Kent State Golden Flashes at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETThomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech

LineKENT -5.5no move

Total145.5up 1 from 144.5

Season records: Kent State and Louisiana Tech
KENT	This season	LT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KENT 74–72 · win probability KENT 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

KENT -5.5

no move since the open

Total

145.5

model 145.8

Model edge

LT by 3

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KENT has more of the edges

KENT 5, LT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: KENT plays 73.3 a game (17th fastest), LT 65.5 (332nd). Faster games mean more points

KENTSmall

LT offense vs KENT defense

Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 196th, on the model’s ratings

KENTSmall

Three-pointers

KENT hits 35.0% and allows 35.0%; LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 44.9% and 33.4% of their shots

KENTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: KENT 43.5, LT 33.1. Allowed: KENT 39.5, LT 36.3

KENTSmall

KENT offense vs LT defense

Offense 128th of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings

LTSmall

Home court

LT at home. This season: LT 0-0 at home, KENT 0-0 away

LTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: KENT 17.9%, LT 18.2%. Forced: KENT 16.1%, LT 17.9%

KENTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: KENT 35.3%, LT 36.4%. Defensive: KENT 70.7%, LT 68.4%

Context

Schedule so far

KENT has played the 179th-hardest schedule, LT the 197th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: KENT 19%, LT 11%. Transfers in: KENT 5, LT 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: KENT 51.4 and allows 52.1; LT 47.4 and allows 48.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	1543	67%	51%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1736	67%	50%	49%
Games with a total of 145 to 149.5	3547	74%	49%	50%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenKENT -5.5

no move

NowKENT -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open144.5

▲ 1

Now145.5

Up 1 since the open

Moneyline

KENT -250 · LT +200

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened KENT -5.5 · unchangedmodel KENT -2.5

model KENT -2.5

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Over 145.5TotalUnder 145.5

Bets

76%24%

Money

75%25%

KENTWinner

Bets

93%

Money

99%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	KENT	LT	Over	Under	KENT	LT
BetMGMMGM	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	145.5-105	145.5-115	-250	+200
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	145-110	145-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+5.5-113	-5.5-113	144.5-114	144.5-112	-265	+195
BetUSBetUS	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	145-110	145-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	+5.5-115	-5.5-105	145-110	145-110	-240	+200
DraftKingsDK	+5.5-112	-5.5-108	145.5-105	145.5-115	-250	+205
FanDuelFD	+5.5-114	-5.5-106	145.5-110	145.5-110	-245	+198
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+5.5-106	-5.5-106	145-108	145-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	KENT -5.5	KENT -2.7	LT +2.8
Total	145.5	145.8	Over 0.3
Projected score	—	KENT 74.3 · LT 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENT -1.8	—
1H total	68.2	—
1H projected score	KENT 35 · LT 33.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT WLWLL	12-20	38%	5-8	11-15
LT WWWWL	17-14	55%	8-6	11-9

Venue/role: KENT away, as favorite; LT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT OOUUU	17-15	53%	22-10
LT OUOOU	16-15	52%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
LT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kent State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ UNCW	W86–77WO
Nov 16	vs EKU	W93–78WO
Nov 21	@ CLE	W91–71WU

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ LSU	L57–66WU
Nov 14	@ NICH	W68–55LU
Nov 17	vs JXST	W77–71WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kent State

32 games played

Straight up

22-10

69% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1069%

L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W W L W W L W L W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W W L L W W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O O O U O U O O U O U O O O O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTROY	L 97-103	-3.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	vsCOR	W 110-102	-6.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 10	vsUNCW	W 86-77	-3.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsCLE	W 102-95	-11.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsWRST	W 76-72	-4.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 18	vsEKU	W 93-78	-10.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 171
Nov 22	vsCLE	W 91-71	-15.5	W +4.5	172.5	U 162
Dec 3	vsAPSU	W 96-84	-8.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 180
Dec 14	@PORT	L 78-88	-7.5	L −17.5	160.5	O 166
Dec 20	@MASS	W 69-59	-1.5	W +8.5	163.5	U 128
Dec 29	@PUR	L 60-101	+24.5	L −16.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 3	vsNIU	W 77-73	-16.5	L −12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsBGSU	W 96-93	-3.5	L −0.5	155.5	O 189
Jan 10	@CMU	L 85-87	-10.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 13	@BUF	W 87-81	-2.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 168
Jan 16	vsTOL	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	vsM-OH	L 101-107	-1.5	L −7.5	167.5	O 208
Jan 24	@EMU	W 76-75	-4.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 27	vsOHIO	W 72-57	-5.5	W +9.5	162.5	U 129
Jan 30	@AKR	L 52-69	+10.5	L −6.5	166.5	U 121
Feb 3	@TOL	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@USM	L 65-66	-4.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsEMU	W 95-91	-10.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 186
Feb 14	@BALL	W 75-68	-7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 143
Feb 17	@BGSU	W 78-71	+1.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 149
Feb 24	vsCMU	W 83-81	-11.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 164
Feb 27	vsAKR	L 70-92	+3.5	L −18.5	166.5	U 162
Mar 3	@NIU	W 102-76	-10.5	W +15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	vsWMU	W 86-78	-13.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 164
Mar 12	vsOHIO	W 86-75	-3.5	W +7.5	161.5	U 161
Mar 13	vsAKR	L 68-75	+6.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 143
Mar 18	@ILST	L 58-79	+4.5	L −16.5	154.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TROY

