1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 2
  3. CAN @ PSU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 2

Canisius Golden Griffins at Penn State Nittany Lions

Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State
#359CANCanisius
@
#78PSUPenn State
LinePSU -22.5no move
Total152.5no move
CANThis seasonPSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PSU 87–60 · win probability PSU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
PSU -22.5
no move since the open
Total
152.5
model 146.6 · Under by 6
Model edge
PSU by 5
model vs market
Public on the spread
97% CAN
85% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

CAN 2, PSU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
CAN has played the 337th-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
PSUBig
CAN offense vs PSU defense
Offense 358th of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings
PSUBig
PSU offense vs CAN defense
Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 321st, on the model’s ratings
PSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CAN 19.6%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: CAN 16.0%, PSU 17.7%
CANBig
Three-pointers
CAN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 39.5% and 38.0% of their shots
PSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CAN 31.4, PSU 33.8. Allowed: CAN 35.2, PSU 27.5
CANSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CAN 29.3%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: CAN 70.2%, PSU 68.8%
PSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CAN 46.3 and allows 52.2; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4
PSUSmall
Home court
PSU at home. This season: PSU 0-0 at home, CAN 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: CAN plays 64.6 a game (353rd fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points
PSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CAN 1%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: CAN 6, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%
A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
CAN +2100 · PSU -10000
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened PSU -22.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -27.5
Opened 152.5 · unchangedmodel 146.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
CAN +22.5SpreadPSU -22.5
Bets
Money
Money is 12 pts ahead of bets on PSU -22.5
Over 152.5TotalUnder 152.5
Bets
Money
CANWinnerPSU
Bets
Money
Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read . ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
CANPSUOverUnderCANPSU
BetMGMMGM-22.5-105+22.5-115152.5-110152.5-110+2000-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-22.5-110+22.5-110152.5-110152.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-21.5-105+21.5-120152.5-115152.5-108——
BetUSBetUS-22.5-110+22.5-110152.5-110152.5-110——
BovadaBovada-23-115+23-105152-120152+100+1600-10000
DraftKingsDK-22.5-108+22.5-112152.5-110152.5-110+2200-8000
FanDuelFD-22.5-110+22.5-110152.5-110152.5-110+2400-10000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-22.5-106+22.5-106152.5-108152.5-108——
Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadPSU -22.5PSU -27.6PSU +5.1
Total152.5146.6Under 5.9
Projected score—CAN 59.5 · PSU 87.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPSU -16.3—
1H total68.6—
1H projected scoreCAN 26.1 · PSU 42.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Penn State has the better starters

Position by position: Canisius 0, Penn State 4, even 1
CanisiusBetterPenn State
G V. Sigona TR7.5 pts · 1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 22
PSUSmall
G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45
G M. Wilson TR4.9 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 18
PSUSmall
G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49
G D. Winters TR1.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
F P. Ryan TR6.8 pts · 4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 7
PSUBig
F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82
F C. Efinda TR4.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
PSUBig
F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61
CanisiusBetterPenn State
CAN offense358th of 366 · -14.0
PSUBig
PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8
CAN defense321st of 366 · -8.3
PSUBig
PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7
Backcourt-3.5 · 3 players
PSUSmall
Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-4.4 · 2 players
PSUBig
Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Bench-0.4 · 2 players
PSUSmall
Bench+2.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCAN betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Canisius
Guards
V. Sigona20 min · TRM. Wilson13 min · TRD. Winters6 min · TRT. Augustine2 minC. FrancisNewW. FowlerNew
Forwards
P. Ryan23 min · TRC. Efinda15 min · TRN. Deer3 min · TRN. FoutsNewW. TaylorNewA. RiakNew
Penn State
Guards
D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew
Forwards
B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CANPSU
Scoring
62.2 #361Points per game73.7 #211
0.96 #349Points per possession1.09 #148
64.6 #353Pace (possessions)67.5 #255
Shooting
46.3 #348Effective FG%53.0 #102
33.3 #2133-point %32.4 #263
39.5 #1823-point attempt rate38.0 #214
31.4 #271Free throw rate33.8 #219
Possessions
19.6 #341Turnover rate15.6 #113
29.3 #226Offensive rebound rate25.9 #325
11.9 #293Assists per game12.7 #238
Defense
71.4 #87Points allowed79.3 #308
1.10 #228Points allowed per possession1.17 #345
52.2 #225Opponent effective FG%58.4 #363
33.0 #124Opponent 3-point %38.8 #363
16.0 #222Turnovers forced17.7 #115
70.2 #151Defensive rebound rate68.8 #210
4.8 #342Steals per game6.9 #132
2.6 #292Blocks per game1.7 #357
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Canisius

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Quinnipiac63–67
  • Wvs Merrimack67–62
  • L@ Mount St Marys47–68
  • W@ Rider72–66
  • Lvs Manhattan65–69

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern66–76
  • L@ Rutgers62–74
  • Lvs Ohio State62–94
  • Wvs Iowa71–69
  • L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.