilavan Daniels, Jack Williams, Peteris Pinnis, Duncan Powell
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melih Tunca G | 30 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Ivan Juric F | 30 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Kayden Mingo G | 25 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-8 | 0-2 |
| Josh Reed F | 24 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Eli Rice G | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Freddie Dilione V G | 35 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 8-18 | 4-8 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 18 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Tibor Mirtic F | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Sasa Ciani F | 10 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Justin Houser, Mason Blackwood, Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPROV -3.5
ModelPROV -1.6
Model edgePSU +1.9
L PROV covered
Total
Market165.5
Model167.5
Model edgeOver 2.0
L Under
Projected score
PROV 84.5 · PSU 82.9
PROV 77 · PSU 65
Win probability
PROV 56%
1st half
Spread
PROV -1.1
PROV -1.0
Total
78.4
63 points
Projected score
PROV 39.8 · PSU 38.7
PROV 32 · PSU 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPROV -4.5
1 → PSU
ClosePROV -3.5
1 pt toward PSU
Total
Open160.5
▲ 5
Close165.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
PROV -170 · PSU +145
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PROV -4.5 · closed PROV -3.5 · moved 1 toward PSUmodel PROV -1.5
model PROV -1.5
Opened 160.5 · closed 165.5 · moved 5 upmodel 167.5
model 167.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROVlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% | 5-0 100% |
| PSUlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 2-3 40% | 2-3 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Providence
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-0
100% overs · avg +20.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
HC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vs
VT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vs
PENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@
COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vs
UNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
over 5under 0avg +20.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn State
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
FAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@
NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vs
NAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vs
LAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vs
HARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
over 2under 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Providence
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs New Hampshire98–66
- L@ Colorado88–97
- Wvs Penn106–81
- Lvs Virginia Tech101–107
- Wvs Holy Cross89–79
4 days since their last game.
Penn State
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Harvard84–80
- Wvs La Salle83–69
- Wvs Navy80–71
- W@ New Haven87–43
- Wvs Fairfield76–68
3 days since their last game.