L 97-103

−9.5

COR

W 110-102

+1.5

UNCW

W 86-77

+5.5

CLE

W 102-95

−4.5

WRST

W 76-72

−0.5

EKU

W 93-78

+4.5

CLE

W 91-71

+4.5

APSU

W 96-84

+3.5

PORT

L 78-88

−17.5

MASS

W 69-59

+8.5

PUR

L 60-101

−16.5

NIU

W 77-73

−12.5

BGSU

W 96-93

−0.5

CMU

L 85-87

−12.5

BUF

W 87-81

+3.5

TOL

W 87-84

−2.5

M-OH

L 101-107

−7.5

EMU

W 76-75

−3.5

OHIO

W 72-57

+9.5

AKR

L 52-69

−6.5

TOL

W 75-72

+1.5

USM

L 65-66

−5.5

EMU

W 95-91

−6.5

BALL

W 75-68

−0.5

BGSU

W 78-71

+8.5

CMU

W 83-81

−9.5

AKR

L 70-92

−18.5

NIU

W 102-76

+15.5

WMU

W 86-78

−5.5

OHIO

W 86-75

+7.5

AKR

L 68-75

−0.5

ILST

L 58-79

−16.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TROY

L 97-103

+57.5

COR

W 110-102

+47.5

UNCW

W 86-77

+6.5

CLE

W 102-95

+31.5

WRST

W 76-72

−9.5

EKU

W 93-78

+9.5

CLE

W 91-71

−10.5

APSU

W 96-84

+26.5

PORT

L 78-88

+5.5

MASS

W 69-59

−35.5

PUR

L 60-101

+5.5

NIU

W 77-73

−7.5

BGSU

W 96-93

+33.5

CMU

L 85-87

+15.5

BUF

W 87-81

+2.5

TOL

W 87-84

+2.5

M-OH

L 101-107

+40.5

EMU

W 76-75

−3.5

OHIO

W 72-57

−33.5

AKR

L 52-69

−45.5

TOL

W 75-72

−14.5

USM

L 65-66

−19.5

EMU

W 95-91

+40.5

BALL

W 75-68

−0.5

BGSU

W 78-71

−2.5

CMU

W 83-81

+7.5

AKR

L 70-92

−4.5

NIU

W 102-76

+29.5

WMU

W 86-78

+6.5

OHIO

W 86-75

−0.5

AKR

L 68-75

−20.5

ILST

L 58-79

−17.5

over 17under 15avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana Tech

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

17-14

55% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L W W L L W W L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1455%

L W L L W L W L W L W L L W W W W L L W W L W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

U U U O O O U U O O U U O U U O U O U O O U O U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 29	vsALCN	W 83-58	-16.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@GASO	L 69-77	+1.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsUL	W 65-44	-9.5	W +11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 17	@TULN	L 53-61	+4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 29	vsUTEP	W 75-63	-2.5	W +9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MTSU	L 51-88	+6.5	L −30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	@WKU	L 61-66	+9.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsLIB	L 56-72	+4.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsDEL	W 70-68	-6.5	L −4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 14	vsMTSU	W 59-58	+3.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 117
Jan 17	@JXST	L 60-64	+4.5	W +0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsKENN	W 82-76	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 28	@UTEP	W 69-59	+2.5	W +12.5	130.5	U 128
Jan 31	@SHSU	L 67-83	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsNMSU	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 7	vsSHSU	W 87-78	+3.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 165
Feb 12	@MOST	W 79-78	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	@FIU	L 64-77	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 18	vsJXST	W 77-71	-2.5	W +3.5	132.5	O 148
Feb 21	@KENN	L 55-58	+5.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 113
Feb 26	vsMOST	W 72-70	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	vsFIU	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Mar 5	@LIB	W 76-71	+8.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 147
Mar 7	@DEL	W 81-38	-2.5	W +40.5	132.5	U 119
Mar 12	vsMTSU	W 80-69	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 149
Mar 13	vsMOST	W 69-66	+1.5	W +4.5	134.5	O 135
Mar 14	vsKENN	L 60-71	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+8.5

GASO

L 69-77

−6.5

W 65-44

+11.5

TULN

L 53-61

−3.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+9.5

MTSU

L 51-88

−30.5

WKU

L 61-66

+4.5

LIB

L 56-72

−11.5

DEL

W 70-68

−4.5

MTSU

W 59-58

+4.5

JXST

L 60-64

+0.5

KENN

W 82-76

+7.5

UTEP

W 69-59

+12.5

SHSU

L 67-83

−8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−10.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+12.5

