1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · College

College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Totals 68.5–76.5 ✕

When did they go over?

39 games · 2023–2026 · Totals 68.5–76.5 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games39100%By halftime00%In Q3513%In Q41026%In OT00%Stayed under2462%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands513%Over cashed615%Leader lost the game38%
38% went over. Of the 15 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 37% of games.

All 39 games

2023–2026 · Totals 68.5–76.5 · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 7
 TXST -15.5 69.5 21669393 Q3 TXST Q1 27–66
MUR @ OKST
2026 · Week 3
 OKST -56.5 70.5 14315259 U OKST Q4 0–59
PRST @ ORE
2026 · Week 3
 ORE -58.5 71.5 28496384 Q4 ORE Q3 0–84
2025 · Week 13
 USF -22.5 68.5 17274466 U USF Q3 48–18
2025 · Week 12
 UNLV -4.5 68.5 923334655 U USU Q1
Lead lost
 26–29
2025 · Week 12
 UNT -17.5 69.5 21386477 Q4 UNT Q1 53–24
2025 · Week 11
 SJSU -6.5 68.5 3192242 U AFA Q1 26–16
2025 · Week 10
 UNT -6.5 68.5 14344848 U UNT Q1 17–31
2025 · Week 9
 CIN -3.5 69.5 14303961 U CIN Q1 20–41
2025 · Week 8
 USF -20.5 72.5 10274461 U USF Q4 13–48
2025 · Week 7
 TENN -10.5 68.5 17344465 U ARK Q1 31–34
2025 · Week 7
 UNT -2.5 68.5 21427799 Q3 USF Q2 63–36
2025 · Week 4
 TENN -38.5 68.5 21497380 Q3 UAB Q4
Late cover flip
 24–56
2024 · Week 13
 UNT -2.5 73.5 14285968 U ECU Q3 40–28
2024 · Week 12
 WSU -11.5 71.5 21425673 Q4 UNM Q3
Late over
 35–38
2024 · Week 12
 UTSA -1.5 71.5 14345075 Q4 UTSA Q1
Late over
 27–48
2024 · Week 11
 TCU -10.5 69.5 10243751 U TCU Q2 13–38
2024 · Week 9
 TULN -7.5 69.5 24486982 Q4 TULN Q1
Late over
 45–37
2024 · Week 4
 MISS -35.5 68.5 17314865 U MISS Q4 13–52
SFA @ UNT
2024 · Week 2
 UNT -21.5 72.5 24384855 U SFA Q1 20–35
TNTC @ UGA
2024 · Week 2
 UGA -54.5 68.5 14244551 U TNTC Q1 3–48
2023 · Postseason
 ORE -18.5 71 9374451 U ORE Q2 6–45
2023 · Week 13
 UNT -2 72 20425387 Q4 UNT Q4 42–45
2023 · Week 12
 LSU -32.5 74 21495670 U LSU Q4 14–56
2023 · Week 12
 UNT -2 69 14425663 U UNT Q3 35–28
2023 · Week 11
 USF -7 70 17303750 U TEM Q4 23–27
2023 · Week 10
 WASH -3 75.5 21638494 Q3 WASH Q4
Late cover flip
 52–42
2023 · Week 10
 TXST -2.5 68.5 17416269 Q4 TXST Q2 24–45
2023 · Week 10
 UTSA -8 70 10404366 U Push 37–29
CAM @ UNC
2023 · Week 10
 UNC -38 68.5 14355266 U UNC Q4 7–59
2023 · Week 9
 MEM -6.5 69.5 21415287 Q4 UNT Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 45–42
2023 · Week 7
 WASH -3.5 68.5 22405569 Q4 ORE Q3
Late over Lead lost
 33–36
ACU @ UNT
2023 · Week 5
 UNT -15.5 70.5 31486976 Q4 ACU Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 31–45
2023 · Week 5
 USC -22.5 74 14487589 Q3 COLO Q1 48–41
2023 · Week 4
 ORE -21.5 70.5 13354248 U ORE Q2 6–42
TAR @ TTU
2023 · Week 3
 TTU -36.5 75.5 21243444 U TTU Q4 3–41
2023 · Week 2
 USC -28.5 70.5 21525266 U USC Q2 10–56
2023 · Week 2
 ORE -4.5 70 22314568 U ORE Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 38–30
2023 · Week 2
 OU -16 70 10171739 U OU Q4 11–28
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 12
Q2 15% 6
Q3 15% 6
Q4 36% 14
OT 0% 0
Push 3% 1
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 67% of 36 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 95% and covered 65% of 37 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over5100% 5
1–32100% 2
4–72100% 2
8–101100% 1
11–14250% 1
15–17333% 1
18–21729% 2
22+176% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.