Lahaina Civic Center · Neutral site
Closing line
USC -3.5✓ BOIS covered by 0.5
USC -3.5✓ BOIS covered by 0.5Closing total155.5Under by 18.5
| USC | This season | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 4-0 |
| 3-1 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 2-2 | O/U | 1-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 82–77 BOIS · ✓ USC (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 34 | 36 | 70 |
| BOIS | 32 | 35 | 67 |
1st half: USC 34, BOIS 32 (USC by 2). The model had USC by 3.2 and a total of 74.7 (actual 66).
Team stats
| USC | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-54 44% | Field goals | 26-63 41% |
| 11-23 48% | 3-pointers | 5-25 20% |
| 11-17 65% | Free throws | 10-11 91% |
| 31 7 off | Rebounds | 36 12 off |
| 11 | Assists | 7 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 7 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Rice G | 35 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 11-21 | 4-7 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 34 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 29 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 26 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Marsh G | 21 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Amarion Dickerson F | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Alijah Arenas, Ryan Cornish
| BOIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javan Buchanan F | 33 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 6-16 | 1-7 |
| Dylan Andrews G | 31 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Andrew Meadow F | 26 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Drew Fielder F | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-8 | 0-2 |
| R.J. Keene II G | 19 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Pearson Carmichael F | 22 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 5-10 | 1-5 |
| Aginaldo Neto G | 19 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Dominic Parolin F | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Spencer Ahrens F | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Julian Bowie G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Noah Bendinger, Bhan Buom, Brennan Ramirez, Rayzhon Bergersen, Ethan Lathan
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSC -3.5
ModelUSC -5.0
Model edgeUSC +1.5
L BOIS covered
Total
Market155.5
Model159.5
Model edgeOver 4.0
L Under
Projected score
USC 82.2 · BOIS 77.3
USC 70 · BOIS 67
Win probability
USC 67%
1st half
Spread
USC -3.2
USC -2.0
Total
74.7
66 points
Projected score
USC 38.9 · BOIS 35.8
USC 34 · BOIS 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -4.5
1 → BOIS
CloseUSC -3.5
1 pt toward BOIS
Total
Open155.5
no move
Close155.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
USC -205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -4.5 · closed USC -3.5 · moved 1 toward BOISmodel USC -5
model USC -5
Opened 155.5 · unchangedmodel 159.5
model 159.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USClast 4 | 4-0 100% | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% |
| BOISlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +22 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vs
MAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vs
ILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vs
TROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
over 2under 2avg +22 ptslonger = bigger margin
Boise St
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −10.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vs
UVU
UVUW 101-77
+11.5
11
vs
RGV
RGVW 85-65
+3.5
15
vs
MTST
MTSTW 62-58
−12.5
18
vs
WICH
WICHW 62-59
−6.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsUVU
UVUW 101-77
+26.5
11
vsRGV
RGVW 85-65
−11.5
15
vsMTST
MTSTW 62-58
−27.5
18
vsWICH
WICHW 62-59
−29.5
over 1under 3avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Troy107–106
- Wvs Illinois St87–67
- Wvs Manhattan114–83
- Wvs Cal Poly94–64
4 days since their last game.
Boise St
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wichita St62–59
- Wvs Montana St62–58
- Wvs UT Rio Grande85–65
- Wvs Utah Valley101–77
6 days since their last game.