MOST

W 79-78

+4.5

FIU

L 64-77

−9.5

JXST

W 77-71

+3.5

KENN

L 55-58

+2.5

MOST

W 72-70

−0.5

FIU

L 76-84

−10.5

LIB

W 76-71

+13.5

DEL

W 81-38

+40.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+12.5

MOST

W 69-66

+4.5

KENN

L 60-71

−9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+3.5

GASO

L 69-77

+0.5

W 65-44

−17.5

TULN

L 53-61

−26.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+7.5

MTSU

L 51-88

+4.5

WKU

L 61-66

−18.5

LIB

L 56-72

−7.5

DEL

W 70-68

+14.5

MTSU

W 59-58

−14.5

JXST

L 60-64

−3.5

KENN

W 82-76

+13.5

UTEP

W 69-59

−2.5

SHSU

L 67-83

+8.5

NMSU

L 63-72

−0.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+21.5

MOST

W 79-78

+20.5

FIU

L 64-77

−5.5

JXST

W 77-71

+15.5

KENN

L 55-58

−34.5

MOST

W 72-70

+3.5

FIU

L 76-84

+14.5

LIB

W 76-71

+10.5

DEL

W 81-38

−13.5

MTSU

W 80-69

+14.5

MOST

W 69-66

+0.5

KENN

L 60-71

−11.5

over 16under 15avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kent State has the better starters

Position by position: Kent State 1, Louisiana Tech 0, even 4

Kent StateBetterLouisiana Tech

G C. Henry TR11.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.1 ast Score 66

KENTBig

G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

G C. Willis TR6.3 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

G Q. Woidke9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 69

No call

G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F C. Williams TR9.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 52

No call

F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F G. Nwabude TR5.1 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 57

No call

F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

Kent StateBetterLouisiana Tech

KENT offense128th of 366 · -3.5

KENTSmall

LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3

KENT defense196th of 366 · -4.8

KENTSmall

LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

KENTSmall

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-2.3 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestKENT betterLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kent State

Guards

C. Henry29 min · TRC. Willis27 min · TRQ. Woidke20 minB. Moss5 minD. Lakatos1 minJ. SumlinNew

Forwards

C. Williams24 min · TRG. Nwabude19 min · TRL. Diouf13 min · TRD. Briscoe8 minL. Vanderwarker4 minJ. TownsendNew

Louisiana Tech

Guards

J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew

Forwards

E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

KENT82.3 #31

LT67.8 #318

Points per possession

KENT1.12 #102

LT1.03 #284

Pace (possessions)

KENT73.3 #17

LT65.5 #332

Shooting

Effective FG%

KENT51.4 #175

LT47.4 #329

3-point %

KENT35.0 #118

LT28.6 #359

3-point attempt rate

KENT44.9 #69

LT33.4 #310

Free throw rate

KENT43.5 #15

LT33.1 #234

Possessions

Turnover rate

KENT17.9 #268

LT18.2 #283

Offensive rebound rate

KENT35.3 #39

LT36.4 #21

Assists per game

KENT15.1 #81

LT11.9 #297

Defense

Points allowed

KENT80.6 #328

LT67.8 #30

Points allowed per possession

KENT1.10 #221

LT1.04 #75

Opponent effective FG%

KENT52.1 #219

LT48.7 #51

Opponent 3-point %

KENT35.0 #246

LT33.9 #178

Turnovers forced

KENT16.1 #219

LT17.9 #102

Defensive rebound rate

KENT70.7 #124

LT68.4 #232

Steals per game

KENT6.5 #174

LT6.8 #144

Blocks per game

KENT3.3 #184

LT4.6 #31

KENT		LT
Scoring
82.3 #31	Points per game	67.8 #318
1.12 #102	Points per possession	1.03 #284
73.3 #17	Pace (possessions)	65.5 #332
Shooting
51.4 #175	Effective FG%	47.4 #329
35.0 #118	3-point %	28.6 #359
44.9 #69	3-point attempt rate	33.4 #310
43.5 #15	Free throw rate	33.1 #234
Possessions
17.9 #268	Turnover rate	18.2 #283
35.3 #39	Offensive rebound rate	36.4 #21
15.1 #81	Assists per game	11.9 #297
Defense
80.6 #328	Points allowed	67.8 #30
1.10 #221	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #75
52.1 #219	Opponent effective FG%	48.7 #51
35.0 #246	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #178
16.1 #219	Turnovers forced	17.9 #102
70.7 #124	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #232
6.5 #174	Steals per game	6.8 #144
3.3 #184	Blocks per game	4.6 #31

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kent State

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Illinois St58–79
Lvs Akron68–75
Wvs Ohio86–75
Wvs W Michigan86–78
W@ N Illinois102–76

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
Wvs Missouri St69–66
Wvs MTSU80–69
W@ Delaware81–38
W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.